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Analysis Summary
Normalization Of Escalation
This technique was detected by AI but doesn't yet map to our curated glossary. We're tracking its usage patterns.
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- This video provides a concise summary of the specific political and military developments occurring on March 6, including the appointment of Markwayne Mullin and the status of DHS funding.
Be Aware
Cautionary elements
- The use of 'clinical detachment' when discussing a potential ground invasion of Iran, which frames a massive geopolitical shift as a mere matter of 'weeks' and 'logistics'.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
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This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
Transcript
Good to have you with us on this Friday. I'm Joe Frier >> and I'm Savannah Sers. Thank you very much for being with us. We're going to begin our show with a shakeup in President Trump's cabinet. On Thursday, the president announced the firing of Homeland Security Secretary Christy Gnome, who's been leading his immigration crackdown. It is the first major firing of his second term in office, and it comes just days after Gnome was on the hot seat in two difficult congressional hearings. An administration official told NBC News the decision was based on a culmination of quote many unfortunate leadership failures. >> Gnome's departure caps off a tumultuous time as she became one of the faces of the president's highly controversial mass deportation agenda. It's a program that sparked fierce public backlash, especially after the fatal shootings of two protesters in Minneapolis by federal agents. This morning, we're learning more about why the president decided to fire Gnome, what's next for her, and who is set to replace her. Here to talk about all this, NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Julie Circin. Julie, good morning. We know NBC News spoke on the phone with the president yesterday about this very topic. What are some of the reasons he's giving as to why he fired Nome? >> Yeah, good morning, guys. First of all, President Trump told our Garrett Hake that Christy Gnome is quote a fine person who did a good job. He denied our earlier reporting in which we had many sources tell us that essentially there was a final straw for the president Gnome's performance at her dual hearings this week. He said that wasn't the case, but he did uh note one of the things that came up in these hearings, an ad campaign that Gnome launched. It was $220 million. It was a contract that she gave out that came under questioning from a Republican senator, the president telling Garrett, quote, "I wasn't thrilled with it. I spent less money than that to become president. I didn't know about it. Remember this campaign encouraged immigrants to self-depreport. But a major shakeup, the first cabinet secretary, as you said, that the president had fired and now uh appointed a new one. It looks like Gnome won't be going too far. She's being moved to a newly created role. It's called special envoy for the Shield of Americas. What do we know about what that role is? And tell us what Gnome said about all this. >> Yeah, this is a brand new role. Well, look, the president does not like to waste his political capital on people that he later then fires. We know he prefers to shift them into softer landing pads, if you will. And so, uh, this role, according to the White House, they say, reflects the president's effort to shift the US national security strategy toward the Western Hemisphere in a post on X. Christine Nome says she looks forward to assuming this role and working with Pete Hexth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to try and focus on dismantling the cartel. She said a gnome is expected to attend an event that the president is attending on Saturday, meeting with Latin American countries. There are also rumors and still speculation that no may be eyeing a Senate seat, potentially one to watch there. The filing deadline in South Dakota, guys, not up until the end of this month. >> Julie, as you've been covering, Democrats are holding up funding for the Department of Homeland Security. It's been three weeks since that funding shutdown. Could this firing mean that lawmakers will be inclined to free up the money or are there still more issues that Democrats want addressed? >> That was the key question I was asking Democrats guys yesterday and I asked Leader Schumer about this who told me essentially this is a matter of policy not personnel and he's not convinced that Senator Mark Wayne will do a different job at the department. Take a listen to what he said. >> Has fired Christy Noam. good riddance. But the problems at this agency, ICE, transcend any any one person. The rot is deep. They the president has to end the violence and reign in ICE. This is a this is a problem of policy, not personnel. >> You heard him say there, the rot is deep. Democrats are going to need assurances from Mullen, who told me after, by the way, that he wants to earn his votes. He's willing to sit down with Democrats. Remember, some Republicans also took issue with those intense immigration enforcement operations. They want to see changes, too. But so far, guys, uh, no path ahead as to when the lights will turn back on at DHS. Certainly, Gnome's ouster will help, but it won't solve the problem. >> Julie, you mentioned Oklahoma Senator Markwin Mullen. This is Trump's pick to replace Gnome. Tell us more about him and what are his prospects for getting Senate approval. >> He's fairly new to the Senate, but he has spent a lot of time in the House, several years in the Senate. He's in his first term. He's from Oklahoma. Uh he has a lot of friends across the aisle and Republican partners as well. I'll just give you a little peak behind the curtain. Yesterday morning when we were reporting on this, I asked Senator Tom Tillis who should replace Christy Gnome and he mentioned Mark Wayne Mullen. This is somebody who already has commitment from at least one Senate Democrat who texted him, John Betterman, that he will confirm him for this job. He has leadership experience. He's been the go-between between Capitol Hill and the White House. He's very close to the president. I talked to him extensively yesterday and he said he's looking forward uh to taking on this job. He praised Christ, but he did say there are areas that they could do a better job in, specifically immigration enforcement. Uh but guys, he basically left his lunch on his plate when he ran out and got the call from the president. He told me he was not expecting it to come yesterday and hadn't even talked to his wife yet when we were asking him about it. >> All right, Julie Cirin kicking us off this hour. Thank you so much. Well, the Iran war is expanding across the Middle East this morning. As the US and Israel continue to bombard, excuse me, Thran, Iran's retaliatory strikes now stretch across the region. As the conflict widens, European governments have begun deploying military assets to the Middle East. >> Now, Iran is vowing revenge for that deadly US strike on an Iranian submarine in the Indian Ocean. In an interview with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Yamis, Iran's foreign minister said that his country rejected negotiations with the US and is preparing for a possible invasion by US forces. President Trump has not ruled out boots on the ground in Iran. Are are you afraid of a US invasion in your country? >> No, we are waiting for them. >> You you are waiting for the US military to invade the ground troops? >> Yes. because [clears throat] we are confident that we can confront them and that would be a big disaster for them. >> So you're saying that that Iran is ready and willing to take on the US military if there were to be ground troops. >> Well, we were ready for this war uh even more than the previous war. So you can see uh you know the quality of our missiles how much they are upgraded after the last war because we learned lots of lessons and we are prepared for any other eventuality even you know a ground invasion. So our our soldiers are prepared for any scenario. I when I said that we we are waiting for them it didn't mean that we are waiting for for continuation of the war. know, but we have prepared ourselves to to confront with any scenario, with any eventuality, any possibility, and we know that we can handle that. >> For more on this, let's bring in NBC News reporter Matt Bodner and NBC News international correspondent Matt Bradley. He is near the Israel Lebanon border with the very latest. Good morning to both of you. And Matt Bodner, I will begin with you. Yesterday, Trump administration officials were having discussions with Kurdish leaders in Iraq and Iran about potentially arming groups opposed to the regime. That's according to three people uh with knowledge of these discussions and an Iraqi Kurdish official. Well, now the Turkish government is denying those plans. What more can you tell us? >> Thanks, Savannah. Yeah, well, we've been seeing those two uh uh this reporting from NBC that the White House is in discussion with these Kurdish leaders uh there in northern Iraq and northwestern Iran. Uh and the question is about potentially arming opposition groups to fight against the regime. Uh that is you said according to people uh with knowledge of those discussions. Separately, we've seen Axios reporting uh that several Kurdish Iranian factions are working with the CIA in MSAD. Also to prepare for a possible offensive and it is worth noting that in the days before the launch of this operation, Epic Fury, five Kurdish Iranian groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan did announce a new coalition being formed against Thrron. Now, that all said, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq said in in a statement uh not long ago, denying reports that it is planning to arm Kurdish opposition groups before sending them into Iran. So, no one at this point really knows what to expect. Uh but it is reasonable to sort of anticipate a move like a Kurdish offensive may come before the United States would would seriously consider a direct ground invasion. But it's not clear that the US is even all that close to being able uh to mount such an operation itself. We've of course in recent days heard a lot from Hexath and other leaders making a lot of noise about air superiority, but the United States still has a way to go before they can claim total air superiority over all of Iran. If you kind of look at the talking points, the way they're constructed, the way they're talking about it, they'll say things like dominance over the sky that we fly over. Uh so it still could take weeks before the United States could reasonably claim total control over all of Iran. But even then, whether or not that's necessary for a potential ground invasion is another question. The United States does control some areas of the country. So, we're just gonna have to see where this all goes. >> Matt B, let's talk about what happened here in Washington yesterday. The Republican le house rejected a Democratic le effort to try and limit President Trump's war powers. So, what does that mean for this conflict as it moves forward? Does it essentially mean that the president has authority to put boots on the ground if he wishes? 30 seconds. >> So, I think there's still a bit of a question hanging over that. We're seeing a bit of a fight in Washington over uh specifically what what powers are granted, how they're used. So, the resolution that was put forward would have essentially halted the operation until Congress could deliberate on it. The vote, I think it's important to note, was 212 in favor against uh and 219 against. So, it was close. Congressional Democrats, they were pushing for this resolution uh essentially arguing that the president has embarked on an illegal war with no clear and consistent objectives. House Speaker Mike Johnson, he lobbied against the resolution, saying that it would have been a dis a serious misstep. And he said, quote, "We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war. This is a limited operation." Uh, in this talking point, I do have to say, echo statements made by the Russian leadership following its 2012 invasion of Ukraine that basically allowed the Kremen to sidestep domestic criticisms and concerns by by downplaying the scale of the undertaking. >> Matt Bradley, let's bring you in here. You are in Israel near the Lebanese border, essentially another front of this war as Israeli defense forces and Hezbollah trade blows. What's the latest on the ground? >> He's a very nice guy. >> Do you want to do better? There were some very mild interceptions of what look like projectiles over my left shoulder here and over my right shoulder here. We're so close we can hear what sounds like small arms fire. So that sounds like we're very close. Driving up here, we passed dozens and dozens of parked tanks and armored vehicles belonging to the Israeli military. All of it look like they're mustering, getting ready to cross this border for an offensive that has really already begun. and it began days ago when Hezbollah decided to throw in their lot with the Iranians and fire on northern Israel where I am now. Now, they said they were doing this out of vengeance for the killing of Ali Kam, the Ayatollah in Iran. They've also said they're doing this because the Israelis have continued to maintain at least five positions on hilltops in southern Lebanon. Those positions remain as the Israelis have advanced further and launched many, many strikes into Lebanon. Now, we've been seeing, according to the Israelis, they're targeting particularly over the past day, Beirut, Lebanon's capital, particularly those Shiite and Hezbollah strongholds around that city, the neighborhood of Daha where we've been before, and some of the other areas around that, which is again are Shiite, Muslim Hezbollah strongholds. They've also said that they struck in just the past 24 hours. targets in the eastern BKA valley and of course southern Lebanon which is very much where uh the Israelis have been concentrating. So we're seeing what looks like an expanding operation here in southern Lebanon. As in Israel, Iran's counterattacks seem to be kind of petering off. It's been a couple of days since we've seen any fatalities from any Iranian ballistic missile strikes or drone strikes. even as the Iranians say that they're continuing to attack Israel. We hear the sirens all the time in Tel Aviv, but we're not actually hearing about injuries and deaths. So, uh it looks like as we're seeing the situation with Iran as far as Israel is concerned on the home front kind of quieting a bit, the situation here is getting a whole lot louder, guys. >> So, Matt Bradley, with that in mind, we're nearly one week in now. We know thousands of Americans are still stuck in the Middle East. We spoke to someone yesterday who's in a hotel in Qatar. can hear explosions pretty much all day long. You mentioned you've been hearing those sirens. You've had to take shelter while on the air with us this week. What are the updates on the efforts to try and just get US citizens out of the region safely? Well, I can tell you that here in Israel, for one thing, we have to remember not everybody wants to leave. A lot of the Americans here in Israel feel safe here. Why? Well, they have an advanced warning system. They are uh basically have you know bomb shelters just about everywhere not just in people's homes and hotels but also along the streets. So you really are quite safe in Tel Aviv. And I mentioned those casualty numbers have badly diminished. It is a pain to get out of Israel but there are flights that are now landing in Israel bringing Israelis home. And according to the government, Bengurian International Airport should start to open for outgoing flights starting this Sunday. There are probably going to be a lot of folks who are going to say, "I can endure this for another two days. I'll take a flight out on Sunday." However, there are people who I've spoken to who are making time-consuming and expensive diversions. Spoke with a bunch of people who were boarding a bus yesterday in central Tel Aviv. They were taking a 5-hour trip all the way down to Egypt Sinai Peninsula. They're going to cross into Egypt and fly out of regional airports in Egypt in the hopes of eventually making it back to the States. A lot of these people I spoke with said it went well. Some of them said they were frustrated and there were snags. The fact is here in Israel, folks are getting out. >> Matt Bodner, before we let you both go, let's talk about the future of leadership in Iran. President Trump saying yesterday that he should be involved in deciding who that should be. Um, do we know who the leading candidates are in terms of the Ayatollah successor with this assembly of experts, where that process stands to choose a successor this morning and and what President Trump could be referring to in terms of his involvement? >> Sure. Well, uh, we do know that the Assembly of Experts, they say that they are working on this question of picking a new supreme leader. The New York Times is reporting this morning that Kam's son Moshaba has emerged as the leading candidate and they're sourcing that to three Iranian officials familiar with those deliberations. That said, experts, observers, uh talking to NBC News, uh said that they expect that regardless of who comes out on top of this of this contest, uh the Islamic Revolutionary Guard will remain the real real power center as things stand. Uh we did see some comments from a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts that uh that's the body that will decide uh saying they're working on it. They have candidates, but um they're at war, so things might move slower than expected. That's >> right. Matt Bodner, and Matt Bradley, thank you both very much. >> There are more headlines from Tom Yamis' interview with Iran's foreign minister, who's pushing back on claims by the Pentagon that the US and Israel are winning the war. During that interview, the foreign minister called the US attacks on Iran a quote big failure. Even though the US has hit more than 2,000 targets and killed Ayatollah Hamina, Tom pressed the minister on a range of issues from Iran's internet blackouts to why it's hitting civilian targets across the region. Here's some more of that interview. >> Minister, we thank you for your time. Who is in charge of Iran right now? >> Well, I think the system is working very well. uh we have lost the supreme leader but uh according to our constitution there is now a council which uh takes charge of the of his duties and then the presidents the the cabinet ministers uh everybody is in in is in its position so the system is working very well and everybody you know is in charge >> there are reports that Ayatollah Hami's son is a front runner is that True. >> Well, actually I have don't you know exact information. There are many rumors around but you know we have to wait for the you know the assembly of experts uh to ch to choose the new supreme leader. >> The US says it controls the skies that Iran's ballistic missile attacks have dropped more than 80%. The US has hit over 2,000 Iranian targets. The Pentagon says America is winning decisively. Do you think they're wrong? >> Well, I think you know now six days after the war, it is clear that the US has failed to achieve uh its uh uh main goal which was a uh clean rapid victory. They failed to achieve that and now they are trying to justify why they did attack us. >> Your supreme leader was killed. Your top military leaders were killed. your military installations have been bombed. How can you call that a failure? >> Well, then then what what they have been they have achieved? What was their goal? They they came here for a regime change. Perhaps they came here for a rapid victory so they can you know control everything. But they have failed. The system is working. The the the commanders have been replaced and the supreme leader is going to be replaced. Can >> if if I can ask you, can can can Iran win this war? And what does winning look like for Iran? Well, there is no winner in this war. Our win is to be able to resist against, you know, their uh illegal, you know, uh goals. And this is what we have done so far. >> Minister, explain to to us and to the world really. Iran has chosen to attack at least 10 other countries, many of them your Arab neighbors. None of them were involved in this war. Why are you attacking your Muslim neighbors during the holy month of Ramadan? Oh, please, please don't mistake. Uh, we have not attacked our neighbors. We have not attacked Muslim countries. We have attacked Americans targets and Americans bases, Americans installations, which are unfortunately located in in the soils of our neighbors. >> But, Minister, Iran is hitting civilian targets, striking hotels, high-rise apartments, airports in many of these countries. Those are not military targets. >> Well, no. We have we have targeted wherever the Americans are. Maybe there have been some collateral damages as as it is in every every war. >> Minister, to be clear, I want to make sure I understand you here right now. You're saying Iran does not want a ceasefire. >> We are not asking for a ceasefire and we don't see any reason why we should negot negotiate with the US. when we negotiated with them twice and every time they attacked us at the middle of negotiations. So there is no request for a ceasefire by us >> inside Iran right now. We've heard that the government is cutting off the internet. Why are you closing off information for the Iranian population while this crisis is unfolding? >> Well, communication is not cut. All you know social networks are working here and people are connected. As I said, sometimes because of, you know, security reasons, in order to protect our people and protect our facilities, we may cut uh access to internet. >> What is your message to President Trump? >> Well, my message is that their plan A to achieve a clean rapid victory in Iran has failed. We heard that they are thinking of plan B. I'm sure the plan B would even a bigger failure. They lost the opportunity of uh reaching a a deal, a good deal. >> Axios, a media company in the US is reporting that President Trump says he wants to be personally involved in choosing who leads Iran next. What do you say to that? >> That is absolutely the business of Iranian people and nobody can interfere. Our thanks to Tom Yamis for that interview. Here to help us break down some of what we heard. NBC News military analyst Colonel Steve Warren is with us again. Colonel, good to have you with us. So big headline there, Iran basically saying it's ready if US ground troops come in. The president responded telling NBC News yesterday, boots on the ground would be a quote waste of time. So my first question is, do you actually think we will see a ground invasion? And if we do, what kind of forces does Iran have to try and defend against that? >> Sure. I think a ground invasion is probably not in the cards. at least not yet. In order to conduct a ground invasion, we would need to mass probably a quarter million troops along with all the tanks, artillery, and logistics that you need to make that happen. We haven't seen those movements begin. So, I don't think a ground invasion is in the short-term plan. [clears throat] If there is a ground invasion, let's be clear, the Iranians do have a very large standing land army. So, it would be a tough fight. But, you know, being ready for a ground invasion doesn't mean you can win in a ground invasion against the American military. >> Let's talk then about this concept of regime change and how that would even be possible. I mean, you just heard Tom there asking this question about the president wanting to be involved in choosing a new leader. To be clear, he means a leader that is regime change and not the leader in which a process is playing out right now with this group called the Assembly of Experts in Iran to choose a new supreme leader which would essentially of course change the individual but not change the regime. How is it possible that President Trump can even remotely be involved in installing who the leader would be without a ground operation? >> It's a very tough uh circle to square, isn't it? Or square to circle. It's we it's hard to see how that can happen. Now, I think what the the American sort of political strategy here is to create space inside of Iran for an organic uprising. Now, whether or not the president is able to influence who leads that uprising and who ends up as uh a leader in Iran, that remains to be seen. >> We also heard the Iran foreign minister say at this point they have not asked the US for a ceasefire. We're nearly a week in now and I know there are a number of possibilities, but what are the possible ways that this could end at this point? >> Yeah. So, right now, [clears throat] I think the Iranians feel that they're sort of in a corner, that they're on their deathbed, and they only have one option, which is to continue fighting. So, the only way to really, I think, move from our current situation to some sort of a ceasefire is we're going to have to start introducing some sort of an off-ramp for the current regime. In other words, find a way for them to be able to surrender but survive because I think that now is the regime's only goal, survival. >> All right, Colonel. Good to have you with us. We appreciate your analysis. Thank you. >> We thank you for watching and remember, stay updated on breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or watch live on our YouTube channel.
Video description
President Trump fires Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after a series of controversies, American forces strike a key Iranian drone carrier and Israel launches a new round of attacks on Tehran and Beirut. For more context and news coverage of the most important stories of our day, click here: https://www.nbcnews.com » Subscribe to NBC News: http://nbcnews.to/SubscribeToNBC » Subscribe to Here's the Scoop podcast: https://www.nbcnews.com/heres-the-scoop-daily-podcast Every day, NBC News helps people understand what’s happening and why it matters — through fact-based reporting, meaningful conversations, and powerful stories. From its leading news broadcasts — TODAY, NBC Nightly News, Meet the Press, and Dateline — to NBC News NOW, the 24/7 streaming news channel, plus chart-topping podcasts, the NBC News app, and NBCNews.com, NBC News keeps audiences informed and connected to the stories shaping our world. Connect with NBC News Online! NBC News App: https://apps.nbcnews.com/mobile Breaking News Alerts: https://link.nbcnews.com/join/5cj/breaking-news-signup?cid=sm_npd_nn_yt_bn-clip_190621 Visit NBCNews.Com: http://nbcnews.to/ReadNBC Find NBC News on Facebook: http://nbcnews.to/LikeNBC Follow NBC News on Twitter: http://nbcnews.to/FollowNBC Follow NBC News on Instagram: http://nbcnews.to/InstaNBC #dhs #kristinoem #worldnews