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Analysis Summary
Ask yourself: “Who gets to be a full, complicated person in this video and who gets reduced to a type?”
Us vs. Them
Dividing the world into two camps — people like us (good, trustworthy) and people not like us (dangerous, wrong). It exploits a deep human tendency to favor our own group. Once you accept the division, information from "them" gets automatically discounted.
Tajfel's Social Identity Theory (1979); Minimal Group Paradigm
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- Provides detailed insider perspective on US military logistics vulnerabilities and regional economic ripple effects specific to Gulf ports and Indian oil imports.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
Knowing about these techniques makes them visible, not powerless. The ones that work best on you are the ones that match beliefs you already hold.
This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
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Transcript
Uh, with that breaking news, I want to go to a special guest. Colonel Douglas McGregor, US Army Colonel, former senior adviser to Secretary of Defense under President Trump joins me. Appreciate you're joining us. Uh, uh, Colonel McGregor. Uh, how do you see what's happened in the last 72 hours? It appeared that uh unlike in June where Israel and the US virtually had a free run of the skies of Thran, now the ballistic missiles are spreading across the region, Iran is striking back at UAE, at Bahrain, at Kuwait and making it as as Yuzu just described a regional war. Do you believe America is prepared for this for a long war now? >> Uh no. And I hope that uh your audience understands that this war is now an Indian emergency as well. If India's $500 million investment in Javahar is on fire and its oil routes are blocked, then ind Indian interests are at severe risk. You you depend upon 2.6 million barrels of oil to flow through to your ports from the straight of Hormuz every day. If that closes and every Indian family ends up paying a war tax they didn't vote for. So I think it's I I hope that India understands this because India has a role to play in this crisis. Uh we'll come to the Indian role but what you're saying seems to suggest that you also believe that the arena of conflict this time is spreading far and wide with serious economic consequences. Am I correct? Well, of course, every every American base in the region has been hit. Uh even the American air base at Inirick in Turkey has been struck. All of these bases have been rendered unusable by us. Whether they are seapports or airfields, it doesn't make any difference. So, Iran has done a really a spectacular job of simultaneously attacking all of these critical uh bases very early on. And finally, remember this is probably going to go on for weeks or months unless someone soers up in Washington. But the thing that will decide this outcome is logistics. We simply don't have enough missiles on hand. And we have a very long line of communications that takes us all the way back to the United States. We've lost most of the ports, virtually all of them in the region that we would normally use to reload ships, reload missiles, reprovision our forces. So our elements at sea as well as on land right now are limited in how long they can maintain this war contrary to what is being said in Washington right now. >> So are we to understand that Washington was not uh prepared for this kind of Iranian retaliation? Is that what you're suggesting that in any war game planning in Washington at the Pentagon, there was no idea that Iran would immediately escalate this or try to escalate it into a regional conflict which could then get far more prolonged. >> Well, whether or not someone in the Pentagon knew anything uh or thought it all through is a question I can't answer. But one thing is very clear. Uh we don't have an end state in mind. There is no off-ramp. uh the conditions that we demanded which were really Israel's conditions uh from Iran could not be met. They never could. So it's very obvious that what we need today is a way to stability. Right at the moment we can't get there. You know, by the way, I I think it's very important for people to understand that this war began by with the Israeli strike. And frankly at the time we were not yet ready to fight but we decided that we would go in in support of Israel anyway. So I don't think any of this is going to any sort of uh agreed strategic uh program or schedule. >> You made a very interesting point. You seem to suggest that this war in a way is being driven by the Israelis. They did the first strike and the Americans are simply following on on that which is very strange. That normally doesn't happen. Normally it's the other way around that the US takes the lead. Are you saying it's been very different in that sense? Netanyahu is the one who has which virtually pushed Donald Trump into this war. Netanyahu has more influence in Washington where essentially the Israel Israel lobby has purchased the Congress and the White House. President Trump owes his position in the White House to Zionist billionaires that funded him. So, Israel is very much in control. The United States is not. And this is a serious problem. You'll note that the Secretary of Defense talked about uh Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. Well, that's a lot of nonsense. He's he's referring to things that happened 47 40 years ago. Uh Iran has changed profoundly and Iran is not a state sponsor of terrorism. If we were really concerned about radical Islam and terrorism, we'd be focused on Pakistan. Pakistan is the wellspring of radical Islam financed in large part by Saudi Arabia. And now we have a government in Syria which is a product of ISIS and al-Nusra and alqaaida. So why why are we attacking Iran? We are attacking Iran because it's the last state in the region, at least at this point, that is presenting resistance to Israel. Israeli or Jewish supremacy in the region cannot be established until Iran is eliminated as a major player. So we're this is no longer about regime change. We're trying to destroy the Iranian state. >> But so when Donald Trump today turns and says that look, we're going to escalate this war. you've not seen it in an unprecedented manner. It may take weeks. He's also warned of casualties. We've already got confirmed reports of four American soldiers. Are you saying it could get worse? Because what's one one red line we are told is that there will be no use of US ground troops come what may? Well, there can't be any use of ground troops simply because we don't have the ground troops to send. Our army is a fraction of what it was in the past. We simply can't project power into the region. If we try to project power into the region, ballistic missiles will destroy us. Cruise missiles will destroy us. This is a new world we're in. We're seeing the end of an old era and the beginning of a new one. You know, if you just look at the UAE, for instance, it is being effectively taken out of the world economy by a few cheap drones. and our missile defenses have turned out to be completely inadequate to the task of protecting the Gulf States where we've invested time and money to effectively protect them. Well, we can't do it and that's been demonstrated. I think the world is changing dramatically right now. >> So, uh, Colonel McGregor, do you believe therefore regime change is possible or will that be off the table? Will this now be the US and Israel claiming look we got Ali Kamini out now we'll take press the pause button perhaps and go back to the negotiating table. Does the US have the appetite I come back to it for a prolonged confrontation as you're saying is uh is more likely? >> No. There's no appetite in the United States for any sort of major war let along a long war. That's something that most Americans are unalterably opposed to. The Israelis have purchased the Congress and the White House. That's why we're doing what we are doing. There is no pressure or interest in the United States in any of this. You know, what we what we want in the United States has nothing to do with what President Trump and Congress are doing right now. >> This need really needs to be understood. In the meantime, supply chains, you know, the global hub in the UAE with aviation, these things are being destroyed. You know, you've got 4.6 million of your citizens stranded in the Gulf. Uh India faces a domestic humanitarian crisis that no evacuation can easily handle. This is a disaster. And that's why I said I hope that the Indian government, which is probably the only adult in the room left right now, can bridge this gap. We're entering a sovereign shift. The future of the world is not being written in Washington anymore. By the time this is over, the Sykes Pico treaty, which created all of these tiny Arab states after the First World War, will be irrelevant. You know, the future is being written now in the Persian Gulf and in Asia. It's it's time really for everybody to understand the world has changed. America doesn't want it to change. That is the American government. We're really fighting against the future right now, not just Iran, because Iran is not our enemy. It's Israel's enemy. But but in conclusion, you've got the might of the American uh uh uh forces. You've got and technology. You've got Israel uh with perhaps the sharpest intelligence uh that that that you can get and also a very strong force with technology and you've got other nations slowly grouping rallying around uh uh the US and Israel. Are you telling me that Iran can resist this you believe for an extended period? >> Yes. >> Yes. I think Iran is resisting and that's really all Iran has to do. Iran is the one that has to endure. It has to survive and I think that it will. The United States is in a very difficult position now because of all the bombastic rhetoric from President Trump. We keep advertising ourselves as the most powerful nation in the world. That means that Iran has to submit unconditionally to whatever we demand based on what the Israelis demand. That's not going to happen. In the meantime, I think we figured out that a few thousand dollars worth of drones can take down a half trillion dollar economy in the Gulf. The UAE, a great example. This this thing is going to drag on for months. The Chinese and the Russians are watching. Uh Iranian air defenses are beginning to be effective. The the missiles that Iran has are almost inexhaustible, whereas the missiles on our side are very limited and we can't produce them quickly. We can't surge power. We can't surge missiles. >> Okay, I'm going to leave this Colonel McGregor there. You've uh in a way spoken out your mind and given us a very different perspective in a way there from uh the United States. I appreciate you joining me here on uh the show
Video description
Has Trump Thought It Through?