Iran’s Future: Regime Collapse or Regime Change?

The war in Iran is chaotic right now. Whether you support it or not, everyone's wondering how ugly could this turn into. If you look at the doomsday clock when they started in the late 40s by policy experts and scientists, it's at 85 seconds to midnight. It's never been this bad. So, everyone's wondering, could this turn into a possible big nuclear war? And when has a regime change worked? When has a regime collapse work? When we hear about regime changes, is that a good thing? Is that a bad thing? Today I'm going to talk to you about the eight possible consequences of how this war could end from worst case scenario to best case scenario. Okay, so before we get into it, I have one request for you. 51% of you that consume our content on value are not subscribers. If you haven't yet subscribed, do us a favor. Click on that subscribe button. and it allows us to do more things, bring better interviews to you. Having said that, let's get right into it. Regime change versus regime collapse. What's the difference? So, regime changes, you depose existing government of another country and replace it with new leadership. So, for instance, back in the days, Musad was the leader in Iran. He decided to nationalize all the oil and affected all the oil to other countries around the world. BP was in there. They came in and said, "No, no, no. We're not going to be doing this. Let's bring the shop Iran." Muhammad Zasha Palibi shows up in 1953. That's regime change. Iran for the most part in the Middle East becomes peaceful for the next 26 years. But regime collapse is what happened with rapid breakdown of a government where leaders lose the ability to control the state leads to power structures falling apart. In 1979 in Iran that was a regime collapse. Muhammad Razasha Palavi monarchy he's running the country. Boom. replace him with Kumeni, Islamic Revolutionary Guard. That's a complete collapse. So, the first one is a change. The other one is a collapse. Now, let's continue. Regime change. Iraq 2003 regime change. Uh planning, strategic. Who drives it? Foreign governments. Cuz deliberate removal. That's what they did. Hey, let's get this guy out of here. That's a regime change. Regime collapse. Soviet Union. What happened back in the day? Say Mr. Gorbachov, tear down this wall or communism. It was so chaotic. Everybody was worried about communism being accepted by everybody. No, no, no. We cannot we cannot have this communism thing be a massive thing that people accept. We got to get rid of this. They did. Iran revolution. We talked about the planning. Super chaotic. So if we're going through the collapse, super chaotic citizens, economy, military, I mean military defection hasn't happened to Iran fully yet. The citizens, yes, but military turning against the government saying, "Listen, I can't support you anymore." And then obviously the internal breakdown. That's Iran by the way with Venezuela. What just happened with Venezuela? Maduro. It's somewhat isish a regime change. Even though his VP is still there, it is an ish regime change. But let's continue. When you look at this regime change methods, number one is direct military action. Number two, covert operations, secretly funding like not necessarily a proxy, but secretly funding, training or inciting opposition in country and in course of diplomacy, sanctions, embargos rarely works but we use that card every once in a while. Why does US do regime change one containment domino theory example cold war enemy communism communism if it would have spread and that ideology that was spreading would have won it would have been bad for everybody well you know we need to kind of go through the system they have to put a stop to it I believe that was a right move number two protecting economic interests ex Panama 1989 number three preemptive strikes Bush doctrine preventing terrorism example the great war you know you don't understand they have weapons of mass destruction. We have weapons of mass destruction. That that is something that a lot of military guys that want to fight over. They lost their buddies like, "Wait a minute. You will never get me on this ever again." Which makes sense. And then number four, liberal interventionalism. Stop human rights violation. It's not fair what you're doing to people. And that's a whole different approach. Now, methods. Number one, course of actions. Using CIA for psychological warfare, which by the way, it's happening right now in a big way. funding opposition groups, you know, orchestrating military coups. Iran 53, Chile 73 with Pinocha. That's that. Number two, conventional warfare, direct invasion, boots on the ground, Panama, Iraq. We're trying to avoid that with Iran. Although we've had multiple leaders on Trump's administration that have said we have to keep all the options out there. We may need to use it. We don't know yet, right? But he doesn't want to use it. You've heard that. Okay. Number three, proxy warfare. Army training local insurgent groups to destabilize the government. Nicaragua in 1980s. And some of the people right now are saying, "Well, wait a minute. The Kurds, what they're doing, isn't that kind of what you're doing? Are we giving them weapons?" And they said, "Listen, we're not giving them weapons. Israel may, but we're not giving them weapons." So, some of that. And then number four is economic coercion, right? Sanctions, trade embargos intended to incite domestic unrest, which we have done to Iran for a long time. But this alone doesn't fully work all the time for regime change. So question becomes, has it ever worked? How often does it fail? Because you'll hear people saying it never works. It always fails. Let's look at this. Five examples of success, five examples of failure. And by the way, success doesn't mean 100% it worked. It means whether there was a success shortterm, we were able to get rid of this regime. So that's a success. Whether it lasts long-term 10, 20, 30 years, that's a different definition of success. It all depends on how we measure success. So for example, examples of success. Number one, operation Ajax. This was Mosad. He came in all the major oil companies like wait a minute, this guy wants to nationalize. He doesn't want to do business. We can't have a guy like this. Let's bring Gris Palab. He comes in. He stays for 26 years. And the rest is history. And during that time when that was going on, of course, CIA was involved. MI6 was involved. A lot of people were involved. Guatemala 1954, Operation PB Success. Chile 1973, Granada 1983, operation urgent fury, urgent fury, not epic fury, and then five, Panama 1989, operation just cause uh that they went through. These are successes at the time, failures. Cuba 61, Bay of Pigs, what happened? Cuba is still a communistic, which by the way, if this goes through, you know what's going to happen with Cuba? Let's just say they succeeded with Iran and they did with Venezuela. They're just going to go saying, "Hey, uh, Cuba." Yeah. All right. Come on, guys. Let move out the way. You're going to be like Puerto Rico and let's allow us to bring some hotels and kind of fix this place and tourism and all this stuff. Everyone's going to win. It's okay. Communism failed. No one's using it anymore. You no longer have ch Russia's backing. Soviet Union is not there to back you. They haven't been there for a while. What the hell are we doing? Let's move on. You start creating business and that could happen anytime. Then we got Vietnam 55 to 75. Another failure. Afghanistan probably the biggest failure. And then you got Iraq. Some people call Iraq the biggest failure but Afghanistan's on that list as well. And in Libya, we know how that one ended as well. So now, and so by the way, when we're looking at the whole Iran regime change, regime collapse, there's one thing I want you to pay attention to. So 1953, Operation Ajax, you know who was president? A Republican president, Eisenhower. Interesting. All right. So they came in, they're like, "No, we're not going communism. We're going to go pro capitalism." And then you have the 1979 revolution with the great blowback. President Carter, Democrat, he said he was going to help. He did not. What happened? regime collapse, okay, without like we almost kind of said, "No, we're gonna help you. No, we have your back. Don't worry about it. It's gonna be great." Boom. We did nothing. IRGC came in shed show since 1979 because of Carter. And in 2026, Operation Epic Fury, Republican Trump. So, if you notice, one side is like, well, we'll kind of work with you. We'll kind of, you know, we'll do this and we'll be No, you know, Kmeni was more like a Gandhi. He's going to come and make you run. You don't want somebody like a paladi who is all about wealth and money and all this stuff. It's the language. That's the propaganda part that works. So now, while you're watching everybody today debate this topic, whether you know it or not, everyone falls in one of these handful of camps that's out there. Let me explain to what this camp is. First camp is the Israel first hawks. I don't care what happens. We have to have Israel's back. No matter what, we got to protect. If they're doing this, we got to go to That's the Israel Hawks. Number two is the Trump loyalist. Hey, I think this is the right guy. I voted for this guy. I support this guy. I think he's doing the right thing. I support his decision and I'm excited about what's going to be happening. I'm a little bit uncertain. I'm a little worried, but I'm supporting him. Number three is the establishment media. You know, the main Fox, CNN, MSNBC, they're kind of like, well, Kame is a bad guy. Well, he kind of had to go, but Mark Kelly, well, I don't I'm glad he was taken out, but you know, they're supportive, but they're still kind of like, what happened to the congressional? They need to go through Congress. A little bit of that. Then you have the America first. I can't believe you're doing this. This is crazy. Israel owns us. You know, it's a puppet. You know, BB's running everything. I'm going I'm voting Democrat moving forward. I'm going to And that's the America first. Some of the people there that are supporting that. And then you're going to have a radical left, the lunatics. You know how they are. They're complete. There's nothing he can do right. That's the radical left. And on the Iran side, you have one side that's supporting this. It's the majority. 80 plus percent of Iranians are sick and tired of having a country being ran by a supreme leader. They're done with that judgment. Leave me alone. Let me live my life. It's a different world we're living in today with social media where you can no longer hide. And no matter how many times you're trying to cancel the internet so we can't see what's going on with the world. We're sick of the way you've brainwashed us and manipulated our parents for decades. It's done. Get out the way. Then the small percentage that says, "I don't know. I don't know if I want, you know, I don't know if I want to get to this one. I don't know about And that's the part. Those are the camps. You pick and choose which one you're in and what you decide to be part of. But those are the six camps that we have right now. Now, let's cover this here. Okay? And this this one here got very big. And it is what could happen. Eight different scenarios of what could happen in Iran from worst case to best case. What's the worst case? Samson option total nuclear destruction. first person, you know, drops it and then from there, you know what? Let me just take every if you're gonna kill me, I'm killing everybody with me when I'm going down, right? That's what I'm doing. Number two, dark successor. So, yes, we took out Kate. Yes, we took out 50 plus leaders. Yes, we took out all these different sides, but the next guy that comes is even worse than the existing guy that they have. Maybe it's not a nuclear war, but they stay. But even a worse radical leader takes over Iran. Number three is the serification of Iran. Okay, this is fractured state. They're kind of trying to figure it out and what are we going to do? It kind of stays chaotic for a while and everyone's kind of trying to figure out and we're still kind of funding, trying to help out, but it can't stand alone on its own. Number four is the stalemate, status quo. US goes to war uh for four to five weeks. We eventually you run out of ammo. We run out of we run out of all these, you know, interceptors and we're like, you know what, guys? Let's just kind of finish it up. IRGC stays in power. You know, everything stays there. But stalemate, nothing takes place. Number five, a military uh uh leader takes over. So, it's now ran by the military. Number six is the Persian Spring, citizen uprising, new government, kind of like what happened in 1979 with the revolution against the Shaw. But the people come in, they're like, "No, no, we're done with this. We got to do something about it." Seven is the Marshall Plan, similar to what we did with Europe. We decide to say, "All right, the world, let's start investing into Iran. We're going to do this and we're going to fix this thing. economic recovery, heavy outside investments, and you know, just like we did with Europe, and by the way, Europe, they ended up spending around $130 billion in today's money to $150 billion. But also, you know how much money we spend in Africa with the Marshall Plan? You know, we've had nearly 50 plus or so Marshall plans in Africa. You know how much money we've spent in Africa on Marshall Plan since 1960ish? What do you think the number is? 200 billion, 300 billion. Why don't you fact check this? It's somewhere around $5 trillion. We've invested to try to fix Africa. That hasn't worked. So that but it worked in Europe. It's a heavy investment. The world's going to want to be a part of it. And it could happen, but it didn't definitely didn't happen in Africa when that was going on. So Marshall Plan could be the last one. Seventh one. And last but not least is the great bargain. Iran becomes cultural paradise. You go there. Frank Sinatra music playing in the background. Everyone's happy. Everyone's dancing. Everyone's going to club Kabaron. Everyone's, you know, by Caspian Sea. Oh my god, this is great. Business is flooding. It's just going to be heaven on earth. Next, you know, Christmas, you're going to say, "Honey, let's not go to Hawaii. Let's not go to Bahamas. Let's go to Tehran, Iran. It's going to be awesome. It's like the closest thing to heaven." You obviously realize the likelihood of this happening is pretty slim. Okay? If it happens, I'll be the first one celebrating. You know what else is pretty slim? Here's the other thing that's pretty slim. This guy here. Both of these are slim. We're going to end up somewhere around here. I am hopeful. I am rooting for this thing to get done properly. I think the sequencing on the way they did it, it's fascinating to me. If this is actually what they did, it's brilliant. So, you mean to tell me you know your number one enemy is China and you know China signed a 25 year or$400 billion deal with Iran? You know Russia is not negotiating with you to help you get the peace done with Ukraine because you said on day one I will finish the war with Ukraine and Russia and it hasn't happened yet. And you know, Russia got the plans on how to build the Shahid drones that Iran's building for only $20,000. And now they're building their own drone. So they're like, "Hey, we kind of need Iran to be good." And so you mean to tell me US first goes and gets Venezuela first? So if China, 55% of the oil they rely on comes from Venezuela and the other 85% whatever that they get, they get from the straight of Hormuz comes from Iran. And you mean to tell me those two all of a sudden are under control of US? So Venezuela's controlling K and then you go and make the Supreme Court of Panama to get rid of CK Hutchinson. So China doesn't have any control in Panama Canal. If they retaliate and then you go to Iran and in the middle of this thing that's taking place, they're down missiles attacking by 86% according to Wall Street Journal. You've taken out all these different places. Iran royally screwed up. Attack 10 other Gulf States making enemies that are their neighbors. Forcing your neighbors to become friends of Israel. What? Forcing these neighbors to all of a sudden say we're siding with Israel over Iran. Double dumb. But if this is actually what happened, this may go down in the history books as one of the greatest case studies negotiation by raising the temperature so high on China and Russia and saying, "Hey, you better not get involved. I'm just telling you right now. I'll do a deal with you because now you need oil from us or you need oil from Venezuela or you need oil from Iran that's going through us. You better make a deal with us and don't get involved. Hey Russia, you too. Don't get involved. Maybe we broker a deal. Now again, that that's a if they're doing that, you got to give them credit, which I know the media won't, but if that's what they're doing, that's why we voted this person in, President Donald Trump, and I'm rooting for him to succeed. But the reality of it is this is a lot nastier than anybody can tell you behind closed doors. I'm hopeful. I'm optimistic. I'm naturally coming from a place of future looks bright. And I actually voted for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to be gone. It was one of the questions I asked President Trump in the interview when he was here with me and I said, "What plans will you use?" He says, "I don't know. Everything is different. As a strategist, we're always going to be very fluid." So, having said that, two things. If you want the notes from what we covered today, click on the link below or the QR code here. Go to my next circle. We're going to give you the noc for free. Number two, I made a video 7 years ago titled history of US Iran conflict. If you've never seen this, this is 2019. I was bald back then. I would shave zero and one. So, you may want to go check this clip out. A lot of people started asking me about Iran back in the days and I finally made a clip. Back in the days, I used to draw with paint with color. So, you'll see what the format is, but that's an old school video if you haven't seen it. And to the 51% of you, if you haven't yet, click that subscribe button. Take care everybody. God bless. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

Patrick Bet-David breaks down the difference between regime change and regime collapse, the six political camps reacting to the war, and the 8 possible scenarios for how the Iran conflict could end. ------ ⭕️ JOIN THE PBD ENTREPRENEUR CIRCLE: https://bit.ly/4ij2KVX 🇺🇸 VT USA COLLECTION: https://bit.ly/3NgNIET ♟️ SALES LEADERSHIP SUMMIT 2026: https://bit.ly/45Evtj4 Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! SUBSCRIBE TO: @VALUETAINMENT @ValuetainmentComedy @HerTakePod ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.