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Bloomberg Podcasts · 270.9K views · 2.6K likes
Analysis Summary
Moral framing
Presenting a complex issue with genuine tradeoffs as a simple choice between right and wrong. Once something is framed as a moral issue, compromise feels like complicity and disagreement feels immoral rather than reasonable.
Haidt's Moral Foundations Theory; Lakoff's framing research (2004)
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- This video provides a clear explanation of how 'gating' works in private credit and why liquidity mismatches occur in non-traded business development companies.
Be Aware
Cautionary elements
- The 'read the prospectus' mantra serves as a defensive shield for asset managers, implying that any investor loss is a personal failure of reading comprehension rather than a result of aggressive product marketing.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
Knowing about these techniques makes them visible, not powerless. The ones that work best on you are the ones that match beliefs you already hold.
This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
Related content covering similar topics.
Transcript
So it's not clear sort of where to begin. We actually had to address some of the stories we wanted to mention because it would have just taken too much time to update everybody on everything happening just in the last 24 hours with concerns around private credit. What's the main concern to you? Well, private credit is experiencing its roach motel moment in terms of retail getting spooked. Retail is really worried. Retail's trying to take out more money than you're allowed to take out. But I would say also look at the prospectus. You know, the BlackRock prospectus for the fund is being redeemed right now. It says on page one 5%, and it's up to them whether they even do that. So you should read the paperwork. The problem with credit in a lot of markets over the last five years or so of easy money is people just haven't been doing that work. So do people ever do that work? Well, think page one. But yeah, but shame on you. I mean, this is one of the things that we always talk about when we talk about private credit. And there's I've had terminal users like do people understand what private credit, how this market works? That's an understanding. It's not liquid, right? It's not liquid. These are long term investments in direct loans, which, you know, you sign a contract, you've agreed to lend the company money for, say, five years, and you get it back after five years plus a premium. Plus, I'll tell you, you know, investment grade bonds right now, 5%. I'm going to offer you something else for three times that. Right. What's what? What do you have to do for me to get that extra return? Repays one of the prospectus. You're going to have to lock your money up and there will be a penalty. And you probably won't get your money back when you want it. James, there's locking your money up, and then there's problems. So how do you distinguish between what we are seeing? Is this that it's just not the right market environment yet for private credit. And so it's going to maybe take longer for either the exits, for the returns. And so investors, you got to understand that or is there problems somewhere within the lending and the whole process? Like, how do we and that may be you know, people are investing are these firms are actually investing in things that aren't so great and that transparency isn't truly there for investors. There's certainly problems on the tech the software side, which we are now starting to see. A lot of these loans were made five years ago when rates were zero and the money was flowing and people weren't asking too many questions and leverage was going on pretty high. Now those things are coming up for refinancing those companies in a much more difficult situation. Some of them may be completely replaced by AI, so you're not gonna get your money back. We did see Black write off the loan, $25 million in a kind of Amazon adjacent space. You know, that's $25 million for a very large fund. The point we made yesterday, not a lot of money for a company like BlackRock, but for, you know, it sounds still $25 million, but it's $5 million. But it's BlackRock and it's going to zero, the world's largest asset manager. Like there's you know, to be fair, you put firms in a certain category and we do that rightfully so. And so you're like, well, if they missed it or does every great investor, Warren Buffett would probably say, I've missed some things, right? Like, how do you how do you assess that? I mean, there's a lot of pick your manager, get the right manager. Don't be a terrorist. You know, all these things you someone specialize. But you're right, when it's BlackRock losing money, then you start to be concerned. But, you know, again, I'd point to the returns. The returns expectations were very high, you know, some sometimes as high as 20%. So, you know, you've got to assume a bit of a loss there along the way. You're going to take some risk. So I think, you know, the whole outcome, the upshot for me would be, you know, on the one hand, Curb Your Enthusiasm about private credit returns, they're not going to be 20%, they may be closer to, you know, less than ten. On the other hand, Curb Your Enthusiasm about the growth of this market because it all relies on retail money piling in and getting you to 40 trillion from 2 trillion currently. I just don't think that's going to happen. Well, to that point, shares of Blue Owl are down more than 60% from the highs just about a year ago on January 24th, 2025. James, I think the question that people have and this is literally the $2 trillion question is about contagion and about to what extent, you know, since you and I you we last spoke to you two weeks ago, since you were last on our program, have fears about contagion, this spreading to other asset classes, this spreading to big banks. Has that shifted? We're seeing more definitely shorts on the on the BDCs. We're seeing shorts on the credit market as a whole in terms of the side effects, which is a serious index, which is a liquid way to to take a position if you want to. We're seeing outflows from some of the ETFs that are related. You know, so there is there is a fear that that starts to feed on itself, that when you start getting big redemptions and you have to sell not necessarily the bad stuff, but the good stuff to get liquidity and that, you know, results in just a bit of a downward spiral. You know, I just want to go to BDC. It's certainly something we've talked about on your Bloomberg for years, the business development companies. Where are they when it comes to the private credit market? Like how much of private credit are BDCs is a big proportion of it, but you know, they are the only. The bull's side of it, you know, that's why we look at them, because they are transparency. There is a bit of transparency there and it's a growing part of the market. Maybe that growth starts to slow because of what we're seeing right now. But it is a big you know, if you wanted to get into private credit, that is a you know, a decent channel to do it. How do you suss out if whether or not this is going to be I mean, a lot of financial crises are credit based. So this is why it's got everybody, you know, the hairs on their neck kind of standing up. So how do you guys suss it out or like, what? What are you watching as it feels like every day? There are several stories. I mean, to me, it's an orderly selloff. It's a repricing of a market that got very, very expensive. Credit has been overpriced for a long time, and now it's slightly cheaper. But every time it gets cheaper, people buy into it, people buy that dip. They get very well rewarded for doing that. So there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that once, you know, 7% yield in a junk bond because, you know, that's a good coupon to get, especially if rates continue to go down. We just don't know at this point. Right. But, you know, rates go up. Will there be more more pressure points, more stress? It will certainly stress out the weak borrowers with a lot of debt coming due because they can't cover those bills. On the other side, it may make private credit even more attractive because that is a floating rate asset. So there's going to be a push to floating, you know, so there are lots of, I think, ramifications, lots of we don't know yet. Yeah. On well, sorry, we just have 20 seconds left. But I wonder at the end of the day, if if when this when this passes, if it passes, if sort of a stronger product emerges on the other side, that would be the hope that it grows up and people actually read as a maturing moment. People actually read page one of the prospectus. You say that so many times, but I guess we got to read the fine print as well to expand the market, right? Read the read the small print, know what you're doing and why you're getting paid more to do it.
Video description
BlackRock Inc. curbed withdrawals from one of its biggest private credit funds after client requests for redemptions spiked, the latest sign of investor anxiety about the $1.8 trillion private credit industry. The firm’s $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, one of the largest non-traded business development companies, said in a statement Friday that shareholders requested 9.3% of their shares, but management decided to cap the repurchases at 5%. While the total value of shares would have been about $1.2 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations, investors will get back about $620 million that the fund held at year-end. It’s the clearest instance of gating withdrawals among major private credit funds since late last year, when investors grew increasingly skittish about the asset class after high-profile collapses raised concerns about lending standards. Many firms had thus far opted to meet the higher redemption requests or looked to repay investors by other means. James Crombie, Bloomberg News Senior Editor for Credit, joins Bloomberg Businesweek Daily to discuss. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. -------- Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube Weekdays 7am-6pm ET WATCH HERE: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF Follow us on X: https://twitter.com/BloombergRadio Subscribe to our Podcasts: Bloomberg Daybreak: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Bloomberg Surveillance: http://bit.ly/3OPtReI Bloomberg Intelligence: http://bit.ly/3YrBfOi Balance of Power: http://bit.ly/3OO8eLC Bloomberg Businessweek: http://bit.ly/3IPl60i Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app: Apple CarPlay: https://apple.co/486mghI Android Auto: https://bit.ly/49benZy Visit our YouTube channels: Bloomberg Podcasts: https://www.youtube.com/bloombergpodcasts Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake