BOUNCE BACK: Atlanta Braves' Austin Riley & Ozzie Albies Set to EXPLODE in 2026

Every year you have players who regress or break out. And unfortunately for the Atlanta Braves, the last two years they've had nothing but regression. But I'm going to give you five Atlanta Braves players who I think will bounce back and have a big season in 2026. You are Locked on Braves, your daily Atlanta Braves podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hey, and welcome back to Locked On Braves, part of Locked On Sports Atlanta, where we cover your favorite Atlanta sports teams each and every day. Also part of the Locked On podcast network, the number one sports podcast network. I'm your host, Jake Mastriani. You can follow me on social media at shortstop. Been coming the Atlanta Braves in both written and podcast form for over 10 years now. And this is Locked on Braves, your daily connection to all things Atlanta Braves. On today's podcast, we're going to be looking at five bounceback candidates for the Atlanta Braves who I think can really turn things around in 2026. And I think there's reasons to be hopeful for that. This episode of Locked On Braves is brought to you by MLB The Show 26. Visit MLB the.show/lockdon. Use code lockdown to unlock a pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. You can pre-order it now. Be available on March 17th on PlayStation 5, Xbox, and Nintendo Switch. Rated E for everyone. and stay tuned later in the episode for our MLB top 100 highlight. So, in today's discussion, we're going to be looking at five bounceback candidates for the Atlanta Braves. And at the top of that list, you probably probably already know who it's going to be, and that is, of course, Austin Riley. This is probably the most obvious one and the most important one. As we've talked about a lot this off season, he's my X factor for a reason. I think if Austin Riley can bounce back and be an Austin Riley that we've seen in the past, I believe this offense will be one of the best in baseball again. Riley is coming off back-toback disappointing seasons that have been filled with injuries to his hand and his oblique and abdominant abdomen area. His 2024 season ended with that broken hand. His 2025 season ended with a sports hernia surgery. And in that 2025 season, Riley slashed 260 309 428 with a 103 WRC plus 100 is league average. Austin Riley was just barely above that at 103. His career marks are 270, 334, 492, and a 122 WRC plus. So, this was a big downgrade in on base percentage and power for Austin Riley in areas that you really need to see him make some improvements on in 2026. His strikeout rate also jumped up to 28.6% this past season, over two points higher than his career mark. And you look at the expected stats for Austin Riley. His expected batting average last year was just 246. So, he actually outperformed that mark. But his actual slugging of 428 was 44 points lower than his expected slug. So while he did outperform in average, he well underperformed in slugging percentage based on the metrics. And as we talked about on the X Factor episode, nothing in Riley's batted ball profile shows a decline in skills. He still hits the ball extremely hard. The strikeouts and negative run value on four seamers and sliders is concerning, but that could be explained by the increased hip slide in his swing that Tim Hires helped find and point out to him in the off season. If he gets that corrected, gets, you know, on time more with those pitches, has a little bit longer to recognize those pitches, I definitely think that could turn things around. And it is just spring training, but the early results for Austin Riley have been really, really good. And again, it is just spring training. I understand that, but it's all we have to go on right now for this upcoming season. I fully expect a healthy Austin Riley to get back to being that, you know, 120, 130 W wrc plus level of hitter that's 20 or 30 points better than average, you know, an all-star level type of player and potentially even somebody that gets MVP votes. Again, I I really do think Austin Riley is capable of doing that. Putting up a 30 and 100 season, hitting 260, 270. that is well within Austin Riley's grasp. And I think if healthy this season, we're gonna see him bounce back to being that top of the order bat that he's been for the Atlanta Braves for so many years now. The next bounceback candidate for me is Azie Albies. Aussie is coming off the worst season of his career in 2025. So it's pretty lowhanging fruit here as well to say that he'll improve in 2026. But there's also justification behind why you can think Aussie Albi is going to bounce back. In 2025, he played in 157 games, but he slashed just 240, 306, 365 with a WRC plus of 87. Again, 100 is the league average. Anything above that is good. Anything below that is bad. He was at 87 last year. It's really the first time that he's played an entire season or virtually entire season and not been a productive player. I I've always said in the past that as long as Aussie plays, you know, he's he's a guy he needs to accumulate stats over the course of an entire season. He's very streaky player. He's up and down, but you give him 160 games and his numbers are usually going to be there. That had always been true until last year where he did play 157 games, but he was well below average offensively. Now, his career marks are a 266 average, a 320 on base percentage. He's never been a big on base guy, but a 455 slugging percentage. He's always been when healthy, somebody that can slug the baseball and a career 105 WRC plus. So, we're not talking about somebody that is a well above average offensive player, but certainly not somebody that needs to be 87 WRC plus either. He needs to be at least league average, if not a little bit above. I still think Aussie has some 110 seasons left in him, but that's nearly 90 points lower on his slugging percentage. And again, if you're an everydayer, you know, I say this all the time. The one thing that Azie has to have in order to be a productive player, he has to have that power. His entire offensive profile is really built on that power. Now, hopefully we see some more of the speed side come into play this year, but he's not somebody, as I said earlier, that takes his walks. never really going to have a very high on base percentage. You know, his batting average is going to sit somewhere in the 260 range, but it is definitely somebody that when they're healthy can hit 25 to 30 home runs. But the reason to be optimistic about Aussie this year in bouncing back is that we know that the lack of slug was due in large part to his hand taking a while to heal. Now, you look at the expected stats for Aussie, he had an expected batting average of 243 last year, and expected slug of 366. So those were basically right in line with his actual numbers. But again, you had the injury that really I think played a large part in why those numbers were down, particularly the slugging percentage. And if you look at the expected stats or or I'm sorry, if you look at what he did in the second half of last year, he slugged 433 over the final two months. The only real concern now is that he ended the year with another injury in the hand wrist area, breaking that hammate bone. And we know that it takes a while for the power to come back after that hammate bone injury. However, he did have his at the end of last year. He should be fully recovered and hopefully that power is back for Aussie. We saw the walk-off home run for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic. So hopefully that power is already starting to come back for him. And if it is, I expect Azie to be that 25 30 home run type of hitter. Certainly outpac that 87 WRC plus that we saw in 2025 for Aussie Alb. So those are my top two bounceback candidates. Again, both of those pretty lowhanging fruit we've talked about already. Azie coming off a career low season with the injury to the hand. You expect him fully healthy to be able to bounce back. Austin Riley, we talked about a lot on the XFactor episode. You can see the injuries definitely plagued him. that hip slide. If he can get back healthy, I think he's going to have a big season as well because there's nothing really in the batted profile for batted ball profile for Riley to explain why he was so bad last season. But I have three more bounceback candidates for the Atlanta Braves. Yes, they have a lot of candidates because they've had a lot of regression over the last two years. We'll look at those candidates here next. 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Head to lockdownbraves.supcast.com supercast.com or tap the link in the show notes. Well, I have three more bounceback candidates for you for the Atlanta Braves this upcoming season that I think have a relatively good chance of seeing them get back to where they've been in the past. We talked about Riley, we talked about Aussie Alb's, but next I want to talk about Michael Harris. Um, and again, another one that's feels like lowhanging fruit is he like Aussie coming off a career worst season. And like Riley, he's also on a four-year decline offensively. Now, again, like Riley, two of those years were still really good, but the last two seasons in particularly in particular have been very bad for Michael Harris. However, there's still plenty of reason to believe that Michael will bounce back and have a good year in 2025. For one, he's still just 25 years old. I know that is hard to really imagine and believe just because it feels like he's been around for a while, but he's still just 25. He came up so young. And as we talked about on last week's Melbag episode, he's never really had to struggle and he's never really had to adjust. He flew up through the minor leagues. He came up, he won rookie of the year and then he backed it up with another solid season in 2023. He dealt with injuries throughout 2024 that I think were it was fair to blame that on the down production that season, but now you have two years in a row of being a below average offensive player. I think Michael really has to consider making some adjustments and it sounds like he might be doing that at least from what we've heard and seen so far in spring training. But getting back to 2025, he slashed 249, 268, 409 with a WRC plus of 83. His career marks are 274, 307, 451 with a 106 WRC plus. So the career path of Michael and Azie and just their situations are so so similar. Both guys are never going to be or I shouldn't say never. Michael Steel is pretty young, but they're never going to I just said it again. They're most likely not going to have and ever be big on base guys, but Michael has shown in the past that with his ability, he can hit for high enough average that the onbase is going to be fine. But it is very much dependent on that batting average. But both guys have shown a good amount of power. And look at the expected stats for Michael Harris last year. A 268 expected batting average and a 438 expected slugging percentage. So, in his rookie year, he way outperformed his his stats. In 2023, he was right in line with where his inspect expected numbers were, but the last two years, he has way underperformed based on his expected stats. So, it's pretty much just time for things to go the way for Michael Harris. And again, it is spring training and it's a small sample size, but I like what we've seen from Michael Harris. Hey, he's drawn three walks this spring. That's how many he drew over a threemonth span during last season. But it's not just about the walks for Michael Harris. It's about the pitch selection. When he swings at pitches in the zone, he makes a lot of hard contact. He just chases way too many pitches. And again, it's only spring training, but his outside of the zone swing percentage is 31.9%. It was 42.6% last year, 10 points higher, and it's 40% for his career. Again, I don't know that he's going to necessarily cut down his chase rate that much, but still from what we have at least seen in spring training, that is positive. That O swing percentage or chase rate is going to be a key thing to watch for Michael Harris this upcoming season. Now, the next player that I think has a good chance of bouncing back in 2026 is Spencer Strider. Now whether or not you believe he can be a top of the rotation arm again, one thing I do believe is that Spencer Strider is not a four and a half RA guy like he was last year in 2025. He had a 4.45 ERA. He actually had an expected ERA of 4.91. But his XIP was 4.24. So depending on which which metric you look at, you could say he either underperformed or he overperformed. A 1.40 whiff though and a 24.3% strikeout rate. Those are obviously very low marks for Spencer Strider. His career numbers are a 3.74 ERA, a 3.34 XR, and a 3.15 XFIB, a 1.16 whip, and a 33.3% strikeout rate. So, you saw almost a 10% drop in his strikeout rate. And this was basically after missing an entire season, coming back, getting injured again, missing another month, and then coming back again. However, he was pretty good. He wasn't necessarily pre, you know, 2024, 2023 Spencer Strider levels or pre2024 Spencer Strider levels. From May to July last year, he had a 3.72 RA, a 1.22 whip, and a 219 batting average against with a 28.5% strikeout rate. Those are very solid numbers for Spencer Strider and more in line with what we're used to seeing with Spencer Strider. But then in the final two months of the season, he had a 5.66 ERA, a 1.68 whip, a 319 batting average against, and just a 18.3% strikeout rate. So whether it was fatigue after missing most of 2024, or something else, he clearly wasn't right down the stretch. And he did work to correct this, and he finished strong. He had a 2.79 ERA in the month of September. However, the metrics didn't really back up that ERA. He had a 269 batting average against. He had a 1.45 45 whip and a 20 21.1% strikeout rate. So again, looking at the final two months overall of the season, just not quite the Spencer Strider that we're used to seeing. And there is certainly some level of hope in that future in in for Spencer Strider in that he's further removed from surgery. He's more healthy. You hope that that fast VO gets back to where it was before 2024 and hopefully the movement of that fast ball comes back as well. in spring training so far. We've seen the velocity basically back to where it was last year. You know, 94, 96. I think maybe we've seen a couple 97s here or there, but certainly not the 98 99 that we've seen in the past. And the induced vertical break on that pitch has been more around 17 in. Again, not quite where it was back in his heyday of 18 in, but still very, very good as far as, you know, velocity and shape of the fastball. That all seems to be okay. But as I pointed out, it's still not fooling anybody, which gives me some concern for Spencer Strider. But the last start in spring training that he had on Wednesday was very encouraging, especially when it comes to the secondaries for Spencer Strider. And if that fast ball is just not going to be as potent as it was before, it makes those secondaries that much more important. I remain very confident that Strider will be a solid mid-rotation pitcher this year, but I'm still not convinced that he'll get back to being that top of the rotation arm this season. Doesn't mean I don't think he'll ever get back to being that guy, but for this season alone, what I've seen so far in just spring training, I get that hasn't given me enough confidence to say that I believe Spencer Strider can be a top the rotation arm again. Like I said, I think he'll I think he'll be a very good pitcher for the Atlanta Braves this season. And I have very few doubts about that. And so I'm excited to see what he can do. And I think he's going to bounce back. I don't think it's going to be a 4 and a half erra. But if I had to project it right now, just, you know, based on what we saw last year and based on what we've seen so far in spring training, I think that 375 mark that we saw in that good stretch that he had last year for May, July, I think that's a pretty fair projection for Spencer Strider going into this season. And my final bounceback candidate here is maybe going to be a little bit of a surprise, but Riceel Glacius. And this definitely seems like an odd one. You wouldn't normally predict a bounceback year for a 36-year-old reliever who still put up really solid numbers in 2025. You may not realize it because the first half was so bad, but he had a 3.21 ERA last year. He had a whip of just one. He had a strikeout rate of 27.4%. Those are all wildly good numbers for any reliever and that's after the rough start he had to the season. But the erra was the highest that it's been since 2019. And that just more so speaks to how great Pricel Glaciius has been. And when you consider that he did all of that in 2025 without one of his best pitches for most of the season, he essentially abandoned that slider. And so it's easy to see why with the numbers that he had last year without his slider that if he was able to get that back, you could see even better numbers in 2026 or at least the erra be a little bit better. He went from throwing that slider 15 to 20% of the time to last year just 10%. Again, it was it was even less than that in the second half of the season. And that's because the slider got absolutely bombed last year for a slugging percentage of 1038. His slider has always been a plus pitch for him. Only in 2023 and 2025 has has that slider had a negative run value. In 2024, batters hit just 163 and slugged just 279 against his slider. Clearly, there was something off with that pitch last year for Rice Glacius. But if he can get that back, it makes him that much more dangerous. But it was very encouraging to see in the second half of last year that he could still be elite. And yes, he was elite in the second half last year, even without that slider. From July on in 2025, he had a 1.47 erra and a 0.68 whip, a 123 batting average against, and a 30.1% strikeout rate. So, like I said, even with the struggles that he had last year, Risel Glacius was still a really, really good pitcher. But if he's able to get that slider back, you're talking about getting into the, you know, sub 2 erra level again like we've seen him in the past. And I think that's very much a possibility for Risel Aius. I asked many of you or all of you that were on social media, who you think is going to be the player that bounces back for the Atlanta Braves in 2026? Ron Akuna Jr. is king, says Austin Riley. I figure we get a lot of Austin Riley's in here. Uh, Pete State Pride says, "According to our fan base, none of them. They're all terrible baseball players and our season is over." Uh, Brace Paul says, "Most likely Akunia, but also Riley." Uh, I don't know about the Akunia. Look, I love Akunia before I I go any further with this comment. I love Ron Akuna Jr., but he was exceptionally good when he came back last year. And that's not to say that he can't be exceptionally good again, but to say that he's going to I I guess maybe Peach, maybe you mean just or or Braves Paul rather, maybe you mean bounce back and just that he's going to play the whole year, that would definitely be a nice bounce back. But to expect his, you know, full season, what his full season numbers would have been, you know, had he played out last year at the rate that he played once he came back, that would be an MVP level type of of player. So I wouldn't be expecting too much more out of Akunia than what you got last year. But what you got last year was MVP level type of talent. Um Brian McGrath says, "I'll give you four." Aussie, Ronald, Austin, and Strider. So, another one putting Ronald in there. I'm very, very curious why several of you have put Ronald in there. Were you not happy with what he gave you last season or are you just happy or expecting that he's going to give you a full season? Hagen says, "Really if he can stay healthy?" Hostile General says, "Austin Riley's the easy answer." MH2 is the fun answer and one that I love to see. No also says Austin. Aegon says health-wise, rally performance. Harris uh Buern says Strider and Riley. So many more in here saying Riley as well. Devin Smith saying Strider. Jeffrey Brower saying money Mike he's due for a big year. Um Matt Johnson says Jerick Proar final answer. I wouldn't lock that one in just yet, but most of you saying Riley or Strider. A couple of you still saying Ronald. That one confuses me a little bit. So, let me know down in the comments section below what you mean by a breakout or bounceback season rather for Ronald. He was he was great last year when he came back. If you're expecting more than Ronald out of that, I think you're maybe shooting a little too high. Not that he's not capable of it and not that he can't do it, but he was he was really good last season as well. All right, next we'll get into some of the news of the day, including some u surprising options by the Atlanta Braves. Some guys that I thought would be on the opening day roster. We'll talk about that here next. the show. This week's MLB Top 100 Highlight is brought to you by MLB The Show 26. The latest from the beloved video game franchise. Each week, we're highlighting the stars of MLB's top 100 player list, the elite names you'll be controlling, building around, and going head-to-head with in MLB The Show today. Today, we're spotlighting Matt Olsen, ranked number 34 in Lockdown's MLB Top 100. And it doesn't like look like he'll be a diamond card to begin MLB The Show 26, which is a shame, but it also makes it easier to get him on opening night. 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Visit MLB the show/lockedon and use code locked on to unlock a pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. Again, that's MLB the show MLB the.show/lockedon. Use code locked on to unlock a free pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. Uh, you can pre-order it now. Be available on March 17th. Available on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S, and X, and Nintendo Switch, rated E for everyone. Wrap things up here a little bit with some news from the day. You did have the Braves making some roster moves. Got Hayden Harris who optioned back to Gwynette. They reassigned Carlos Carrasco and Alazar Hernandez. and James Karen to minor league camp. They now have 50 players left in big league camp. I was surprised like many of you that uh they sent James Karen and they optioned him back to big league or to minor league camp rather. I had him in my roster 2.0 projection the other day. I had James Karen check on there. I felt like he deserved it and I just didn't see anybody else really that we've seen in spring training that overtook him for that spot. So, that one caught me a little bit off guard. I imagine the thinking that they they're going with here is that with the 13 straight games to begin the season, maybe they want to have two long men in the bullpen. So, maybe you're going to have, you know, Jose Suarez and either Martine Perez or Dylan Dodd. And in that situation, kind of makes sense to go with Dylan Dodd because he has an option left. And so, you could stash Martin Perez in Triple A to keep him stretched out. You could put Dylan Dodd in there in case of emergency as your long man. and you have Jose Suarez for that as well. But that one's a little bit surprising for me and we'll see what else the Braves do the rest of the way. There will be three games on Apple TV in the first half of 2026. So plan accordingly or do what I do and just listen to those games on radio and wait for the highlights. I'm sorry. I love baseball as much and probably more than most, but I'm not subscribing to five different streaming services to watch my favorite team. And I'm certainly not subscribing to Apple TV for three games. I can listen to those on radio, watch the highlights later and when it becomes available on MLB TV. But if you got to have them all, you're going to have to get some other subscriptions as well. Uh, team Italy helped out team USA by pulverizing Mexico. Sorry for Nacho Alvarez there, but he'll be back in camp. Aussie and and Trump back in camp as well now after the Netherlands got eliminated. Vinnie P hit three home runs for Italy in that one. Aaron Nola shoved, which is not great news for Praise fans. Part of my downfall for the Phillies was Aaron Nola continuing to be terrible. Uh but we'll see how that plays out for him and uh my Italian brethren over there. The Dominican Republic took down Ronald's Venezuelan team, but had a very interesting finish to that one. Got really crazy there in the ninth inning. Venezuela tried to mount a pretty big comeback. Crazy atmosphere as well. Look, I'm obviously team USA, but I would not mind if those two teams matched up in the finals. It was a really, really fun atmosphere there. The quarterfinal rounds are set. Friday, you'll have Korea versus the Dominican Republic. And you're going to have Team USA going up against Canada. So, we'll see. Uh, USA got Canada in the Olympics in hockey. We'll see if Canada can get some revenge here in the World Baseball Classic. We'll see if Mark D. Rosa is actually awake and ready to manage on Saturday. The Puerto Rico going up against Italy. And then you got Venezuela and Ronkuna Jr. taking on Japan Saturday night. So, that one will be fun. And then some unfortunate news from the World Baseball Classic. Chicago White Sox catcher Kyle Thiel out four to six weeks with a hamstring strain. Actually looked worse than that in the game. So kind of fortunate that it's just a a hamstring strain. Hopefully he'll be back soon for them. Uh but definitely lucky that wasn't worse. All right, that will do it for this episode of a locked on Braves. Thanks so much for joining us on today's episode. If you haven't already, make sure you subscribe on YouTube, hit that thumbs up button, leave a comment down below. Make sure you leave a fivestar rating on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Thanks so much for making Lockdown Braves your first listen of the day. Make sure you go check out Lockdown MLB next for your second listen of the day and we will talk to you next time.

Atlanta Braves face a pivotal season: Can former stars reclaim their glory and reignite Atlanta’s offense? Jake Mastroianni spotlights key bounce-back candidates like Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, and Raisel Iglesias—analyzing their recent struggles, injury comebacks, and what must change for the Braves to dominate the NL East once again. Riley’s return to MVP-level form, Albies’ power resurgence after hand injuries, and Strider’s quest to anchor the rotation headline the discussion. Plus, Mastroianni breaks down surprising spring training roster decisions and bullpen shifts impacting Opening Day. Fan opinions on Ronald Acuña Jr.’s potential and Matt Olson’s Top 100 ranking add even more intrigue. Will these Braves stars surge back and fuel a postseason run? Tune in for a data-driven preview of Atlanta’s high-stakes 2026 campaign. Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms… 🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-braves/ Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More 🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/mlb/ #Braves #AtlantaBraves #mlb Everydayer Club If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! PlayStation This episode of is brought to you by MLB The Show 26. Visit https://mlbthe.show/lockedon and use code “LOCKEDON” to unlock a pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. Pre-Order now, Available March 17th on PlayStation 5, Xbox, and Nintendo Switch. RATED E FOR EVERYONE. Turbo Tax Intuit TurboTax now has in-person locations nationwide. You can meet face-to-face with a real tax expert, and your documents get uploaded straight to your TurboTax app on the spot. Visit https://TurboTax.com/local to find a store near you and book your appointment today. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel FanDuel is giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential wins with a College Basketball Parlay Profit Boost. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started — Play Your Game. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)