Iran & Hezbollah's Missiles SLAM Israel, Trump PANICS | Larry Johnson & Col. Lawrence Wilkerson

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. I am joined by former CIA analyst Larry Johnson and former uh uh chief of staff and retired Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. Gentlemen, thanks so much for joining me today. >> Hey, thank you. >> Yeah. Well, actually, I I wish we were talking about something else for God's sake. >> Yeah, me too. Me, too. But it seems like we'll be talking about this for a little bit, guys. And that is the war of aggression on Iran. Now, one development that has been breaking over the last day or so is Hezbollah's entrance into the war joining Iran in coordinated strikes actually, which uh very few are talking about uh gentlemen. And I just want to uh as I get your reaction to this and your assessment of what is going on, I'm just going to pull up some of the information about these coordinated attacks here. There's uh sirens blaring all over Tel Aviv as we speak due to these attacks. Uh here's DDGO politics. They shared uh the overnight attacks by Iran which coincided with Hezbollah launching rockets and drones at IOF positions as well. Uh that's Israeli uh occupation forces. And I just want to uh pull this up because the entrance of Hezbollah has been furious. The summary of operations since the 4th of March overnight has been incredible. There's been, I believe Hezbollah has hit four Israeli tanks. They've repelled uh because there's a there's a simultaneous invasion of Lebanon uh as uh they attempt to with the United States bomb Iran. And I'm just going to play now as I get your reaction to all of this, Larry. Uh, as you're talking, I'll show the damage of these attacks on Israel, especially Iran's missile attacks because it's being censored heavily. We even have proof of this by CNN right here. >> We're not showing you that because we're not going to show want to go up there. We're not showing you that because we're not going to show u the Israeli government does not allow us or want us to show where that may have come up, that interceptor. >> So, uh, there's heavy censorship, gentlemen. I'm going to play the damage as you talk. So, Larry, what's your reaction? How uh does Hezbollah's entrance change things and what have you made overall of where this war is now? Um as we enter I believe it's day five. >> Are you saying that Hezbollah is still a viable force? >> Thought they were dead. They've been wiped out. They assassinated with that brilliant cell phone blow up. I mean destroyed them. Yeah. See, look. This is just one more example of how this gaslighting goes on in the west where you know the fact of the matter was and I I I was saying it back then that you know Hezbollah went underground the smuggling routes that have existed for millennium were still open and operating. So, uh, maybe they weren't getting direct flights from Tehran anymore, but by God, they were still getting weapons and supplies and and money from Iran and from others. So, you know, with with Hezbollah now entering the fray, it it forces Israel to divide its forces. It does not Israel doesn't have unlimited troops. It doesn't have unlimited supplies. uh and the you know they they they don't learn. So they've gone back in on the ground. They're going to quote get control of the south of the of Lebanon, south of the Latani River. And Hezbollah is already ambushing them, engaging them on the ground, and Israel's taken now more casualties. And some of the reports that are filtering out say that there are growing number of reserveists. are being called up and they're saying, "Hell no, I ain't going to war. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not doing this." Uh, and then, you know, the police are being sent out to round them up, and that's setting off confrontations. So, uh, and I'm still waiting for the Houthies to start weighing in. You know, they they got to start landing their punches as well. The the the fact of the matter is Israel does it. None of its air defense works. None. Mhm. >> The the Iron Dome is designed for basically rockets and drones. It's not stopping a single ballistic missile. And the Patriot as well, the United States supply of Pack 3 missiles will probably be depleted by end of next week or at the start of the following week. I mean, it's that low. Uh unless unless they just, you know, put it there like a museum piece to look at. And similarly with the thads, you know, the terminal high altitude area defense weapon, uh, or terrain high altitude area defense weapon. Uh, they they make 79 of those a year at the tune of 12 to$13 million a pop and they'll fire that two of those to go after a $50,000 drone. [laughter] Yeah, the economics on that just don't quite work out. So this is uh the west can only get away with this line so long and but yet like you know uh grass finding finding a way to grow through concrete the information is going to keep leaking out. Uh I I posted one RT had access to a video yesterday showing is in Tel Aviv F you know firing all these uh uh air defense missiles none of them hitting and then four major impacts of ballistic missiles by uh Iran. So >> yeah. Yeah. And Colonel Wilkerson, I'll just play this uh to emphasize this point here. You'll see uh just what he uh uh Larry means. We won't see the impact here, but we'll see just how many interceptors Israel is firing into the air. It ends up being something like up to a dozen at a time. Uh there you can see it's a little small, but they're in the background just firing, firing, firing, usually at just one uh ballistic missile. But uh uh Colonel Wilkerson, your thoughts? I just showed all the damage damage to a military facility in Tel Aviv, damage to Tel Aviv itself. I think coming up a little bit and I let me echo what Larry was saying. I'm hearing that of the 90,000 reserves they called up, they they barely got 60,000. Um that's a pretty heavy shortfall. Um and other tactical things like that, too. Let me come up a little bit to a higher level of uh analysis, if you will. I think we're looking here at a distinctly different appreciation as Klausitz would say of the nature of this conflict. I'm not sure there's any distinct appreciation on the Trump egg rubio side because listening to them answer questions alone, but listening to them say things that are going to get back to people like Mark Warner who's excoriating them right now from his position on the intelligence committee. um I don't think they have any kind of idea of the nature of the conflict. And that's the first principle of warfare is to understand viscerally the nature of the conflict upon which you're engaged. And let me just point out how widely different the assessments apparently are because I can't pin down what anybody in the US national security structure really thinks. First of all, it seems as if they think this is going to be a short war. It isn't. I got news for them. It's going to be years if they persist. And they are not going to persist because of other things that are going to impact it. Second, they seem to think that the Iranians are the kind of people who roll over. Um, and arming the Kurds is a real good idea to keep airborne on your side. >> Yeah. >> It's ridiculous because one of the reasons those last shipments of helicopters came in is because that's what they're going to use to kill those people and very efficiently. I think so. the the appreciation of what's happening here is diametrically opposed. The Iranians are in it for the long haul with 93 million people and a vast territory. We're in it for a shortterm political boost, a lot of money made and a point that Trump wants to show to MAGA about his war making ability and give to Marian Aden as a you know a president, Israel is safe. All of these things are just hogwash. They're absolute hogwash. I wouldn't be surprised. I just listening to Doug uh on judges show on the judges show and he's worried about the same thing I am that Netanyahu is going to upload three or four nukes and he's going to have them ready and he's going to use them. Uh because Israel is going down the rat hole with this. So that's the biggest concern I have and I haven't even talked about the misappreciation of what it's going to do economically. not just to our allies and friends and potential enemies, but also to us ultimately. Let's look at what Trump did with the strategic petroleum reserve for us. He kept guaranteeing through his first term and then into the politicking for the second term and then into the first month of the second term. He promised to refill the strategic petroleum reserve which is now at dangerously low levels. He hadn't put a jot of oil in that reserve. India's is not in good shape. China's is in great shape. But let's look at India. Modi has quickly come off his I love you BB because you kill Muslims approach to international relations. And looking at reality, $15 billion a day it's going to cost India. If the straight is permanently closed or even semi simil semi-permanmanently closed, they get about 60% of their raw product and their refined product from that straight or through that straight. And look at the route. The route is very short. So India has a very economical situation going on now. They're going to have to different differentiate completely. And what the oil people tell me is that it's probably going to cost India $15 billion just to do it. When we did the exercise I've explained to you before in Beijing Beijing in 2009 had everybody there Marad Loy of London all the shippers all the insurers China Japan Korea all the countries involved we pushed just by taking out at that point Rosenura ostensibly by a terrorist attack 6 and a half million barrels per day as I recall at that time um Rostanur is still impactful but there's a bigger port now um or facility for offloading oil. If we when we took that out with credible people sitting all around the table from all those countries who knew the oil markets had multinationals represented there, Royal Dutch Shell, uh, Exxon Mobile, Total from France and so forth. They went to $200 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude almost immediately. um we haven't seen that yet, but we are seeing them going up. And if we persist and Iran really does close this trade semi-permanmanently or whatever, then you can expect $150 to $200 a barrel. That is going to wreck the world's economy. It is going to take people down and apart. Putin's going to benefit majorly, I prophesize, but it's not going to be good for the world. It's going to be disastrous for the world. So at that level, this conflict is absolutely insane. >> Yeah, I'm glad you brought in the economy here, uh, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, because it's already having an effect on the world economy. We know oil prices have ticked up, uh, to a certain degree. We also hear that, uh, damage to Israel's economy from this war could reach 2.9 billion a week. That's from Israel's defense minister and Larry. I mean, uh, this kind of damage here, I think, uh, would say that yes, the economy could be in really Oh, sorry about that. Here we go. Let me remove that. Uh, uh, I'll pull it up again uh, in a second. But yeah, $2.9 billion a week hemorrhaging from the Israeli economy alone. We know oil prices are going [clears throat] up as well. Uh, but Larry, your thoughts? Well, um, Saudi Arabia is actually going to probably come out of this a little bit better than I had initially anticipated because I forgot that the Saudis have an oil pipeline that goes e from their eastern shore on the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. So, as long as the Houthies don't start blowing up uh Saudi ships, now you can can never rule that out. [snorts] U, the Saudi oil will continue to get out to the market. The ones who are really screwed are Qatar and uh the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. They don't have that outlet. they are utterly dependent and within uh with let's take Qatar it's two two of its major uh economic activities are one the supply of liquid natural gas that is now shut down and the word is to get it restarted and going back to sort of business as normal is going to take at least a month and the liquid natural gas market is such that it it's not Like, you know, if you're a smoker [clears throat] and you know, you I'm out my I need to get a new pack of cigarettes. You just run to the store and get one. No, there's there's no store you go to to get some more liquid natural gas. That stuff is contracted in advance 6 months to a year out. So, there natural gas that's on currently on ships, that's already spoken for. So, particularly in Europe, they are they're going to be suffering and and quick uh quickly. So, um so you've got that and then the aluminum smelter that Qatar has, you know, reportedly it's going to take that a year to get back online. So, right away, Qatar's uh you know, bright economic future that it had counting on the United States to cover its cause. We they had Aluded Air Force Base there, a major I mean that's been the major gateway for the US military going in and out of the region. I I mean I was there uh I showed up there in May of 20 2006 in route to Iraq going up to Balad and you know they had this this incredible facility there at Aluded uh hot as blazes but uh you know we were all all all US personnel flowed through there to get into Iraq or to get into Syria. So uh that's gone. you know, the other thing and and United Arab Emirates, uh, you know, they're suffering as well. So, they're going to they're going to be putting enormous pressure on the White House, uh, and, you know, they've already made frantic phone calls, uh, to Putin. Now, the the the Israelis, to show you how despicable they are, uh, they've been conducting false flag attacks. They carried out an attack on the oil, the Ramco in Saudi Arabia. Uh Iran has been pretty careful to limit its attacks to US military and intelligence targets in the the Persian Gulf and they have been quite effective. Uh it is it has effectively driven the United States out of the Persian Gulf. that at Aluded which is you know again you had the combined air operations center Kaok which was uh coordinating all air operations military operations in the in the region it can't do it anymore because the radar the billion dollar radar uh system was destroyed by Iran using apparently a drone you know and the so-called air defense there didn't work So, uh, you lost that. The fifth fleet that was based out of Bahrain, it's its headquarters is decimated. So, they're not going back in there. You know, you've got and thinking ahead when uh when all this fighting stops eventually, because it will stop. Uh, United States may say, "Okay, well, hey, we're ready to get back to work." And I could see these countries said, "No, sorry. We're not having you back anymore. We we don't you bring too much baggage uh with you. Um the you know Iran is taking steps to try to not you know it's been coordinating with Saudi Arabia and uh so the Israel's efforts to you know spark a broader war so far have failed. Similarly, Israel has launched attacks in Azerbaijan and at Turkey that they they tried to blame on uh Iran and Iran is quick to get to both say hey no that's not us. Um and then in Cyprus again that attack in Cypress was initially touted as oh this was Iran attacking Cypress. It looks like instead it was Israel trying to make it look like it was Iran. Why? Because if you get NATO involved, if you get an article five incident, then all of a sudden it's a war of NATO versus Iran. That's what Israel is trying to pull off. And uh so far Iran has been able to withstand it. But you know, the amount of gaslighting that's going on is is is phenomenal. And one final comment about those radars, the radar similar system destroy destroyed in in Bahrain. When we got a when we talk of multi-layer layered air defense that the the foundation of it is those radars because they can detect immediately where a launch is where it's headed and I hadn't appreciated this point until now. Think back to the 12-day war. During that entire 12-day war, those radars were working and giving Israel fornowledge of where the missiles were coming in at and they could prepare some to def to defend themselves. They can't do it now. That's gone. Uh there is no immediate replacement. And some reporting indicates that Iran has destroyed up to five of those kinds of radar systems scattered throughout the region. So, uh, you know, the United States and Israel, they decided to pick a fight that they're not ready to finish. And what they've created instead of, uh, creating uh, despair and uh, discontent in Iran, they've unified the society. The same phenomena we saw in the United States in the immediate aftermath of the attacks of 911 in 2001. And I I don't want to get into there was a CIA operation or MS just step back that there were political divisions on September 10th and then on September 12th all of a sudden there was a unity and Colonel Wilkerson can talk about that uh far better than than I can. >> Yeah. Well uh Colonel Wilkerson please uh uh jump in. I can pull up images too of the damage because the censorship has been less uh severe when it comes to the damages we're seeing on these bases and uh I believe also Larry uh to your point uh Iran has also taken out I believe two THAAD systems now which is also a big deal because I think only three >> I think there's only 11 of those or there were 11 of those. >> Yeah. >> So anyway Wilson please get [clears throat] in here. >> Yeah. that's forcing us to do some other things that are not good for us and not good for our alliances. When you go to the Korean peninsula and you get some of the things that are there, they are expressly there supposedly according to the Koreans and according to strategic directive number one to defend Korea. And you start going for another conflict and pulling things off the peninsula to bring them to that conflict, the Koreans begin to have even deeper doubts about whether or not you're there to defend it. So, we're doing that sort of thing, too. Um, and as to that pipeline, I can't wait to see. It's not pumping fully yet. And one of the reasons that Saudi Arabia and the Emirates were having problems with Alansar, the Houthis, was that pipeline, lesser reason, but it was a reason. And I could just see the Houthis jumping on that pipeline. It doesn't take much. Doesn't take much at all. One of the problems with pipelines like the ones that are building all over the world now is they need peace. Uh because if you don't have peace, gorillas even can come in and disrupt your pipelines. And if they know what they're doing, they can disrupt them majorly so that you can't get to them and use them for months if not years. We found that out in Syria when Paul Wolfitz ordered General Franks ordered him from his deputy secretary of defense position. We know that now from principal documents to bomb a certain head in Syria in order to prevent that pipeline from doing what the Syrians were planning on doing with it. And we then moved in and diverted it to pump oil to Israel. Of course, uh, and there's a lot more to that story, but illegal oil, let's face it, subcost oil has been going into Israel with us expediting it ever since Mark Rich formed Glenor and started stealing oil out of the UN oil for food program and shipping it at discounted prices using this pipeline from time to time as well as others into Israel. That's why BB Netanyahu as finance minister became so politically tenable because of the job he did as finance minister. Well, he was doing it off illicit oil. And of course, Mark Rich got caught at it and was put in jail. But Bill Clinton on his way out of the Oval Office, guess what he did? He pardoned him. So, this has been going on for a long time with oil. And it's going to be really interesting to see what Russia and China now with Iran do for the Houthis to make them even more powerful than they already were. Remember Pete Hex's great boast about we will open the Red Sea and everything will be great again. And he failed categorically. They'll do it again. And then we'll have the Babel Mandeb which is really a far more important straight than the straight of Hormuz also an untenable passage untenable passage point and it's for a lot more than oil and gas. It's for everything virtually the world makes that passes through the Suez Canal. So we're looking at the possibility again I can't iterate this enough or reiterate it enough. We're looking at the possibility for a global situation that truly rebounds to a lot of people's hurt, harm, damage, and they are going to hate our guts. I can't imagine a single NATO country no matter Article 5 under any consequences jumping into this fray because fundamentally they don't like us anymore. and they're going to like us even less when they see the economic picture that's shaping up because of what we've done now because we don't understand the nature of this conflict. And coming back to that, the most profound one we don't understand is the likelihood of BB Netanyahu opening the nuclear box and letting the genie out. Because I have no doubt that if Israel is going down and he can't get confirmation in his own head, get his head around that we are destroying Iran, I don't have any any doubt that he'll use one. That's really a problem. >> Yeah, I would I would say so. Uh Larry, before we came on, you said uh that uh Donald Trump, the Trump administration, the US and Israel, of course, because this is both of their war, uh were desperate. Now, of course, we have uh a thousand, I believe, Iranians having been killed up until this point. And we have a lot of hubris coming from the likes of Secretary of War, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegth. I'm just going to play that uh a bit of what he said in his report uh just to torture you. But >> I'm going to file I'm going to file a human rights abuse case against you. >> Cruel and unusual punishment I'm violating. But here here's what you >> see my Christian symbols. [clears throat] >> Yeah. [laughter] Yep. And here he goes uh talking a really big game and I definitely want both of your thoughts about it. Here we go. In a few days, in under a week, the two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies. Uncontested airspace. I hope all the folks watching understand what uncontested airspace and complete control means. It means we will fly, all day, all night, day and night, finding, fixing, and finishing the missiles and defense industrial base of the Iranian military. finding and fixing their leaders and their military leaders flying over Thran, flying over Iran, flying over their capital, flying over the RGC, Iranian leaders looking up and seeing only US and Israeli air power every minute of every day until we decide it's over. and Iran will be able to do nothing about it. B2s, B-52s, B1s, Predator drones, fighters controlling the skies, picking targets, death and destruction from the sky all day long. We're playing for keeps. Our war fighters have maximum authorities granted personally by the president and yours. >> So, there it is, uh, Larry. And I now I wanted to sh He They definitely are uh hitting things. Here's uh some of the things uh they are hitting. Uh here's one. Here's Oh. Oh, I think this is a decoy actually. So, this is one of the things that's been going around. Uh Larry, a lot of talk about uh all this control. There's also talk about this war now going uh it was supposed to be four days. Now they're saying eight weeks. Now they're saying it could go longer than that. What do you make of this? Let me let me ask you a couple of questions. >> Sure. >> Did we have complete control of the air over Yemen last uh March during Operation Rough Rider? >> Absolutely. I mean, >> yeah, we did. We did. >> Yeah. >> How'd that work? How'd that work out? [laughter] >> Well, uh they totally capitulated in the fantasy of Donald Trump's mind. >> Did Did we RPA, too? >> Did do we have F-18s? Do we have complete air supremacy and control over the air in Iraq in as of May 2003? >> Yeah. >> How'd that work out? How about Afghanistan? >> 20 years >> we controlled it. >> How did that work out? To put it politely, Pete Hegth is a D and an ignorant man with no understanding of history. If he if he had just the the intelligence level of a he would understand that there is no example in modern history of air power bringing about regime change. Zero. We tried it in Serbia in 1999. Didn't work. We tried it in Iraq. Had to put troops in on the ground. Even after we got the troops on the ground, instead of mission accomplished in on May 1st of 20, 2003, we had another basically 10 years of an insurgency that we were unable to quell until we started paying off the shakes. Um so the uh and actually we had somewhat we didn't have full control in Vietnam but our operation rolling thunder uh well we got a lot of pilots put into P camps that was one of the major accomplishments but apart from the the United States apart from Vietnam has not fought a country with the military power and the the size that Iran has. And I would simply note they've had four F-15 Eagles shot down in the last three days. And no, it was not friendly fire the first time. >> Are you sure it wasn't Kuwait firing at the >> Yeah. Okay. So, you know, >> three times in a row. Are you sure? >> Well, first we're told, oh, they were taken down by Patriot missiles. No, no, no, no. They were taken down by a by a Kuwaiti pilot. >> By Yeah. F-16, I think they said, right? The F-16 was taking down the F-15s. >> Yeah. Get your get your story straight, guys. Uh, you know, those jets have IFFF, you know, international friend foe, you know, identify friend foe and it's tied into the into the uh uh air defense systems. Now, I could believe one mistake, but not three. And then they did initially admit yesterday they admitted that another one was shot down inside Iran. The pilots, the two pilots were recovered by the combat search and rescue US uh CESAR. Uh and then today uh Sentcom took it down. They they pulled that. Oh, it didn't happen. Nothing to see here. Move along. So yeah, uh Heg Seth is he needs to pull his head out of his Yeah, Colonel Wilkersonson too. Same. >> I could I couldn't agree more. Um, you study the history of air power ever since Duet and others contended it was the end all and be all and you'll find out that it has never been the end all and be all, but you can't convince air people of that fact. Even if you look at World War II where we know now papers having been revealed and informal conversations and very confidential conversations having been revealed. The real reason of our daylight precision bombing was not to get Germany in terms of its industry. In fact, the reports the BDAS and everything showed that German production actually increased over those years of incessant daylight precision bombing. It was really to get the lofa to rise up against those B7s. My father, if he knew that today, would be pretty furious about it because he was in those B7s. But it was to get the lofa to come up and shoot them down. So that when we did enter the continent of Europe, Operation Overlord finally delayed a whole year really because we hadn't finished that task yet. But when we did enter, you hardly saw a German plane contest it. And that was the purpose. It wasn't to destroy German production. That was incidental. And it did not happen to the extent that we said it did. It was to get the lof and to come up and shoot them down. So if you have an indirect strategy like that, air power might add to your eventual victory. But it is not going to win the war for you. And it is most assuredly Pete baby Christian Zionist going to defeat 93 million people on the ground who are probably extending the middle finger to every PGM you send their way. Sorry. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> This morning Doug pointed out I didn't know this. hadn't been expressly checking on it, but he pointed out that even considering JD dams, which essentially take an iron bomb and make it a precision guide ammunition, we are running out of PGMs. So Pety, if there's only a week or two of PGMs left, it ain't going to do you much good to drop those old iron bombs all over that place. And I'm sure we got tons of them. We dropped more iron bombs on North Vietnam than we do dropped on Germany in World War II. >> Dumb iron bombs. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, uh, Larry, you know, how does this refle reflect this the the desperation because now we keep on hearing the timeline get bigger and bigger and bigger and as you said, they're facing an adversary that unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, I mean Yemen had some fight back capabilities, but unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, uh, in 2003, 2001, 2003, Iran has already shown that it it's not just hitting back at the US in direct confrontation. It's hitting everywhere. Uh I mean it's hitting every single asset that the US has in the region. >> Well, it has it has now in less than a week it Iran has driven the United States out out of its military bases in the Persian Gulf. uh none of our none of our facilities like and the principal the principal one aloud uh in Qatar and uh and Bahrain the na the naval base those were critical operation centers a lot of activity activity is not going on there now those pe they had we had to abandon those facilities so right there the uh Iran has effectively curtailed the US ability to project force through those outlets. [snorts] The other thing is um and Danny Davis showed a map yesterday of where basically all these attacks had taken place in Iran. And when you see when you see that map, it runs from Tehran in the north and running due south it it it represents a distance of about 250 miles from the border with Saudi Arabia going east. What does that mean? That means all of these missiles, all of these explosions we're seeing in Tehran in particular and around the country are being launched from outside the uh terrain of Iran. Why? Because Iran actually still does have uh an air defense system that once uh the US planes get in there, uh it looks like it's it's been pretty effective in shooting them down. It's not good against the missiles. uh you know and and this is uh the Chinese reportedly do have uh technicians in Iran. They're basically testing to see what works and what doesn't. And so there's lessons being learned every day and uh you know the United States is tipping its hand. I I would I want to go back to the second though and you know Colonel Colonel Wilkerson will appreciate this. Can you imagine the fist fight that's going to take place over at the Pentagon between commander of Sentcom and Commander of Indopaccom? Because right now the there are a total of 14, if I recall correctly, 14 Patriot missile battalions. Each battalion has between four to six batteries. uh three of those battalions are assigned to endopaccom and uh so when you do the math uh you got three so that means you got anywhere from you know 12 uh to 18 uh batteries and each battery fires has a supply of either it depends on the configuration but either 72 pack 3 uh missiles or 96. So um when when you look at the total the total production of pack 3 missiles since 2015 total 4,620 that's the total. And when when you understand that when they are employed in in combat, you fire two of those per incoming target. Now, we've delivered at least a,000 of those to Ukraine. So, right away, subtract from 4,620. Now, we're down to 3,620. And then you're looking at least, you know, close to uh, you know, at the upper end. Do the math. 96 times 18. Uh so you're you're you're well over a thousand um packed missiles up in Indopaccom. So I literally the United States is running out. They're going to run out if not this week, next week or the week after. It also depends on, you know, if they got targets that they can think they got a reasonable chance of hitting. So that that fight the this is this is going to be a real fight because you're going to have those who argue, hey, the real the real threat is China. It's not Iran. And you know the that that's going to set off some real turmoil uh in the entire defense establishment. >> Yeah, I was Danny I was really surprised listening to Mark Warner this morning. I don't know when he said this because there's no date stamp on the video, but I [clears throat] think it was very within the last 48 hours. He was very dramatically saying there is no threat to the United States of America from Iran. There is no threat. Now, there is a threat to Israel, but tell me why we are going to war over a threat to another country. I didn't think I'd ever hear a sitting senator, even a Democrat, of Mark Warner's status and position in the Senate to say that. So, we are rapidly awakening some people in the third branch of the US government with this war. >> Well, and Danny, you're too young to remember. In fact, you may not even when uh when uh George HW Bush >> Yeah, I wasn't born >> back in 1988 >> made the famous promise, read my lips, no new taxes. And then what happened? He raised taxes and then he got hicked in the subsequent election. Now Trump's not going to run in a subsequent election, but there will be an election in November. and the betrayal. Uh, you know, we saw yesterday when Alex Jones jumps off the Trump train, you know, he's in trouble. And I mean, he Jones was almost crying. But, uh, and outraged over the fact that Trump promised, "I'm not going to start any new wars. I'm not going to get us involved with endless wars in the Middle East." And that's exactly what he's done. and the the the people uh in his base uh significant number of them are they're abandoning Trump. They're going to abandon the Republicans in the fall and then all of a sudden you got a Democrat House of Representatives. You got a Democrat Senate and Trump will be impeached and he will be convicted. I'll make that prediction right now. I was standing I was watching one this morning about 4:30 this morning. Um and they played all of the times they had on file. It was 14 different episodes. I counted them of Trump saying that Biden was a fool, that the presidents who went into the Middle East were fools, that he would never go into the Middle East, he would never do it over and over and over again. [laughter] >> Y okay, MAGA, that's what you elected. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, uh you know, uh and the of course the goalpost keeps on moving. So uh here you know Israel is saying that and I think I think they're right here no matter how much uh hazara they spread that Iranian government Iran's government is far from collapse that is coming straight uh from Harets that there is no uh uh there's no indication that Iran is anywhere close if at all it could be I I think it's the opposite. Um, so there's a there's a just there is a level of I think ineffectiveness and incompetence here that's being demonstrated. I want to ask you Lar uh Larry, both of you, why is it that the US I'll play some of this while you're talking. Why does the US Sentcom Why does it publish all of these strikes on decoys? because I think that's quite there are people who are showing quite aptly that they're showing images and videos of how many thing how how they're crushing [snorts] Iran's military and they're literally thermal painted images I I'll show a few of these but >> Larry to you why are they doing that >> again they they think that they're legitimate they don't they're they don't understand history you know if they they knew history they'd go back to the air war in Serb Serbia back in 1999. >> Man, we blew the hell out of Serbian artillery which turned out to be card. Yeah. Either cardboard or carts and logs. Wooden logs made, you know, made to look like a cannon barrel. Yeah. And this is the the the one that gets me is, oh man, we're destroying all their launchers. Really? Because we had seven weeks trying to do that with the Houthies and we really had a hell of a time doing that. And the terrain in Iran is far more favorable for hiding launchers and moving them around. So, you know, again, we're we're propagandizing ourselves. And meanwhile, um you know, the the this is how their analytical minds work. They say, "Oh, well, yeah, we're really having effect because Iran's not firing as many missiles. They're firing 30% less now than they were the other day. Yeah. Why could that be? Well, that's because we degraded and destroyed them. Oh, that's one possibility. Let's let's entertain this. Their initial flush of missiles and drones was designed to saturate our air defense system, force us to deplete our air defense system, which it has actually accomplished so far. And then once they've got it depleted, they don't have to fire as many missiles to get through. so that they can now take a leisurely pace just continue to carve us up, which is what they're doing. I mean, if our air defense system worked, we'd still have our personnel in those bases in Bahrain and aloud. We don't. And they they've had to abandon ship, so to speak. So, this is uh um it's a war that neither the United States nor Israel can control. And the situation in Israel, even though the sensors are working desperately to control the information, it's getting critical. They're not, you know, five more days of this kind of punishment. And they are going to be begging Trump, we got to get this stop. Stop it. You know, I think it's it's not likely that Israel that Iran's going to say, oh, we surrender. We give up. We can't stand this. They they don't understand the and it's not fanaticism but it's like it's like the faith of Christian martyrs. The faith of Muslim martyrs is this. We our our fate is in the hands of God. If I live, it's according to the will of Allah. If I die, it's according to the will of Allah and I'll be with Allah in paradise. and but we're going we're going to fight. We're not going to give up. They they forget the Shia the heritage of the Shia comes down to this this the third son of the prophet, you know, back and we're going back, you know, more than a thousand years. But, uh, he was surrounded. He he refused to accept this corrupt successor uh to the prophet and he went out with only 70 men and he faced an army of 3,000. He lost. He was defeated. He was killed. But the point was he didn't care what the odds were. He was going to fight until and he took as many with him as he can. Uh we don't have that level of commitment in the West. nor does Israel because they're the the these Zionists are not driven by a deep religious faith. They're driven by hatred. And I I would argue that the religious faith of the Shia will prove more enduring and more powerful than anything that the West has to offer. And that's Danny, let me make a comment on that because I just finished watching John Hegy raring his crowd up, you know, [clears throat] and Larry's absolutely right. I will bet you I I'd love to see it tested if I could somehow affect an experiment that those people in that audience who were all rah rah about Jesus coming down with a flaming sword and Armageddon and all of which Haggi was predicting of course and I know you won't believe this Danny but we have a considerable problem in the armed forces of the United States right now with that very phenomenon and Hexath has done nothing but deepen it >> and make it more profound. Um, but I'd love to see them on a battlefield. Of course, they're not going to go on a battlefield for the very reasons that Larry just discussed. They're a bunch of cowards. And they don't have a deep religious faith other than I want to be wafted up to the kingdom with Jesus, and I want to live forever. That's all their faith says [snorts] to them. And, you know, I'm sure there are some of them that have some courage, but fundamentally, Hegy, put Hegy on a battlefield. How long would Hegy last? Maybe a minute. But Larry's right. The other side is not that way. >> No. Well, and and let's remember u among Muslims, Jesus is at least revered as a prophet. >> Yes. >> The Jews, Jesus is nothing. In fact, if [snorts] you are Jewish, I mean, if you're ethnically born Jewish, genetically Jewish, and you convert to Christianity, you're not allowed to return to Israel as a citizen >> because they are anti-Christian. The Muslims rever revere Mary, the mother of Jesus, as one of the holiest women. and she's she's either number one or number two on their list. Uh the uh the Zionists refer to her as a and yet we're we're siding with those people. It's ridiculous. >> This is the most bizarre relationship that Huckabe Huckabe is our ambassador in Jerusalem stands most prominent in defending and others like him that I've ever seen befall the Christian church. It's bizarre. It really is. I I've studied the other three or four, depending on your historian, great awakenings all the way from Salem forward. Um, this is bizarre. This is a bizarre great awakening. One of them produced prohibition, of course, one of the worst things that ever happened in this country. The progenitor of organized crime, if you will. Um, so they've been dangerous for us, but this one is utterly bizarre that it is infiltrating our armed forces to the extent that it has. And I'm not just talking about the ranks. I'm talking about flag officers, too. >> Yeah. And that gets me to the question, Larry, and to both of you. uh given that uh killing Iranian people as the US and Israel are doing is not weakening uh the Iranian government and the sovereignty of Iran. It actually seems to be doing quite the opposite. Given that uh the United States is showing decoys and and telling fantasies about Iran's military being degraded to the point of no return, given these realities and the fact that they have the Trump administration has supposedly kept sending US troops in a in large numbers to Iran, are we going to see that? uh and what exactly would be the outcome of such what I believe would be one of the biggest crises uh that the United States as a so-called empire has faced in uh maybe history if if that if that is going to be the case >> we we don't even have the manpower >> to even number one to even attempt it number two recall that uh with the both in 2003 and then go back into the uh the first Gulf War in 199 1990, we we needed a minimum of about 8 months uh to uh deploy forces to the area to prepare for quote a ground operation because it's not just uh infantry, you've got armor as well that has to be shipped and and that's not done in one week. You know, this is not this is not like a crisis response deployment that the special operations community does. you know, I I worked those operations for 23 years or exercises where they they're supposed to be able to get up and go within 24 hours, 48 hours. Uh, you know, that's moving a small number of people, that's moving, you know, maybe 200 people at maximum. No, no. What we're talking about here is when you realize that uh the Iranian combination of the revolutionary guard, the regular army and the bajis uh you're looking at over a million people and so the the proper ratio is you need about a 3 to1 advantage. So we we have to take our 470,000 army supplemented by what is about 110,000 Marines. Uh so you know that gets us up to about close to 600,000. Yeah. We only need to uh multiply that by five, get up to about a 3 million man army to take on uh Iran to have any hope of capturing it and conquering it. That not going to happen. And the again, how how where are we going to stage these forces? At least in Saudi Arabia, we had that whole long border up there. We could stage and uh you know, they could still the ISR back then was not as sophisticated as as it is today. Um so when you start staging those kinds of forces as we've [clears throat] seen in Ukraine, uh they get the hell blown out of them. So, I mean, this this boots on the ground nonsense is not even thinking through what the reality is of what's needed in order to maintain the logistics train just to keep the troops supplied with ammunition, food, and water. [cough] >> Well, uh, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, what what else uh would be I mean, is there anything else that we're we're not uh discussing when it comes to this idea of US troops? Because >> Well, Larry's right. Larry's absolutely right. You you would have to at least partially and I would suggest you would have to fully mobilize. And when you fully mobilize the Army Reserve, you will find that it's 33 to 40% short. It's short in areas like hospitals, doctors, [clears throat] nurses, and other essentials of a war like this would be. Mobilize the Naval Reserve. You'll find it's a solid 40% short and basically in the same categories. the Marine Corps Reserve in a little better shape, but that's not very many soldiers. And the Air Force Reserve, little better shape, but you're really not augmenting anything but technicians really. So Larry's absolutely right. First, you need a place to land, and it needs to be benign, as it was for us in the first Gulf War, and it needs to have lots of allies who are interested in our succeeded. My god, we had Syrians, French, Turks, and others in that 625,000 force. Um, and it also needs time as Larry suggested. I would say even more time today given the sophistication of the equipment we would try to be bringing with it if we have any left. >> Yeah. >> And it needs basically a benign environment as I said before. By that I mean for a period of time to allow you establish to establish a landfall. Trump and Hexath were talking about putting the fee amphibious bottom out there if you could find one that floats and putting some Marines on it and sending them over to Bondas or wherever and making a landing. Thank you very much. A lot of dead Marines. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and that uh begs the question, Larry, uh how the United States is putting out huge timelines, right? They're as long as it takes. Israel is saying the same thing, but it seems like things are rapidly escalating, especially in regards to the uh air defense problem. Uh how how does that affect things? How does this equipment problem, ammunition problem affects? Because it seems like what Dan Kaine, Raisin Kane was telling the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself before this all started has virtually been, I don't know, suppressed, squashed, ignored. Well, the um the United Iran's strategy right now, they're going to continue to uh if you will uh destroy the US military presence in the in the Persian Gulf. Um there are uh at the same time they're going to continue to hit targets in Tel Aviv, Hifa uh and then the the a couple of air bases uh in in Israel. one primary one Nether team. They're going to they will have to uh you know start destroying aircraft there, but you know they're they're going to they're going to still take casualties, but but they're they're going to be delivering uh more damaging uh attacks particularly to Israel. I Israel does not have the ability to sustain pain. They've only got 7 million people. Iran's got 91 million people. Uh apart from Jerusalem, the bulk of the population lives in Hifa and Tel Aviv in Tel Aviv. Uh they've got about, you know, 4 million uh the population with those two is like 4.2 million out of 7 million. So that's more than that's more than 50% of the population. And so that's where right now Iran is concentrating its its attacks and at some point Israel is going going to demand the United States, you know, get us out of this as they did last June. Only this time there's there's no there's no offramp unless Trump has to come out and say, "Okay, we win. We're pulling out. We acco mission accomplished." But I I don't see Iran at that point stopping. They're not going to stop until they're going to they're going to extract concessions from the West. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> What they've been asking for, right, Colonel Colonel Wilkins? They ask for >> Just going to add to Larry's litany there, which is absolutely spot on 1982 in Lebanon. Had to bail their ass out there, too. That was a Reek Chiron. Errol Chiron. >> Yeah. >> Defense at that time. >> Um, yeah. I I don't disagree with anything he said. I I I think we're in for a long conflict. They don't. They being Hex, Seth, Trump, and Rubio. >> Let me point out another thing about Rubio. Just really got my goat yesterday. He was giving an interview that led me to believe he didn't even know what non-combatant uh evacuation operations consist in. And he didn't even know that in every consulate and embassy we have F77 reports that tell us where all the Americans live, tell us what their telephone number is, how to get them otherwise, where particular [clears throat] >> a plan is and all that kind of stuff. What he meant to say really if he were telling the truth and I listened to him, I don't think he knew the truth, which is incomprehensible for a secretary of state. He hadn't been paying attention to his real job. He was saying that they couldn't get them and couldn't get them to the locations and that they were unaware of what was happening and everything. Well, either one of two things happened. One, they were so interested in tactical surprise that they didn't tell any of the ambassadors in the region that they should be looking at having to get their people out. Two, they don't have that network anymore. And since I toured as chief of staff many of these places to find out if things like this were going according to oil and found out they weren't. I suspect there's some of that operational because if you have a secretary of state who doesn't insist on it, it lapses into latitude. They don't do anything and so they don't expect the crisis and so they don't have any paperwork and they don't know who's where and when. Then the other thing is that he said that they didn't have any aircraft. Well, they had closed the airports, most of them in the areas that Iran was striking for obvious reasons. But you're supposed to have civilian reserve airfleet aircraft on standby and ready to go into whatever they have to go into to evacuate citizens. Think 250,000 Americans in northern part of South Korea in the sole greater metropolitan area and 30,000 North Korean rounds which is what we projected landing on Soul in 10 hours. We still had a NEO planned. He didn't have anything planned. Nothing at all. So we got a bunch of stranded people over there apparently too. uh and God knows what's going to happen to them if Iran continues pounding these uh facilities that belong to us. >> It's just unconscionable. They just didn't think >> that's >> well any uh any closing thoughts for both of you, Larry, you first and then Colonel Works. Uh for sure we can get >> Yeah, this uh you know the Trump expectation for a quick end to the war. I mean they literally thought that it'd be over by now. Uh we're going to be talking about this next week and the week after and all of this early euphoria about hey we win we you know we've seen this over and over and over uh again you you you were probably just uh uh early in you know in high school or college when George W. Bush uh stepped and you know what you know what aircraft carrier he was on when he did his mission accomplished speech >> which >> the Abraham Lincoln the same one that's out there in the Arabian Sea right now. So hey he announced mission accomplished on May 1st 2003 and we were still fighting an insurgency there eight years later. So, [laughter] >> uh, you know, like I said, we we've learned nothing >> nothing from history. >> Yeah. Final any final thoughts, Colonel Workers, before you head out? >> Um, my final thought is that once I walked into the chairman's office and I said, "General, can I say something in confidence to you that'll be really damning?" He said, "I don't know. What is it?" [laughter] I said, "We should never have a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff again who is an Air Force officer. No, that's true. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um, it'll Yeah. Well, this is, like I said, there's going to be a food fight uh in the Pentagon. May actually be underway now. >> Yeah. >> But, uh, the they're going to face the need to try to uh strip Indopaccom of the Patriot missile batteries >> and battalion or two. and the end of Paycom's going to scream and they're they're going to go to their political allies on the hill and the whole anti-China crowd's going to rise up. So, this is >> this is going to be a disaster. >> Yep. Well, everybody, uh, thanks so much for watching. We had a huge we had a huge audience today for, uh, Larry and Colonel Wilkerson. So, make sure you go to the video description where you can find Larry Johnson's blog. I put up all the super chats and new members and current members, all of that. Thanks so much for your support. We didn't get to questions today, but we will have plenty of time for that because this war uh is not over uh by any stretch of the imagination. Hit the like button before you go. That helps boost the stream so more people can hear Larry and Colonel Wilkerson after the show is over. All the places support this channel are there as well. Patreon, Substack, and more. And tomorrow, I'll be back 11:30 a.m. Eastern time with Charmaine Narwani of the Cradle as we continue daily reports on this war and analysis. All right, everybody. See you then. Bye-bye. Thanks a lot.

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson REACT to Trump and Israel's war on Iran going fully regional as Hezbollah has entered the field and is coordinating massive missile and drone strikes on Israel with Iran. Trump administration panic is reaching fever pitch as a race against dwindling ammunition and defenses meets Iran's furious retaliation. Larry Johnson blog: https://sonar21.com/ PATREON.COM/DANNYHAIPHONG Support the channel in other ways: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dannyhai... Substack: chroniclesofhaiphong.substack.com Cashapp: $Dhaiphong Venmo: @dannyH2020 Paypal: https://paypal.me/spiritofho Follow me on Telegram: https://t.me/dannyhaiphong #iran #trump #israel #hezbollah