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Analysis Summary
Single-cause framing
Attributing a complex outcome to a single cause, ignoring the web of contributing factors. A clean explanation is more satisfying and easier to act on than a complicated one. Especially effective when the proposed cause is something you already dislike.
Fallacy of the single cause; Kahneman's WYSIATI principle
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- This video provides a concise and well-paced summary of the specific technical and logistical errors (SAP systems, inventory data) that led to Target Canada's demise.
Be Aware
Cautionary elements
- The use of 'revelation framing' where complex economic failures are reduced to a single psychological 'groupthink' issue to make the host's advice appear as a universal cure.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
Knowing about these techniques makes them visible, not powerless. The ones that work best on you are the ones that match beliefs you already hold.
This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
Transcript
American retail giant Target in 2011 decided they wanted to go dominate the Canadian market as well. So in a bold move, they invested $1.8 billion to take over the closing stores of a struggling chain up there called Zellers. It seemed like an easy win. Canada is a market very similar to the United States and right next door. But fast forward two years later, the whole experiment ended bankruptcy and Target ran back to the United States a few billion dollars lighter in their wallet and kind of embarrassed. How did such a strong retailer screw this up so badly? Well, I'll tell you the story of the whole thing in this video. Target CEO Greg Stein's plan for this whole roll out into Canada was to reopen these stores by 2013. 123 of them in fact, under the Target banner. This was an unprecedented blitz for a retailer. uh taking on Walmart Canada who'd been there for over 20 years already. But this is not how retail rollouts and growth typically work. Usually they're incremental, opening up region by region and store by store. But these guys wanted to skip all those decades and go straight to the finish line. But Target had reason to be confident. Customers who would travel across the border from Canada to shop love Target. And they had information that even folks inside of the executive ranks at Walmart Canada were scared of Target coming in. Their first move was to shutter all the Zeller stores they were acquiring and give them a chance to rebrand them as Target stores and reset them a new. But that had an interesting side effect which was all those customers suddenly who were shopping at Zellers had to go find other places to shop in the meantime. And a lot of them went to Walmart and other places. And here's the thing about humans and humans are our customers, right? It's tough to get them to change their behavior once they change it. But they will change it if you force them. And that's exactly what Target did. got people to go look at other stores when they'd been potentially going to sellers for years. >> The first of more than 100 Target stores opened in Canada. The American discount giant knowing known for its cheap and chic merchandise has hired 5,000 employees in Canada. It expects to do big business here and there were lineups today to get in. >> The first Target stores opened in Canada in March 2013. The CEO of Target Canada, Tony Fiser, well, he greeted the media and the long lines of customers with a big smile. And early foot traffic actually exceeded expectations. It turns out they've been right. People wanted Target in Canada. But shoppers who entered the store discovered kind of a crazy experience. Unlike in a US Target with stock shelves and everything well organized and a well old machine, they came into these Target Canada stores and it was basically bare shelves and kind of wrong signs. It was just a mess. To make matters worse, the Reuters news chain went in and looked at a basket of typical goods purchased at Target Canada and discovered that the prices on average were 15% more. In other words, a typical shopper at Target Canada was going to spend $8 more for the same basket of goods that would just be slightly cheaper across the border for their American friends. So, the first impression here was that Target Canada wasn't offering the cheap chic that you saw in Target United States at the time. And many customers just walked right back out the door and went down the street to Walmart where they knew they could get what they wanted at a price they wanted. In a rush to launch, Target haded installed a completely new operating system to try to go from 0 to 100 on a business that well had been nothing before. And it was all based on a big ERP system called SAP made by the German company SAP. So, while the shelves at the stores were bare and they were having a hard time getting what they wanted, by fall 2013, the actual distribution centers, 4 million square feet of them run by Target, were having overflowing merchandise and trailers having parked in adjacent spaces just to handle all the stuff they weren't sending out to the stores. It turned out that Target hadn't been ready to open these stores at all. In fact, before the grand opening in February 2013, Target's management had been having daily go or no-go meetings to try to figure out if they were ready to launch these stores or not. Employees had reported these problems with inventory, reported these problems with supply, with signage, all this kind of stuff, and even known about other problems like the checkout registers not even working correctly, many things not ringing up when they tried to sell them. To put this in perspective, at the time of launch for Target Canada, only 30% of the data that they had in their registers and in their IT system was accurate. To put that in perspective, in the United States, the typical was closer to 99%. At these daily huddles, the employees actually knew about all these problems. But there was something weird going on. And that weird thing was called group think. And in subsequent interviews with the participants in these meetings, one participant later admitted that nobody wanted to be the person to speak up and say, "Hey, we're making a huge mistake here rushing these stores to open." And management, well, they chose to ignore a lot of what they were hearing. They decided to open the stores on time, take care of their bosses, and make them happy. and hopefully they would fix the problems on the fly. Group think is a common problem amongst groups of humans, right? We are so wired to work with each other in a social group. That's our strength as a species that often times we will go along with things even if we individually or even the consensus of us knows we're making a mistake. And Target at this time had a culture where people didn't feel empowered to speak up and they were well running headlong into a disaster. All right, so before I tell you how this all ends up, let me give you a plug for this channel. would love to have you as a subscriber. And if you're interested, I've taken the top 10 lessons from all these videos and put them into one easy document that you can download. There's usually a link in the first comment below. Thanks for being here. A lot of these employees were right about what was going to happen if they rush these stores out too quickly, which was in today's highly competitive market of retail, you only get one chance to make a first impression. If people come in and decide you're not worth their time or effort, they ain't coming back for a second chance. And worse, they go around and tell your friends they suck and you're overpriced. Huh, that's what happened in Canada. Then things got even worse for Target. In late 2013, the company as a whole got hit by a massive data breach. You probably remember this in the news. 40 million debit cards were stolen and 70 million credit cards. It was a big deal. 40 million Target customers may have had their financial information stolen. The nationwide security breach affects anyone who used a credit or debit card at a Target in the last 3 weeks. And so in fall of 2013 and into the winter, Target Canada looked up and had huge piles of inventory and no customers to buy them. They had to go and slash prices to try to move some of this stuff. And so in the first full year of operations, Target Canada of 2013, lost $941 million, nearly a billion dollars. I remember Greg Steinhoff, the uh CEO of Target who' pushed this growth into Canada. Well, he was fired in May 2014. And one of the contributing reasons was this performance in Canada. But don't worry about Greg. He took home a $61 million exit package. So he's doing fine. So the good news is like corporate America, there's always another executive to hire. So Target hired a new representative to go in and run Target Canada, a man named Mark Chandelle. And Mark went in and his worst fears were confirmed. Despite inventory stock levels and all the IT stuff having finally been fixed, albeit too late. Suddenly, he saw shelves full, but no customers inside of Target Canada. Things got so bad that by June 2014, Target Canada produced, recorded, and released a personal apology video on YouTube to all of the uh Canadian shoppers, asking them to please come back. >> And they posted a video on social media apologizing to Canadians. Take a look. The biggest [music] challenges I think we face have been with our systems and how that's affected our ability to get inventory into our [music] stores. We're just making sure that we're taking that feedback each and every day to try to resolve it and we're getting [music] new systems to try to make sure that it's working better. >> Maybe we didn't put our best foot forward when we entered into Canada. We had some disappointments when we opened. Uh certainly [music] we think we've disappointed our guests, but here at headquarters and at our store teams, [music] we're working really hard to give everybody that unique Target experience. [music] >> I have a tweet in front of me right now that that I'll read. Uh if you want a second chance with Canadian customers, [music] live up to the motto. You can't say expect more. Our guests are absolutely right. You know, we have set very high expectations. Uh they've had great experiences at US stores. We want to bring that same experience here. >> But by then, the damage was not recoverable. The Canadians had written off Target Canada as even an option and had gone back to their old favorites at Costco, Canadian Tire, and Walmart. In 2015, Target basically stunned the world by throwing in the towel what seemed like relatively quickly. They would close the remaining 133 stores and lay off nearly 20,000 employees. >> Target, the US retailer, has just announced it is shutting down, discontinuing its Canadian operations. >> Target, by this point, had sunk $5.4 billion into their Canadian experiment and got basically a big slap in the face and a level of embarrassment to show for it. On April 12th, 2015, the very last of the Target stores closed for good. And uh the Target Canada experiment was done. Ironically, on the day that Target Canada announced all this stuff, uh their stock for Target Corporation rose 2%, showing just how much investors agreed that the Target for into Canada had been a huge disaster, poorly executed. And remember how Target had taken over all those Zeller stores and rebranded them as Target? Well, ironically, the brand Zellers is making a comeback in Canada now, too, and doing well much better than Target did. As I think about the takeaway from this video, I think about stories I've heard about the Israeli army. And they had gotten so tired of having situations where an individual inside of the army, a very junior person, had seen things going wrong and been afraid to speak up that they created a culture where everybody was welcome to contribute their opinion no matter how lowly. So you would see things like individuals like bulk privates questioning some general's orders. And the reality is that's maybe extreme for western business culture, but it is something that we need to make sure in our culture we don't have people scared to speak up. And the way that gets fixed is how you respond to criticism as a leader. If somebody asks you a probing question, you need to value it, welcome it and appreciate it and then give people the best answer you can. And that's how you create a culture that will avoid what happened here at Target where people knew they were screwing stuff up and didn't do anything about it. All right, let me know what you think about this Target Canada adventure. Anything I missed or you disagree with, let me know in the comments below. Uh, I try to read them all.
Video description
Get the 2-minute cheat sheet for this video → https://girdley.com/youtube What happened to Target Canada? In this business documentary, we break down the rise and fall of Target Canada — one of the most expensive retail expansion failures in modern history. 👇 SUBSCRIBE for more business breakdowns https://www.youtube.com/@Michael-Girdley?sub_confirmation=1 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ► Get my weekly letter to business owners: essential insights to run, grow, and stay ahead in your business → https://links.girdley.com/newsletter-yt ► For sponsorships or inquiries please reach out to: Contact@girdley.com ► Do you have a hat I should wear in a video? Send it to us: Contact@girdley.com ► Free events on all things small business: https://links.girdley.com/lectures-yt ► Deep dives on businesses for sale: https://www.youtube.com/@AcquisitionsAnonymousPodcast ► Follow me on Twitter/X: https://x.com/girdley ------------------------------------------------------------------ In 2011, Target made a bold move to expand internationally by entering the Canadian market. The company invested $1.8 billion to acquire former Zellers locations and rapidly launched more than 100 stores across the country. Executives believed Canada would be an easy win: a familiar consumer market right next door to the United States. Instead, the launch quickly turned into chaos. Customers walked into brand-new Target Canada stores expecting the same “cheap chic” experience they loved in the U.S., but instead found empty shelves, broken pricing systems, and higher prices than American locations. Behind the scenes, massive supply chain failures, inaccurate inventory data, and a rushed rollout built on a new SAP system created one of the most infamous retail operational breakdowns ever. Despite huge foot traffic at launch, shoppers quickly abandoned the stores and returned to competitors like Walmart, Costco, and Canadian Tire. In its first year alone, Target Canada lost nearly $1 billion. After sinking more than $5.4 billion into the venture, Target shut down all 133 Canadian stores in 2015 and laid off nearly 20,000 employees. This Target Canada documentary explores the strategic mistakes, technology failures, leadership decisions, and cultural issues — including groupthink inside the company — that turned a highly anticipated expansion into a historic business failure. If you’re interested in retail strategy, international expansion, supply chain breakdowns, and corporate decision-making, this business breakdown explains exactly how one of the world’s strongest retailers misread a market and paid billions for the lesson.