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Danny Haiphong · 848.6K views · 46.1K likes
Analysis Summary
Ask yourself: “Who gets to be a full, complicated person in this video and who gets reduced to a type?”
Us vs. Them
Dividing the world into two camps — people like us (good, trustworthy) and people not like us (dangerous, wrong). It exploits a deep human tendency to favor our own group. Once you accept the division, information from "them" gets automatically discounted.
Tajfel's Social Identity Theory (1979); Minimal Group Paradigm
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- Elijah Magnier's decades of on-ground experience in Iran/Iraq/Syria/Lebanon provides granular tactical insights into missile strategies, economic targeting, and Iranian resilience not commonly found in mainstream coverage.
Be Aware
Cautionary elements
- Us vs. Them framing that systematically vilifies US/Israel leaders and actions while lionizing Iranian resolve.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
Knowing about these techniques makes them visible, not powerless. The ones that work best on you are the ones that match beliefs you already hold.
This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
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Transcript
Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. As you can see, I am joined by veteran war correspondent, military analyst, and independent journalist Elijah Magnier. Elijah, great to be back with you today. >> It's a pleasure to be with you. Thank you for having me. >> Yes, everyone, hit the like button. That will uh boost the show in YouTube's algorithm and help this conversation be seen far and wide. But without further ado, Elijah, I want to get started with uh Operation True Promise for wave number 27 and 28 as announced by Iran. Uh so you might have seen the images of course of Iran um after the US and Israel struck oil refineries in the south of Tehran. uh that there is now black uh clouds of smoke um which which are supposedly raining black rain uh which is very unsafe. Now in retaliation to this of course Iran uh fired ballistic missiles at and they say more advanced ballistic missiles at Hifa and I'll just uh put the um uh the images up here of that. So this is of Hifa's oil refinery burning after those attacks. We also know that uh Hezbollah was also additionally attacking Hifa over the course of the last 24 hours. And uh we also know that Iran has been announcing that they are actually going to increase their attacks Elijah in the coming days and weeks by they say 100%. So talk to me about where the war is. What's the significance of now oil infrastructure becoming involved? And uh what do you expect >> now? First of all, this war is illegal and unlawful. There is no mandate by the United Nations. The Americans decided to go to war thinking that this is going to be a prominade. There's few days Donald Trump said that the f first beginning is going to be three four days and that said expecting that Iran is not going to be uh responding or retaliate. He started by telling us this is a war to change the regime. Now, Donald Trump has no experience in comparison to Benjamin Netanyahu who has a lot of experience and he said we are preparing the ground for a regime change without putting a time limit because he knows an campaign doesn't really change a ruling system in a country. But Donald Trump then went on the next day saying, "Oh no, I don't want to change the regime because we killed the nominee I want to be part of the selection of the uh new leader. So I I mean in my decades of war experience and covering Iran even on the ground the Iran Iraq war and the Iranian presence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon etc. I was not aware that the uh council assembly of expert have to have 88 expert. There were 59 the beginning but now they became 88 expert and I didn't know that Donald Trump has become a granayata to join them and then be part of the decision makers. So it it indicates his really complete absent knowledge of how Iran functioned, the culture, the system, the constitution and he thought that well actually like Venezuela I I asked the vice president to continue running the country and they accept and that's it. He doesn't understand. He's dealing with an ideological state and they have rules and constitution and they are very proud people with thousands of years of ancient civilization and they will not accept. >> You were talking about how Iran is a proud Iranians are proud people with ancient civilization. Trump doesn't understand and maybe you can get into uh now uh what what you're what we're witnessing with this retaliation on Hifa and elsewhere. So the retaliation for the Iranian today is uh an existential war. Therefore they will retaliate against Hifa. They will retaliate against Tel Aviv. This is what they are doing. And actually they don't need more than 10 to 20 missiles per day to continue the war and impose a ceasefire when the Americans are tired of this war and its consequences. Because today we see the consequences are extremely heavy on the Arab countries and they are questioning the presence of the Americans that fur they cannot defend themselves because according to the New York Times satellite images the US bases either completely destroyed or severely damaged and also the Iranians are following the the US personnel in hotels in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, in Riyad and in some other places in the Gulf which mean that the Americans are no longer capable of protecting themselves and they certainly not trying to protect the Arabs relying on the Arab defense system because the bulk of all the interception missile system is in Jordan and Israel to make sure that even if the interception missiles in Jordan are intercepted the debris fall on the Jordanian not on the Israelis. So for Iran, this existential war will not stop without a deal where the Iran where the Israelis and the uh Americans will not start again the war. that so far this duo is inflicting a serious damage on the Iranian economy because they not uh going after the Iranian nuclear bomb because Iran doesn't have a bomb and they are not going uh behind the Iranian missile program because they are the producer. They have the know the knowledge and they can reproduce missiles. But they're going after the Iranian economy to destroy Iran's economy. Make sure whoever is going to rule Iran after the war, the same ruling system or not, is going to be busy for the next 20 years to reconstruct Iran. >> Yeah. Uh I that that's really important, Elijah. Now, I'm just going to pull up because uh as Iran was targeting Hifa, it has also escalated. I think as we speak, there have been multiple rounds of strikes on Tel Aviv um you know, in the in the hours before our show. And uh you know I wanted to get your assessment of this as I as I pull up some of the images of of the damage and and what exactly are the costs that Iran is enacting because I think a lot of people are concerned about exactly as you said the costs that Iran is paying uh from these strikes by the US and Israel. But what are the costs that Iran is inflicting on Israel? You name some uh in the Gulf. Uh but in particular, how how does this uh uh uh uh strategy by Iran and what it is doing in Operation True Promise 4 up until this point now 20 plus waves in uh uh go along with uh what Iran is trying to achieve here. >> The US The US and the Israelis are bombing Thran like nobody's business for Iran. The Americans and the Israelis cannot threaten the Iranians with a bucket of water if they are in the middle of the ocean. Because of that, the Iranians will continue bombing where it hurts Washington the most. In Tel Aviv, Hifa is the industry and the naval base and also oil depot. and they're going to continue bombing the facilities in the Arab countries that they can reach and where these facilities are less protected because the Americans did not invest really in protected them. They uh sold the Arabs the protection interception system but not for this long war. And it shows that they really did not foresee uh an attack from Iran with drones. They not experience in how they hand down drones. This is why in Kuwait they shot down three F-16E oh F-15 sorry uh f as a friendly fire and they are confused with a war they not used to uh engage with for the Iranians they have been preparing for this war they have been engaged in a war before that in June 2025 and they will continue bombing Hifa in Tel Aviv because 81% of the population in Israel support Netanyahu including the opposition. This is why they want to make sure that the Israeli society will reach a point where they will stand up against Benjamin Netanyahu and ask him to stop. Now that is going to be extremely difficult to reach but also more difficult for Netanyahu to accept because then he will fall in his forthcoming elections and ask he did not ask forgiveness for his corruption cases from the president that he cannot pardon him because he did not ask to be forgiven then he will go to jail and he will face three corruption cases. So for Benjamin Netanyahu it is an existential uh political role for his future but for Iran it is for their survival. Either the country will be in ruin and nobody pays and compensate all the damage or Iran will continue firing to the last IRGC man with the last missile Israel and the Arab Gulf to put pressure on the Americans because they have started the war on behalf of Benjamin Netanyao because Iran doesn't represent really a danger to the American national security. Yeah. And Elijah, the uh of course we know Israel and the United States Sentcom uh they're working overtime to censor any kind of uh images and videos and information coming out about what Iran is doing. And I wanted to uh just uh show that this is becoming increasingly hard to do. So, we have here is an NBC clip um where they are talking the NBC uh media pundits. They're talking as they are showing uh Iran uh launching and and is succeeding in hitting Tel Aviv. I'll just play that really quick. >> The Israelis, I think that's what the calculation now is. Regime regime preservation. Could you get a more pragmatic figure presiding? So uh there is that evidence and then uh we also have of course on the bases there was that brief period Elijah where Pzeskin and Iran said they weren't going to hit the Gulf States or surrounding countries in the region uh as long as their bases aren't used and their assets aren't used the assets of the United States aren't used to fire on them. Uh of course that was immediately shot down by the United States and they kept on using them for those purposes. But here's Americans actually in Kuwait um at au at an air base in Kuwait uh uh showing and demonstrating exactly what Iran is doing. >> No, they missed it again. >> They hit the base of it and knocked the lights out on that [ __ ] >> So, it's getting harder and harder to hide these things, Elijah. And uh uh so what do you what what do you uh see in terms of there's a lot of people who watch this channel who are concerned about Iran. How how long can Iran do you feel? Uh do you believe them when they say they can go six months, they can go a year? And can the US last that long? Because they're talking about this now as a long war. Oh, hold on. Sorry about that. Continue. The Israelis and the Americans are going very heavily on Iran because the Americans are in a hurry and the Israelis want to make sure they destroy the Iranian civilian structure and economy. But the Iranians are not in a hurry. And to give you an example which is not funny but this is what happened to me when I used to cover the Iran Iraq war and I used to visit the Iranian official asking for interviews and I would be a guest at the foreign ministry in the room of the director general waiting to see the foreign minister and he would offer me a a mandarin and then for an hour he would be peeling the mandarin piece by piece. is cleaning all the small pieces around it to the point that made me nervous. That is the Iranian patient. The Iranians are not in a hurry to finish this war. The Iranian want to finish this war according to their terms that they accept. They will bring back Donald Trump to the third beginning before the war and they will put harsh conditions that suit them with all the guarantee. And to do that, they want to make sure that they are conducting this war and they are sewing a carpet that takes a year or two to finish because they are not in a hurry to bomb Israel like they've done on the first day, showing their capability to send 220 missiles in one day. But then they went back to the rhythm to make sure that day and night the Israelis spend it in the shelter and day and night the Israeli interception missiles are exhausted or are engaged because to shoot a bullet with another bullet you need to shoot three to five interception missiles from the Israeli side >> and this is exactly what the Iranian are doing. So we have not seen a sign of weakness or depletion of the Iranian of the Iranian missile but from the American and Israeli medias. But what is falling on Tel Aviv and Hifa and other parts of Israel doesn't really corroborate with what the Americans and the Israelis are saying. >> No, it doesn't. And uh maybe you can uh talk about uh the role of Hezbollah here because I think a lot of people were surprised when Hezbollah entered uh as it did and has shown a ferocity that has uh indeed both on the ground and in their also in their own missile attacks uh has uh I think really shocked Israel. Israeli officials have said they weren't expecting this. And I want to show to your point Elijah about the Israeli air defenses, the Iron Dome, the AR, all of these, they are working overtime against Hezbollah, too. And here is just one example of this. We can see I'll just show the audience. They'll be able to see just how many Israeli interceptors are going up. This is, I believe, uh, in in quote unquote northern Israel. uh th that's a lot of interceptors being fired uh in order to uh uh you know in order to respond to Hezbollah's own uh strikes. So uh you know a lot of people Elijah have been wondering how long can both the United States, Israel and Israel given these are all US assets in the Gulf uh uh can they last uh given that uh you have he and Trump saying that they have unlimited supplies and that unconditional surrender is the only aim that they are now going for when it comes to Iran. >> Do you want me to start with Hezbollah first? Sure. Yeah, definitely. >> Let's see. Let's take what the Israeli Defense Minister Kat said. He said, "We were prepared to start the war on Hezbollah in December 2025, but we waited until the Americans join us in the war against Iran, which indicate that the Israelis were prepared for war." But let's see if what he said fits with the events on the ground. And if he's saying that just to show off or in reality. So before Hezbollah joined in the Israelis told that that they are they called 100 to 110,000 troops reserveist to the border with Lebanon to prepare for a ground attack on the Lebanese territory before the beginning of the war. Now to gather 100 to 110,000 military expert understand that very well that you really need to gather all the troops and call them immediately to join that as the Israelis are very efficient and they can can do that within less than a week. But then what about all the equipments? How about the unit they can they have to uh join? What about the ammunition? What about the logistic support, fuel, uh food, ammunition and all that that needs to follow the troop while they are advancing? What about the air coverage and the allocation of enough munition for that while they are engaged with the war on Iran? Let what about the update of the intelligence information? What about the artillery that need to clear the grounds for the advance of the infantry? I can go on and on and on to tell you that that takes months of preparation. So it is not from one day to another Hezbollah launched six missiles across the borders and 24 hours later the Israelis pushed the forces in which mean the Israelis were prepared and confirm what the Israeli defense minister told us. Now why would engage in this war? Forbah this is a perfect timing and it is existential war and I will explain the two different one. Uh domestically, the Lebanese government issue a directive agreed to arrest any Hezbollah members and to consider Hezbollah military branch as an outlaw which means any member of Hezbollah will be arrested anywhere even in his house and we were told byah that they are around 100,000 men. Now the Shia community in Lebanon felt that they are next on the list and they felt that actually in October November 2024 when the war stopped with an agreement that Israel and Hezbollah will respect the United Nations Security Council resolution 1701. And this is when Hezbollah stopped the war and Israel failed to respect the UN resolution and started the bombing of Lebanon from one side and violated the Lebanese sovereignty 15,000 times killing 500 Lebanese which amount to one per day in the last 500 days. and for Hezbollah to have the Lebanese government consider it as an outlaw and the Israeli preparing for attack and the atmosphere in Lebanon overwhelmingly pro-Israeli and anti-Hzbollah that is the end of Hezbollah. Therefore, to protect its society, it needs to force Israel to impose a ceasefire with the United Nations Security Council resolution 1701 that the American negotiator Barak Thomas Barak said it is null and it is no longer uh valid and the Israelis recognize no borders anymore between Lebanon and Israel and they can move in freely. as they want. That is the US envoy who said that Thomas Barak announcing that Lebanon is a failed state and the Israelis have a free hand for that. The uh Hezbollah who find the Shia in Lebanon unable not able to reconstruct their homes in the south of Lebanon because Israel prevent that. not able to invest money in giving shelters to the Lebanese Shia that found their home destroyed because the Lebanese government prevent Iran from supporting Lebanon and reconstructing it and stopped all the flight between Lebanon and Iran for one year. So they are caught in between the Lebanese army that is preparing to attack Hezbollah but not the Israeli occupation forces and the Israelis who are prepared to attack Hezbollah and they were in the middle if they prove themselves capable of holding their ground protecting the Shia even the with this destruction because the Israelis kind of I don't want to be cynical but render a service to Hezbollah by asking all the Shia to evacuate south of the Lutani River and all the suburbs. So, Hezbollah doesn't have anymore anything to be afraid for and therefore they can freely attack the Israelis without fearing for their people and the society that's protecting them. Andah said the condition. Hezbollah said if Israel returned to the agreement stipulated in October November 2024 respect the Lebanese sovereignty and allow the reconstruction of Lebanon. I stop. I am not related to the war on Iran. So forbah to see the Israeli air force divided between Lebanon and Iran is a luxury because then the Israelis cannot bomb the hell out of Lebanon and particularly the Shia area and then take the Hezbollah took this opportunity to confront Israel and make sure that they will not stop like Iran. It's a survival and existential war unless Israel accept the United Nations Security Council resolution 1701. >> Yeah. Well, uh I think that's that's all uh incredibly important to note, Elijah. And you know I wanted to ask you now given the shape of of where we are now in uh the the war Elijah or at least in this iteration of the war this massive escalation u do you do you find I don't know if you've seen reports of this because uh there are now talks of a possible uh uh escalation by the United States of ground troops. Now Trump is privately saying that these troops this wouldn't be a massive surge. this wouldn't be a general in quote unquote invasion, but rather strategic operation, so to speak. Uh there are friends of this show who have said deployment orders have been given already. And uh I'm just wondering uh given the shape of this war and the costs and consequences thus far, what do you make of of this possible development and what would what might transpire here? Well, Donald Trump is saying that he wants he's contemplating ground invasion. I'm not surprised he said that because he's has no clue about the geography of Iran and what the Kurds can or cannot do. First of all, Iran is 1,640,000 kilometers. Kuristan province including the part of Azaran Iran Aaran is around 70,000 square kilometers and the Kurds Iraq the Iranian Kurds area is around 28,000 kilometers. Therefore pushing the Iraqi Kurds to cross the Iranian borders, join other Kurds separatist in a war to topple the Islamic revolution that is spread on 1,640,000 square kilometers. That is a very poor thinking. Secondly, the Iranians said they would destroy Eril and Sulleman, the two Kurdish Iraqi provinces in Iraq. First, that that will destroy the Kurdish oil resources. Secondly, it will open the appetite of Baghdad to go to Kurdistan, impose his power and that will be the end of the Kurdish kind of federation independence in Kurdistan. Third, this plan will involve a ground force force involvement from the American Mossad, CIA, and Kurdistite, but also the Iranian ground troops that are out of the war so far because it's a missile war. It's a war between um the Iranian missile and drones and the American and the Israeli missiles. One can argue that they've bombed the Iranian barracks. But who said the Iranian tri ground troop that are count several millions including the besiege not one million the army but are also the besiege forces are going to be completely wiped out from the air when the Kurds will ad will advance into uh an Iranian territory. So this plan is really a plan of someone who really his IQ is not higher than the room temperature. Not him, him and all his assistants around him including the war minister because this is absolutely not a feasible plan and will really destroy the Kurds. >> Yeah. Well, uh, you know, Elijah, you know, you mentioned that, uh, this is a missile war, and I'm wondering if you could help the audience understand exactly what we know of, of Iran's capabilities right now, uh, you know, or remaining capabilities because I don't know if you've seen, but Israel, especially Channel 12, Israel, continuously says that Iran's missile launchers are gone, eradicated, that they don't have any more capabilities. But yet daily we see uh the Gulf being hit. We see regional countries being hit. Of course, Israel being hit and now Iran is saying they are going to increase the pressure and increase the amount of strikes in league with US and Israeli escalations. So maybe you can help us understand exactly what we know of because I know Iran is not uh you know publicly sharing a lot of information but what we know of Iran's uh capabilities and what's remaining. Quick answer to that. A very quick answer is maybe there is someone in the sky sending these missiles on Israel because someone is firing these missiles. And if the Israelis are telling us that Iran's capability have been destroyed and Donald Trump is saying Iran's missile program is destroyed, then I really don't know who's firing all these missiles unless perhaps the Americans are firing on Israel all these missiles and claiming that Iran is doing it so they continue bombing Iran. So one looks at the facts but not the wordings of the Americans and the Israelis. If the Israelis are saying to their people because there are two different languages, one for the domestic use and one for international news. The domestic use that is in the shelter all the time is saying well our leaders are saying they've destroyed it but who is firing at us? Someone is doing it. And then for the international community, for those who are not listening to the news, rightly they're not interested. Well, they can repeat this um this narrative and pretend that Iran's missiles have been destroyed and and the program has been destroyed and they have no more capability. Now there are different kinds of launching pads. one in silos under the ground and another one on trucks on trucks is very easy to spot but not on the geography that as as I mentioned before we're talking about 1,640,000 square kilometers. So they need really to spot a missile launcher to go and destroy it. Now they can do that if they have enough coverage of the entire surface geographic surface of Iran and they can do that more vulnerable are the liquid fuel missiles that need between 40 to 70 minutes to be deployed and launched. But Iran is launching on Israel now solid fuel missiles that need five minutes to be launched and they can be launched from silos under the ground. So opening up for a missile to depart from under the ground, it is not going to be protected and it's not going going to be hit. And this is why the Americans and the Israelis put all their power of interception missile system in Israel and in Aman in in Jordan. that they also put in Cyprus and in Greece and they put in other Gulf countries and they tried to put it in Iraq in the desert of Iraq and they were caught by the Iraqi security forces. the French and the Americans putting interception missiles in the desert of Albar very close to Sasa, the border with Saudi Arabia to be able to intercept the Iranian missile coming from that corridor that is the closest distance between Iran and Israel. So everybody is joining the Israelis and the Americans to intercept missiles. And if the Iranian missiles have been destroyed, why the French are sending a frigate as a defensive uh power to intercept the Iranian missiles? Why the British are doing the same? Why the Italians are doing the same? Why the Australian are also involved? So all these countries are involved in a missile that have been completely destroyed doesn't make sense to me and I don't think it makes sense to anyone but what we are seeing in Tel Aviv when missiles are destroying a building this morning only and how the debris are falling on the Israelis which mean an indication that people need to know the interception missile system for the ballistic missiles can intercept the missiles outside the atmospheric pressure. If they are intercepting them above Israel and the debris are falling on Israel, it mean the missiles are fast enough to reach the atmospheric pressure above Israel before they are intercepted by the third missile for example or other layer of missile system that Israel have. Therefore, we understand that these ballistic missiles are hypersonic ballistic missiles where they can reach a 15 mag speed all the way and some of them reach 19 without slowing down in the phase of descending which is impossible for the Israelis to intercept. But not only sometime the Israeli hear the ser and the missile falling simultaneously which mean the interception missile system alarm did not uh know or see the missiles falling on Israel in uh in time enough to warn the inhabitant of Israel to go to their shelter. So we look at sign and signals to come up with a conclusion but we don't look at what the Iranians or the Israelis or the Americans are saying. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely. And I think it's really important uh to note what you just said and I can actually just show some of the results of what you just said because uh we are seeing here in videos like these um this is the result of those that can uh you know here's a >> Yeah, these are the results of those missiles that can uh uh and I'm wondering if you could describe these because everyone's sharing them. I'm not sure here. Here they are. Uh no, not that. Uh let me just stop the screen. Um this missile right here. Everyone's sharing this. These are impossible to intercept cluster missiles. Are these the KBAR, Kaibar? I don't know how to say it. Uh but these are missiles that uh essentially are cluster munitions and they break apart. Uh and essentially one missile event actually serves as I don't know you do the you can do the math up there audience. Uh we can't count from here dozen maybe more. And that shrapnel just hits everywhere. And uh uh of course Israel and the United States you know there have been people who have made comments about these missiles Elijah that they are against international law but at the same time this is war and Israel has essentially made itself into one big military target given its history given how it wages war and given also its colonial status and where it positions its military uh installations and infrastructure and hardware. Well, I would argue differently, not because this is a war, but first Israel dropped 1 million cluster bombs on Lebanon. The number of the bomb come from the how many bombs are in every missile that are spread. They have very little explosives in in them, but enough to cut the leg off a person or a child. Maybe children when they play in the field. This is where they are mostly hit and the large part of those who suffer from cluster missiles are the civilians. Now there are several points you have mentioned. First Iran and Israel did not sign the treaty where it is forbidded to use cluster bomb. So they both have the personal the the the right to use them against one another because they did not agree not to use them and they did not violate the agreement for them. It is not illegal for the rest of the world who signed the agreement. It is illegal and against the law that one two the type of missile is shikan and it has a family of number one 2 three and four. So it goes from 550 kilogram of explosive in the warhead. I'm not talking about the weight of the missile itself. I'm talking about only the explosive. It go from 550 kilogram of explosive to 1,800 kilogram of explosive. And the Kaiba Shikan 4 or Kaibar gate it is a reference to the Islamic battle when Imam Ali opened the door of Kbar against the Jew that he fought against in Islamic um in ancient time of the Islamic conqueror uh period. They this missile can go the head can go between 25 cluster bomb to 80 cluster bomb and these open up and when they open above Israel what is interesting for people to know is the missile reach the space above Israel and this is where the missile open up the warhead and drop all these dozens of cluster bombs and these cluster bomb have around half a kilo to 1 kilogram of explosive depending on the type and which family of Kraan is the missile and they it is impossible to intercept them unless the missile is intercepted in the space not above Israel. Therefore, these are lethal for the Israelis and they cause a large damage in a in a vast area because they spread on a large surface. And that is something that is directed toward the property of the civilians equal to what the the I the Israelis. Not really equal because the Israelis are using uh 2,000 pound of explosive against every target and every day they go between 80 to 200 attacks air attacks on Iran. Therefore, the you can imagine the quantity of bomb falling on Iran plus the B-52 Americans and the B2 American uh jets that are dropping their bombs, tens of bombs on the Iranian and in particularly Thran. So the um the difference between the Iranians and the Americans and the Israelis is not by the quantity of bombs. It's by how long the Iranian can absorb these shocks and how long the Israelis can absorb it. Who can last for longer than the other? That is the key of the war. If the Iranian accept the damage they are suffering from longer than the period said by the Israeli which is which was the case in June 2025 then Iran doesn't need to win. Iran needs not to lose not because we don't look in academia one looks at defeat by raising the white flag or surrendering or being completely destroyed. If one side continue fighting without surrendering, then this side did not lose, was severely damaged but did not lose, will reconstruct his capability and return to stand on its feet. This is what Iran needs. Iran, if Iran doesn't raise the white flag, Iran did not lose the battle. >> Yeah, it's a great point. I mean uh this is a a much different kind of war than let's say Vietnam. But uh you know while uh there were ground troops there there was of course significant American losses but far more Vietnamese losses far more damage of course to Vietnamese infrastructure. Vietnam is unable to really lay a hand on the United States or anything like that but of course hit its military. But at the end of the day, it was uh the US that had to pull out first and had to stop the war uh because the costs uh were just too far great. Um even if Vietnam ended up uh getting hit the most. So Iran finds itself I I agree with you. I think it finds itself in a similar position, just a different kind of war where uh if it can defend itself and stand afterwards, then that is uh maybe that is a kind of victory for Iran. Now, uh, Elijah, I wanted to ask you about now some of the escalations. Of course, I mentioned the hits on Iran's oil infrastructure, but the US and Israel are also going after desalination plants in Iran, um, which has caused, I think, 30 plus uh, areas, villages, localities in Iran to be cut off from their water supply. But this is a this is a dangerous precedent. Um, here's a post that I found interesting where there's a map of all the desalination plants in the Persian Gulf where you see uh uh how uh dependent a lot of these countries in the region that are hosting US assets, US military assets are on these kind of plants and that all of them are within range essentially of uh Iranian um Iranian missile fire and drone fire, which begs the question, where where is this war heading? It seems like these kind of escalations only uh raise the stakes of uh even more catastrophe uh for the region. And will this uh kind of escalation backfire and put pressure on the Gulf States to uh uh to stop their maybe uh uh you know very dependent and subservient position to the United States because uh the damages could get far worse from here for them. Well, as you rightly put out, the um minimum percentage of dependence on daliation in the Gulf countries is 95%, in some countries like Kuwait, it's 100%. So what Israel did is invited Iran to retaliate and reciprocate against the Gulf country. So everybody is suffering and everybody pay the price and Israel remains the strongest country in the Middle East. This is the objective of Benjamin Netanyahu and he said it. He said once I destroy Iran with the Americans then all the Arab country will crawl back to me because they will all want me to support them and they will all want relationship with me. He did not hide his objective. That was his objective and this is what he said. Therefore, for Iran to retaliate against this uh daliation system in the Gulf country, it's a possibility because also Iran want the Arab to turn against the Americans and stop the war and do everything to stop the war. Unfortunately, the Arabs can't very little with the Americans, even if they are the one who provided Donald Trump when he visited the Middle East with $3.5 trillion trillion dollars, not billion, trillion dollars to as an investment in the United States to boost the economy. But for him, Israel come first. Now attacking these uh targets is prohibited by the United Nation and many other organizations is against article 542. It is not allowed to hit civilian target that starve or deprive the civilian population. It is under the Rome status of international community court 8 number eight. uh it is the principle of distinction between civilian target and war target is also under uh article 48 of the additional protocol one. So proparity uh again article 51 every single country in the world avoid targeting civilian at this level. However, I'm not surprised because what Israel did in Gaza considering the Gazan as in not human flattering Gaza punishing the population and the result that international criminal court considered Benjamin Netanyahu as a fugitive and a war criminal along with his former defense minister Yuav Galand is not a surprise for the crimes uh war crimes and crimes crimes against humanity that they have committed. Therefore, they are using the same style with Iran attacking civilian infrastructure where people use drinking water, they attacking hospital, they attacking schools, they attacking ambulances, they attacking police headquarters because police is not considered a military because they are not engaged in a war. So everything that related to the basic what the Iranian need including flour and corn uh industry they targeting and destroying it. That is not a clean war or a fair war. These are war crimes. And because the war is already unlawful and illegal, some countries are engaged in illegal war. They have some respect to the rule of wars. This is why the Geneva Convention said if a if a soldier is arrested during wartime has the soldier has rights. Well, here we see there are no rights for anyone and everything is permitted. >> Yeah. And uh I'd like to get your reaction to um you know I think those are those are really important points um especially given that uh you know Iran given how it's being targeted has every right to inflict uh pain to defend itself uh that is uh within its right and here I want to I want to play this from Fox News Elijah if you can if you can bear and and stomach it um because I believe that there's a heavy heavy push. This war is so unpopular in the United States um and likely across the West uh that uh we even see uh uh Fox News trying to spin developments as a big victory already in an attempt to frame this as maybe a war that should uh uh end a little bit sooner than what is being purported. Uh here is uh the uh list that a Fox News commentator ran down. what's what has happened. Let's list it out. So, we took out the Iranian regime um leader, the the Ayatollah Kamini, and then uh 40 of the top leaders, we degraded their military. Um you can see we've been we've been laying that out all day. Um all morning, we've um because they've decided to attack their neighbors and we've kind of unified them behind us. So, that's kind of worked in our favor to some degree. We've outed fake allies, Spain, England, right? Why should we ever help them again? That was this is a way to reveal reveal that we talked a little bit about the insurance um situation for ships coming across the straits of Hormuz. So there's there's that angle as well which is very interesting. So to me this already looks like victory. So, so Elijah uh help this is the kind of as the kids say these days the kind of slop that is going around western mainstream media US mainstream corporate media uh maybe you can break down uh the the myth from reality here even that last point uh victory scene in what's happening in the straight of hormuz I don't know if uh the global economy and especially American and European pocketbooks would agree with that >> first I would like to say about the leaders that they have killed all the leaders of Iran but someone is running the show someone is firing and someone is taking the decision about firing against what now it's important to understand that ideological state and non-state actors have a horizontal leadership and not a perpendicular leadership and the granola Ali did not leave his house as a source of emulation. He remained in his house that is also his office and cannot as a a reference for tens of millions of people in the Islamic world like a pope for the Christian cannot leave his house and show that he is afraid of the Americans and the Israelis. And an 86 year as he is an 86 year old for him and for her for for him ideology the best level that he can reach to die not his bed killed by his enemy and for him this is a martial. So for the Americans or the Israelis to kill him, it is actually not a big deal for Iran because the constitution article 111 uh stated that if the granatah the the leader of the revolution is dead or removed, they have to appoint another one and there is a council the assembly expert of 88 person who meet to select the new one and to approve the selection of the new one which they have done today and they finish the selection of the new one. So killing the leader we the people who don't follow Iran in December 2025 the leader of the revolution appointed already all the vices of all the leadership that are in Iran and in fact the head of the IRGC today brigadier general Ahmed Vahidi is the one who was appointed as a vice head of the IRGC in December and he's the one leading the battle today. So killing the leaders did not [ __ ] Iran. It did in June 2025 when Iran retaliated after 18 hours. It has created a big surprise and a huge confusion because Donald Trump started the war with Benjamin Net during a negotiation. Now he did exactly the same this time when they said they would meet on Monday in Vienna and he started the war on Saturday. But Iran was differently prepared. And in the first hour of the assassination of several leaders, Iran responded in strength against Tel Aviv and against all the US bases in the Middle East, which mean the plans were already on the table, ready to be executed, and they executed them. Now if you look at that angle it means Iran is prepared for war to continue the war and it is not ready to back down. The decision makers in Iran today are the IRGC, the um the military. If there is something new coming up diplomatically that fit with the plan already laid out by the leader of the revolution that the war doesn't stop unless we reach our objective to lift the sanction to have the right to enrich uranium and for those attacker to pay the comp to compensate or the damage of the war and also for Iran to recover tens of billions of dollars frozen in different banks. The war is not going to stop. We don't see any indication of what was uh in the program of Fox News that is compatible with the reality on the ground that the leaders have been killed, that the Iranians are ready to surrender, that the Americans have the upper hand and the total control. So they have the total control of the sky but they can't stop the uh missile coming and what they say about the um Iran bringing all the gulf together with the Americans on their side and I think this is a very high either disinformation or misinformation and the presenters did not know what they are talking about. First, the Gulf country are receiving only mainly drones and that are incapable of defending themselves. Secondly, they've been threatened by the Ansarah and by the Iranian that their infrastructure will be destroyed if they come in into the war and they are extremely fragile in this war. They cannot defend themselves. Third, Iran took into consideration the possibility of attacking the Gulf countries if they participate in the war and the Gulf country will not hesitate a second to bomb the hell out of Iran if Iran is defeated. Another point is Ansarah in Yemen said they will close the um the Babel Mandib if the Arab will join the war and they will bond the Arabs. And the last point is the straight of hormers. Iran did not close the strait of horm. This trait is still available but any ship crossing that straight needs to respond to the Iranian. And the Iranian invited the Americans military and naval force to cross the state of Hormas so that they can deal with them and revenge the frigate that the Americans bombed with their submarine when they were during a military joint parade with India where they are not allowed to be armed, returning unarmed in international water and were sank by the Americans. where they killed 84 sailor men, 60 are missing and 23 remain alive and were recovered by the Sri Lankan. So going into the straight of hormones today if the tanker cost 100 million and used to pay 250,000 as a insurance today this same tanker is paying 12 million. Now all this repercussion is on us on the population because this is raising the price of oil and gas and everything related to transport and already the price of gas here in Europe has increased by 50%. So we are paying the price for the war that the Americans started for the glory of one person in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, to prevent him from going to prison. Yeah. Yeah. And uh those prices are going uh higher and higher. Elijah, it topped $90 yesterday. Price of oil uh 14% in the United States, but I think it's even bumped up higher. It's going higher by the day uh given the crisis that uh the United States in Israel imposed on the region by uh launching this war. Elijah, is there any final point you want to make about uh where this war is as we uh head out of here as we begin to conclude? Um given there's just there's so many things happening and maybe I did miss something. >> We are dealing with a person Benjamin Netanyahu who is willing to destroy Iran and not to free the people of Iran. He's freeing them from all their natural asset destroying everything. We are dealing with another person who is quite unpopular because he was voted for only because he said that he is not going to go to war and criticized Barack Obama for being engaged and preparing a war with Iran. I like what Van Holland, the senator, said that for 40 years, Benjamin Netanyahu did not find an stupid president to drag him into a war and Donald Trump found one. Benjamin Netanyahu found one with Donald Trump. That is a US senator. Now, the Americans are against this war. Many of them have very little knowledge of what's happening and then really don't care. Only a small amount of people are engaged are on social media. They come to podcast. They want to know something. They want to express their opinion. Good or bad is good because at least they educate themsel and they can have uh their own opinion and disagree. But what's happening today is a war that the United States has nothing to do with it. that is created a level of hate in the world against the United States because they are the one who choose their leader. Now the leader was not honest when he said he's not going to go to war but they have still the power at the Americans university students who went and manifested outside their university because of the genocide in Gaza. They can do the same with a person who has who is accused according to the file as a pedophile and who is really dragging the United States and the entire Middle East and the world economy into tatters. This is something that the American people needs to be responsible for and feel sorry for what's happening in Iran because they are the one who elected the president who has no knowledge of politics or no understanding of geopolitical strategy. Well, without further ado, everybody, I want to make sure you know that Elijah Manet's website is in the video description where you can check out all of his work, his updates, his articles, all that he is doing um on this war and of course uh on geopolitics and the rest of West Asia. Uh be sure to hit the like button before you go and in the video description too are all the places where you can support this work. You can also I just want to make sure I thank all the super chats, all uh those who became members, and of course all the moderators who did a great job in the chat today. Without further ado, everybody, I'll be back tomorrow, Scott Ritter, 12 pm noon Eastern. Uh what is that? March 9th. Uh uh we will be back for the daily updates. Okay, everyone. Take care. Have a good rest of your Sunday. Bye-bye.
Video description
The US and Israel have opened up a new front in the war that has seen an even more furious retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. The future of the war is moving rapidly toward even further escalation, and the crises keep piling up for the aggressors. War correspondent Elijah Magnier joins the show to break it all down. Follow Elijah: https://ejmagnier.com/ FOLLOW ME ON RUMBLE: https://rumble.com/c/DannyHaiphong FOLLOW ME ON TELEGRAM: https://t.me/dannyhaiphong SUPPORT THE CHANNEL ON PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/dannyhaiphong Support the channel in other ways: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dannyhaiphong Substack: chroniclesofhaiphong.substack.com Cashapp: $Dhaiphong Venmo: @dannyH2020 Paypal: https://paypal.me/spiritofho Follow me on Telegram: https://t.me/dannyhaiphong #iran #trump #israel