Steve Kornacki: Democrats hold midterm edge in new NBC News poll

Welcome back. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Cornaki is here to break down the results of our latest NBC News poll. Steve, some big takeaways here. >> Absolutely, Kristen. I mean, let's start with the headline. Where does Donald Trump stand heading into this midterm year here, a 44% approval rating for the president. you know, not far off where he was when we last checked in. But I think for Trump here in his first term, that 2018 midterm, this is almost exactly where he was at that point, too. Of course, there was a 40 seat Democratic landslide that year. Democrats took back the House. Also, what is driving the low number for Trump? It continues to be the economy. Look at this. Kristen asking folks, do you approve of how the president has handled inflation, cost of living specifically? 36% approved, 62 disapproved. That's down. A year ago, it was 4255. It's twice as bad now for him. >> Steve, that's a big dip on a critical issue for this midterm election. >> Absolutely, Kristen. Voters continue to say this one is of of pretty central importance to them. And then also, are they feeling it? You know, have Trump's policies helped or hurt almost 50%. They're saying they have hurt a majority of independents saying the same thing. We checked in the president on some other issues here. Immigration now 44% approval. But this is interesting. We also asked not immigration, we asked border security. And when you put it that way, it is different. 53% majority approve of the president there. Almost one in 10 voters have this split opinion. Disapprove immigration, approve on border security. And I think this spills over to broader attitudes about immigration, these high-profile incidents. Minnesota, you know, look at this ICE, a positive rating of only 38% for ICE. Does that mean the country is getting more dovish on immigration? Not necessarily. Because when you ask about sanctuary cities, look at that. 33 43. Also very negative there. So complicated attitudes I think on immigration. How about the state of the two parties heading into the midterm, the generic ballot? It's a six-point advantage here for Democrats. It's a sizable lead for them. Although we mentioned 2018, Trump's first term at this point it was 10 points for Democrats. So it is a little bit less. And I think what's driving the Democratic advantage now really is heavily this. It's the interest of their own base. We ask folks if they have the highest level of interest in these elections. Threearters of Democrats are saying they do barely 60% of Republicans are. And again, that is a difference, Kristen, when you go back to that first Trump midterm. The gap wasn't as pronounced as it is right now. This though as well, the image of the parties getting outside the base here. What all voters think? Look at this. Republicans are not that popular. Democrats though even more unpopular than Republicans. Well, this is so significant because even though they have an enthusiasm advantage, they clearly have an image issue. >> That's it. And that gets to the question too then. How do voters look at these two parties when it comes to the major issues here? So, Democrats do have this advantage. When you ask about threats to democracy, that's an 11point advantage for Democrats there. Democratic voters say that's their top issue. Republican voters say that border security, immigration more important to them. Big Republican advantages. But Kristen, this will be it. It's the economy. It's a tie between the parties. Republicans have had the advantage on this issue for nearly a decade. Now it's wiped away. Question going forward, did Democrats actually open an advantage on the economy? That could be key to them if they are going to have a big midterm. >> Still the top issue. Steve Cornaki, thank you so much for being here. >> We thank you for watching and remember, stay updated on breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or watch live on our YouTube channel.

NBC News Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press to break down a new NBC News poll showing voters giving Trump higher marks on border security but disapproving of his handling of several other key issues.