Trump's FATAL MISCALCULATION On Iran - Ian Bremmer On Iran War

I get into specific questions. What do you make of what's um what's happening now? I know you do these analysis on your channel. So, what's your analysis of the developments up to today? >> Uh it is uh couldn't be more different from what you and I have talked about on Venezuela, right? And and of course, I mean, Trump launched these attacks in part because he was so confident with how well it went in Venezuela. uh you know, he got the leader out, he put him in jail, he's got a new government that he can work with. No negative economic consequences. In fact, lots of economic opportunities on the back of it. Um positive domestic sentiment at home. Uh positive regional sentiment in Latin America, people that want to work with them more on going after drug lords, things like that. I mean, on every single one of those aspects, it's not going the way he wants right now >> in Iran. >> Um, and so, you know, the war is, and by the way, people are all asking me, "Oh, he's got all of these different reasons why he's going to war, and he's not coherent. He's not cohesive." He had plenty of reasons for Venezuela, too. He had plenty of reasons for tariffs. He was giving as many reasons as people asked him questions. But because it went so well at the beginning of this year, nobody really cared if there were lots of different reasons. But when it doesn't go so well, suddenly you you dig into, well, why is he doing this? How are we going to get out of it? Like what's the end plan? Like what how what's the declaration of victory look like? And the more he doubles down and digs in to I've got to be in charge. It's got to be a regime that I'm in favor of. There's unconditional surrender. when you know that that doesn't look plausible at least today. Um it it gets a lot more challenging. So you know what does it look like today? It looks like the Americans and the Israelis are going to be involved in a lot more strikes. Some American servicemen and women have already died. More probably are going to, God forbid. Uh a lot of Iranian civilians have gotten killed. Those numbers are clearly going to go way up. Uh energy prices are have ticked up higher, particularly on natural gas. that looks like it's going to continue uh and uh and and how Trump is going to get to an outcome that he wants looks more likely to be forced to change his outcomes uh than in terms of being able to declare unconditional victory. So do you think the initial plan was a very quick um go in bomb Iran cause a collapse of the regime over 4 days and then get out and finish it by Monday or or early in the in the week after? Was that the initial plan? I think the initial intention was days. It was certainly destroy a lot of the military capabilities including the ballistic missiles which they largely ignored during the 12-day war um and were a significant uh concern of the Israelis. Uh but also that uh once you kill the supreme leader then there'll be plenty of people in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that the Americans will be able to work with. It'll be much more pragmatic. Um and and that will then form the basis of ongoing conversations both in terms of a deal uh around their military uh capabilities, their proxy support, um as well as a a reduction of American sanctions that would allow the Iranians to produce more energy and build an economy for their people. >> Okay. And then what went wrong? What did the US underestimate? Is it Iran's ferocity in its attacks and how far it would go in retaliation? Is it Iran's regime, how how in decentralized it has become, how decentralized power has become? Is it the lack of willingness for Iranians to rally against the regime as they did in January? What did they get wrong? >> Well, I I don't think it's the latter because no one would expect the Iranians to rise up while the while the bombs are flying, right? I mean, you know, you'd want at least the smoke to clear before there would be a significant response. But I think you're right on all the other points, Mario, but I would start with something a little bigger picture, which is that Trump presumes that international leaders, whether they admit it or not, are all motivated by the same things that he is, money and power, and that's it. and you know that therefore you get rid of Maduro, you find somebody else that you can work with and you know you cut that deal with them. Um and you know there are some countries out there and some leaders that are more powerful, they've got more money, they've got more strength and they can hit back and so those are the people you need to negotiate with are those that are weaker and those the ones that you can ground into the sand and get whatever you want from them. Right? That's that's the way it works. That's the way it works when he was a real estate guy, when he was a media brand. It's the way it works when he's president. He's now dealing with a group of leaders, many of whom are not fundamentally motivated. Uh, ironically, they are fundamentally motivated, but they're not motivated fundamentally by money and power. Um, they're motivated um by, you know, their theocracy. They're motivated uh by a set of beliefs that are not going to be resolved by throwing cash at them. Um they're more motivated by death to America and death to Israel. And they're more motivated by having the ability to control the Islamic Republic by the book. Um, and uh, you know, Trump can say it's unacceptable for Mushtaba Hamei to become the next Supreme Leader, but you know, frankly, it's the Guardians Council that's going to make that decision. It's not Trump. And and so I I I think that he fundamentally misunderstands the nature of a radical theocracy which is deeply entrenched and where money clearly pays a role but it's it's not the only thing that's going to motivate these people. I think he also misunderstood how much they would feel against the wall when you engage in decapitation strikes and you know sort of this so this is very different his experience he wasn't just motivated by his Venezuela success he was also motivated by his experience in the 12-day war he was motivated in his experience when he assassinated Kasamsulammani the head of the cuds force at the end of his first term and in both cases the Iranian retaliation against the United States was negligible. And so he presumed that would be the case here. But the reality was after having decapitated the regime, not just the supreme leader but also the military leadership, um the response was decentralization and allow local commanders to do whatever they can to strike whatever they can hit with the weapons that they have. And that that was clearly unexpected. It was unanticipated. And the Americans then had to suddenly draw up plans for evacuation. They had to draw up um the ability to maybe escort ships um and and ensure them uh that are not presently transiting through the straits. But that seems to be everyone I spoke to from a military perspective escorting the ships through the straight of Haramuz uh through the the I think the Arabian Sea is is a massive strategic risk because Iran would just be able to hit those ships those those US ships and the the tankers with their neverending supply of drones.

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