Oil Soars Above $100 as Iran Signals No Letup in War | Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. >> Gner Montavali joined us. The title is Bloomberg News Middle East reporter, but there is no one I know with an encyclopedic understanding of her Iran uh as Golar Montali. We could speak for an hour this morning. We have precious minutes. Golar, thank you so much for uh joining us. The distance from Thran south to Istan. Describe the state that you perceive of Iran down a road to that UNESCO heritage site south of Tehran. Um that's such a um in kind of incredible, painful, urgent question. Um and thank you for your introduction. Um I I wish I could be there is is the straightforward answer to be able to tell you exactly. Um I I you know I think one of the most frustrating um aspects of obviously the job of covering Iran is just the lack of access. um when you're there it's difficult to all you know move around when you're not there obviously we have to deal with things like internet shutdowns at a time of war which makes it incredibly difficult but from the footage that I have seen online from people that I've been in touch with whether they're friends or family or contacts um the bombardment has been from what I can understand pretty relentless around Tehran at least around the capital particularly over over the past two to three days and during that time obvious obviously we saw the multiple hits >> on the oil depots in the different corners surrounding the center of Tehran and if you go further south as you mentioned um to Esvahhan a city I know intimately well we've also seen bomb strikes just outside one of the country's biggest UNESCO world heritage sites it's a 600year-old palace with two um extremely um distinguished um mosques. So, it's a >> it's it's hard to watch and um yeah, we just have to see what what happens. >> Gunnar, I'm going to editorialize that people like me are doing sophomoric coverage of this. You're the adult in the room. describe the administration and President Trump's simplicity and the press conferences of the Secretary of Defense versus a structure that includes the IRGC, the Artesh Regular Army, the Supreme National Security Council, the General Staff of the Armed Forces, and then within the theocracy, the judiciary and the guardian council. Do we take too simplistic the complexities that will support the people of Iran? >> I think so. I think on on the one hand, it's interesting you mention you talk about that kind of sort of the two sides there, this sort of binary situation we have. And in some ways, if you look at it very simply, these are very two hardline factions in different countries fighting each other. So in some ways it feels like a kind of clash of the titans if you like these very kind of hardline kind of ultra um nationalist or in the on the Iranian side it's more of a ultraislamist um movement clashing now after almost 50 years of animosity and hostility. But I think there is possibly this idea that um it's easy for the people of Iran to kind of just get some help and then themselves be able to just push over the regime as if it's the last domino that needs to fall. And I think that's I think that's a very simple analysis and understanding if indeed that's the case. the for the past almost half centur half a century the Islamic Republic has spent a huge amount of resources and time entrenching itself very deeply and creating what was very a very strong nation state and it's almost the kind of opposite situation you had in Afghanistan and to an extent in Iraq where the state institutions were generally quite weak and um there were smaller countries much much smaller economies compared to Iran's this is a very different situ situation. The hardliners who are in charge are now have actually consolidated their power even further since killing with the appointment of harmony's son are holding on for as long as they can and they're going to hold on tightly to power because they have a huge amount to lose in this Tom. >> Right. And that's exactly where I wanted to go Gonar with this conversation because Iran has now named the son of the late Ayatollah as its new supreme leader. President Trump has called him uh a lightweight. I wonder if we get the same regime but now with a much younger man. He's 56 years old. What What might leadership look like under him? >> I think that's I think you're I think you're right. I think that's quite accurate. It's going to be more of the same if not even possibly more hardline. Um there are things that we don't know about Mojab. For instance, we have no idea what his position is on Iran's nuclear program. Is he going to renew the fatwa, that religious Islamic edict that his father repeatedly issued against um the development of nuclear weapons in Iran? Or is he going to abandon that? We don't know. Is he interested in going into a North Korea style situation? has maybe this war um given him a message as a a sort of justification for actually going ahead and trying to um develop a nuclear weapon because it's such a it's pro proven to be such a strong deterrent in the case of nuc of of >> um North Korea. So um there are lots of questions to be answered but definitely a more a more hardline >> um regime. >> Go quickly here we have to get to markets folks with uh the VIX out at 31.80 80 Kim Dawson on deck. Stay with us folks. Golar across the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Gulf, whatever you want to call it. What is the relation of the tribes of the Arab people with Persia right now? What is the relationship of of Zed, Maktum, and then those in Riad? >> It's I think it's a deeply troubled relationship to say the least. I think they're very worried. I think a huge amount of effort had been made in the p past five or six years >> to um repair ties to build bridges rebuild bridges and those relationships and I think all of that has now obviously been ex you know it's it's dashed Iran is attacking these countries because of the US and Israeli um >> air strikes so um unfortunately I think a lot of that work is um is now um in pieces >> governor we have to dash thank you so much for your time and our thoughts from team surveillance to you and all of your family in Iran as well. Driving all of our Middle East coverage, Golar, Montavali, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube. >> Cameron Dawson joins us now, chief investment officer at Newage Wealth. I just want you to talk for starters about the gut feeling. Should I go to cash? >> Yeah. Well, certainly these kinds of events are extraordinarily jarring and the question of should I go to cash really depends on time horizon. Even though we could certainly see a further hit to valuations, we think that earnings estimates are too high, which certainly something we can we can discuss further. There's a certain amount of volatility that we have to see as a feature of equity markets and something that maybe we've been lulled in a little bit of complacency because we've been in these low volatility up into the right kinds of markets. So, it can be very jarring, but not necessarily something that should knock people off their long-term strategic allocations. >> So, the old adage is you buy on the dip. This is more than a dip, but when do you know it's right to get back in? >> Well, I think it's interesting is that it hasn't been much of a dip up until this point. As of the close on Friday, we were only down 3 and a half%. And what's fascinating is let's say we test the 200 day moving average. That's only 6% off of all-time highs. And that's a function of the fact that markets have been effectively sideways for the last five months. So, when we think about buying on the dip, we measure a lot of things that we we run what's called a flush deck. Um, after the end of trading on on days like today, we measure things like percentage of names above their 50-day, percentage of names at new 20-day lows. We'll look at RSIs. We'll look at a whole slew of technical measures, look at put call ratios, the VIX, all to get a sense of where is fear spiking in markets. And usually when fear spikes that's often times an opportunity to have the bravery to step in and to allocate even if it's not the ultimate low you know forward returns will improve. >> What about where is the fear then? I mean is the because I'm wondering if the fear is widespread and panicky feeling or is it more in sort of the energy sectors? >> Well it we haven't seen fear spike yet. maybe this morning given the fact that we're seeing the VIX spike higher. But if you look at broad measures of fear, you're really not seeing it across markets. You still have markets trading at 20 times forward. You're still having earnings estimates that are at 14% growth for 26 and 2027. So there's still a fairly high bar for things to go very right for this market. So we'll continue to monitor things like indiscriminate selling. What you want to see in that back up the truck moment is effectively people throwing the baby out with the bathwater. But this process really probably is just getting started. Meaning the fact that we haven't seen any estimate cuts whatsoever to EPS, you still have GDP growth that's expected at 2.5%. And if oil remains elevated, doesn't have to stay at $100 a barrel, but still somewhat elevated, >> I don't think that we'll be growing GDP at 2 and a.5%. >> Now, something tells me we we might not. So, but of course the backdrop to all of this is private credit markets. >> Yeah. >> And and how much of that is a canary in the coal mine for for investors who now seem very focused on what's at hand, right, which is what's happening in Iran. >> So, when we think about private credit, we have to to separate and they're they're intertwined, but there are two very distinct risks with private credit. headline risk which deals with liquidity and demand for outlaws outflows and then you have the risk of the actual underlying portfolios and up to this point it's really been about concerns about headline risk that have hit private credit. This is morphing now into concern about underlying portfolios because remember these are loans made to more levered companies that are typically so levered that they can't get access to to bank financing in other places and you're going into it with spreads arguably having been very tight. So, we think that this is morphing a little bit more into a broader a true risk off versus just the headline risk. >> Um, you know, Cameron, I I sit here and I look at the basic public like I'm looking at John Tucker. John Tucker had a 2011k. We had the opening of the 401k envelope. It was painful. And Tucker was brave. He participated in the market. He's killing it. He's got a 501k. We're expecting him to announce this. John, are you announcing your retirement? Is it this month or next month? >> Leave you. No chance. Never. Okay. That's the way retail thinks. I mean, Tucker, it personifies retail. >> Duh. VIX 32.04. Load the boat. Discuss. >> Yeah. Look, fear as an individual investor can be a very jarring and paralyzing kind of emotion because when your own fear spikes, that typically is a sign that you're going to make a bad decision. But measuring fear in aggregate, what we argue is very illuminating. So the VIX spiking suggests that fear is starting to percolate higher. It's why we also look at things like put call ratio. Are people willing to pay whatever it takes for downside? >> What are you going to see this morning? I mean, retail's not walking away from this market. >> No, I look look at the Citadel data from January and February. We saw record inflows into US equities. So retail has been shrugging off a lot of risk and they're going into this with record high allocations which just suggests that maybe there's some complacency in that retail positioning. >> Alex, let's get one more in here with K. >> If if this is not a long drawn out situation with Iran >> if >> if um does this market bounce back? Does oil bounce back? Is it does it spring back quickly or has so much damage been done that it's going to take some time? I I I think that oil can move off of its highs if we see some deescalation, but it's very unlikely that we return to the pre-conlict lows simply because there has been a lot of infrastructure kind of of damage and you're going to have more of a geopolitical risk premium that that's get kept in oil markets. >> We'll talk about the oil chart I've got today uh the folks, but it's been very what we call stochastic, which is like pointy tops like we go up and we turn right around and come back down. >> Yeah. I that's the way it is. And everybody's been banking on that being how this is going to play out. And I think it very much remains to be seen if we can count on that kind of of episodic upside vol. >> So our headline to your podcast is Cameron Dawson says, "Load the boat." >> Not yet. Don't put words in her mouth. >> Cameron Dawson, thank you so much. With New Edge uh Wealth Management, really, really appreciate it. >> Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. >> Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. >> Leslie Palty Guzman in with Energy Vista. Just opening question. What are you studying within your encyclopedic knowledge? >> Right now with the conflict, we're busy. I'm looking at the potential disruption from Qatar which is one of the largest LNG exporter and any disruption at Raslan. >> Frame it out cutter where we have our Bloomberg economic forum. Frame it out. Iran's on the other side and it's only like a 100 miles to Doha, right? >> So explain the tension of a war with LG tankers and Qatar. >> Yes. So for years Iran and Qatar have developed a cordial relationship, strategic relationship based on pragmatism because they share a large field, the world's largest gas field and in order to produce this field they need to have coordination joint management. So there is an intent uh confidential agreement between Iran and Qatar to develop this field. Now that we have this conflict ongoing, not only it raised new uncertainties for the expansion of Qatar LNG which is ongoing and the world is expecting it with anticipation to get cooler prices in two years from now. And at the same time, we have this uncertainty because nobody knows what comes next in Iran and whether the new future Iranian government will honor this arrangement that govern the joint field. >> I want to ask a question I haven't really heard a lot of people ask and that is are the oil markets overreacting? And I ask that because now oil is a much smaller part of GDP than it was a few decades ago when we had the energy crisis of the 1970s. And also the US is the world's largest oil producer. So why why are we seeing the reaction? Or maybe we should be seeing a more aggressive reaction. But I I'm I'm asking you the expert. >> So over the last summer when we already had the 12-day war, we had a spike in prices and then prices revert back rapidly. The duration of the conflict will really impact how long we'll see higher prices on oil. There are mitigation strategies that are going to be developed fast. Even the US government right now announced a shipping >> um like reinsurance for maritime because right now the problem is the straight of hormones for oil. That's the biggest problem as well as some heating of infrastructure, strikes on infrastructure, oil infrastructure. But the transit of the straight of Hormus is a big you know handicap right now for trade and if between escorts plus um the you know insurance because the war premiums are to the roof and nobody can travel. Right. >> What about pipelines? I mean I mean the answer is I know that in Qatar there's the Dolphin pipeline which is you know the basic pipeline but there's all sorts of pipelines that haven't been built. Is this war for whatever reason the catalyst for that area to grow up and put in a pipeline infrastructure? That's such a good question because for years there has been discussion potentially of Qatar building a a pipeline gas pipeline via Syria and heading towards Europe basically right >> to the Medit like from via the mid. >> So is this the catalyst for that? I don't see >> it could potentially be a big trigger. Uh however you know as you know it's an unstable region. We'll need a lot of stars aligning and also there is increasingly more guys in the Mediterranean that would be competing with these guys. Lesie Paul Guzman on this key question. Is the United States Navy going to provide export service uh escort service through the Gulf of >> That's what President Trump's been saying. >> Yes. I think we're increasingly and not just potentially from the US, but I think additional power see it as an opportunity to reopen the seaw routts that have been hijacked by either the Houthi in Yemen. >> Okay. But wouldn't our boats be sitting targets, sitting ducks? So it all depends on what's left in terms of weaponies from Iran and it's hard to go but you know drones, missiles. We saw potentially mines but I think the US military plus the Israeli plus you know France is sending an aircraft carrier. We heard some Greek also navy going. >> Yeah. Didn't they shut their uh some some a few boats that are taking on this risk coming from Greece I guess are saying they're shutting off what however that people could find out where they are. I guess their radar they're shutting that off and sort of in essence going through the straight blind >> and this is where you know dismantling this kind of rogue state axis right >> because they get intelligence and weapon sharing from China from Russia >> and those are actors that are um you know malevolent uh and and are impeding the global trade >> right I got one time for one more question I freshened up my chart of oil in $226 6. We've had other occurrences of $120 $130 per barrel in $226. Can you see a further spike up from 105? >> So to come back to Alex's question earlier, I think that you know the fact that the US now is one of the largest producers producers. We have increasingly non OPEC supply that's a buffer >> and that's that's also you know why the timing of the strike you know maybe few years ago it would have been impossible to do that. I think there is a buffer but again the duration of the war will be critical. >> We got to run. Thank can you come in again like every day for the next three weeks. >> Happy to be back and thanks you. Thank you for having me. >> Leslie Palty Guzman, thank you so much and look for her writing at Energy Vista. Can't say enough about uh her work. Energy Vista's Lesie Py uh Guzman. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. >> Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. >> Victoria Fernandez joins us, chief market strategist, Crossmart Global Investments. So, down in the energy uh land, Victoria, somebody's going to call up today and say, "Go to cash." How do you respond to a CrossMart client afraid? >> Yeah, luckily we haven't gotten those calls yet, Tom, but we don't really want to see our clients go to cash at this point in time. And really because it's this rotation that we're seeing in the market that we think tells us there's still strength ahead when you're looking out on a 6 12 month investment horizon. We're not changing what we're doing for our clients right now. We're staying invested in those companies that we like. You know, we always talk about the strong balance sheets, the good cash flows. These are the companies that we've been invested in. It's where we want to stay invested. Now, obviously, things can change if the duration of this war goes for an extended period of time. If the global economic outlook completely changes significantly, well, then it's time to make a change. But for right now, we we don't want to make a change. We don't want to chase some of the areas that have done well, but we want to look at some of the areas that are in uptrends. Look at industrials, look at materials, look at healthcare. These are areas we want to put money to work for our clients. >> So, the Fed's Edeni, uh, Victoria now is saying the probability of a market meltdown to is at 35% for the rest of the year. He slashed the odds of a melt up to 5%. What are your thoughts on those numbers? Yeah, it's interesting. We actually said we thought this year, Alexis, is what we call a high-risk bull market. So, the potential for the equity market to continue to do well is really based on the fact of earnings expectations still being double digit, capex growth that we're seeing, not just in tech, but everywhere. And the productivity growth and right now, those are elements that we continue to see supporting this market. It doesn't mean it can't change and if it does then we'll change what we want to do in our portfolios. But if we can see productivity stay I mean over the last 3 months it's what about 4% on productivity. If capex continues to do well this uh business the CEO confidence survey that came out last week shows that CEOs are still willing to put the capex to work and earnings are still doing their job right now. Yes, we expect them to come down a little bit but still be pretty solid. So if we have those elements in place, I think the market can withstand some of the issues that we're seeing, whether it's geopolitical, whether it's inflation, whether it's labor market. Not saying it's going to be a gang busters market, but I think we can withstand it. >> But a lot's also going to hinge on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. We've got a meeting next week. So much for the Fed to to parse through. One of the only or one of the few places I guess Americans were getting relief was at the gas pump. Now that's not happening. So, are we now looking at the Fed's next move being a hike? And if so, when? >> Yeah, I would say that the Fed's next move is just going to be doing nothing. Um, they're going to hold the course for a while. I would not expect to see them make a move until at least the middle of the year. So, I think this meeting is on hold. Your first meeting of the summer is probably on hold. We're looking at, you know, late summer, maybe fall before we see a move. And depending on how long the issues go on in the Middle East, that's going to tell us whether we're looking at a hike or whether we're looking at a cut. We would probably see hikes out of Europe or somewhere in the rest of the world prior to seeing them in the US. And they're closer to that than we are at this point in time, but I can't say for sure the next move will be a hike. I think we're going to be on hold for a while. >> Victoria, before we go, you're you're encyclopedic about you. I make jokes about it, folks. She went up to College Station and got parchment and that and escaped back down to Houston as well. How does Houston as a community respond to a $100 a barrel oil? >> Yeah. Well, it's going to be similar to a lot of places in terms of consumers and looking at the gas pumps. I mean, I filled up my gas pump yesterday, too. You guys were talking about this um yesterday. Filled up my car with gas before prices go higher. But obviously, energy is a huge component of our economy. Um, so there's a lot of talk around what that means. What we're not seeing right now is the energy companies making huge shifts in what their plans are going forward. I think they're looking at it as well as maybe temporary. So, we'll see what happens. >> Well, we'll have to see on that, but the Porsche is pretty gas efficient. Victoria Fernandez, thank you so much. Chief Market Strategist, CrossMart Global Investments as well. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeart Radio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube, and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

The latest in finance, economics and investment. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF (http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Alexis ChristoforousMonday, March 9th, 2026 Featuring: 1) Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg News Middle East Reporter, on Iran naming Mojtaba Khamenei, the hardline son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as its new supreme leader. 2) Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, on the market reaction to the prospect of prolonged war in the Middle East. 3) Leslie Palti-Guzman, Founder at Energy Vista, examines geopolitical risks to oil and gas production. 4) Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, talks headline driven volatility from the global oil shock. See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information. Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo and Michael Barr have the economy and the markets "under surveillance" as they cover the latest in finance, economics and investment, and talk with the leading voices shaping the conversation around world markets. Watch Surveillance TV LIVE each mornings: http://bit.ly/3P7nstQ Watch Surveillance Radio LIVE weekday mornings: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Listen to more Bloomberg Surveillance: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0OA0Pnb-62GrhgZ_ziGyxMJ #Bloomberg #Podcast #Surveillance #News #Markets Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video