IRAN CONTINUES BOMBING GULF - Ex-CIA Larry Johnson On Iran War

Larry, good to speak to you again. >> Yes, my friend. Good to be with you. [gasps] >> Big day today. Um, some crazy comments from Trump. Not sure if you've seen them that just came out. He was asked >> he was asked if Iran would look the same after the war and he said probably not. So, that was a pretty terrifying statement. We also saw pretty heavy bombardment of Iran, including their oil storage facilities. Um that was pretty spectacular to see and not in a good way. And lastly, there was um not lastly, I'm sure there's a lot more we'll go through throughout this, but there one um big point of discussion was the Iran president's statement that he will not strike neighboring countries that are not involved in attacks on Iran. So that was his statement. Everyone assumed that this is an indication that Iran is stepping back from attacking Gulf nations. Either changing strategy or a sign of weakness. maybe their launchers are getting hit hard. But then hours later, um, Gulf was struck, including one of the largest biggest buildings in in Dubai. And, um, and there was a casualty there as well. And, um, various theories on this. Maybe the president of Iran meant something else. Others are saying maybe the IRGC are not agreeing with the political group, political class leaders, and they still want to continue striking the Gulf nations. Um but it's hard to know exactly um what the president meant and why the strikes continue. But I'd love to get your analysis on this, Larry. >> Well, number one, um I I do think the IRGC is calling the military shots, not possesses. Uh the the other element though is there's no evidence that the Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis have backed away from being uh tools of the United States. And I think uh Iran correctly recognizes uh the the United States and those particularly Qatar and and the Amiratis, they're in real trouble. Uh the economically they they're going to suffer much more than Iran. Iran suffered economically for years. They're used to that suffering. Um the attack on the oil refineries and and oil storage tanks in Iran simply means Iran will respond in kind. And they have done so. uh they've they've hit the uh the oil depots in in Israel in in uh I believe it's in Hifa. Uh so you know the the West has made the mistake of grossly underestimating Iran's capability because what what Iran has done over the course of the last seven days is remarkable. They have taken out five radars. These are the the the AN uh let's see they call one the ANIE AN TSP the tipsy and the other one is the AN FPS. These radars cost between $500 million and $1 billion. >> So these they they've destroyed Iran has destroyed roughly5 billion dollar in radar equipment alone. [clears throat] And that means now the United States is reliant on >> the the the A just that's the one you're talking about the ANFPS132 radar worth about a billion dollars. That radar just to give context quickly for the audience. This radar is a key node in Washington's global missile shield covering a vast area from Europe to the Indian Ocean. Only six exist worldwide including sites in the US, Britain, Greenland. Now it wasn't destroyed. It was just damaged. But it just shows how significant that radar is. >> No, it it was destroyed. Trust me, I I've heard from somebody who's in a position to know. United States went, "Oh, you barely touched us." [laughter] It's a lie. Uh, you know, they they it was destroyed and and right now we're relying upon Awax um the E3 Prowers, I guess they're called, to stay in because what they do is they relay information to the ground uh air defense systems, the Patriots or the THADs. The other thing they've done is Iran's destroyed three THAAD batteries. Now there are only like 11 of them in the world. Um and the number of THAAD missiles produced uh on a year is like 7980. So and these are each of those missiles goes to a tune of 13 million a piece. >> [snorts] >> So, so look the uh and then that's not to mention the devastation that's been heaped on US military installations in Bahrain. That's the most important. Followed up by Aluded uh air base in Qatar. Again, the United States is putting out the lie. Oh, it barely touched us. You know, we got the full control. We're doing great. Okay. Well, we got some background facts that show that that's not the case. In Germany, there is a regional medical center called Lanzer. Uh it is 13 miles west of uh of a town, US military base called Kaiser Lton. Uh so Kaiser's Lon air base yesterday. They put out the notice. Uh we need to get troops in here to donate blood. Oh, really? The blood drive? This the annual? No, it's not the annual blood drive. And then two days prior to that, the hospital at lunchto stool announced um all all pregnancy services for dealing with babies, newborns, births, we're cancelling those. We we have to focus on our primary mission. What might that be? Oh, they're the primary delivery spot for soldiers that are wounded. So the casualties that the United States has suffered are much much greater. Uh then you I posted this last night. There was a a picture at Andrews Air Force Base of uh of a medical transport and then these three three large vans transporting wounded uh to Walter Reed Medical Center. Used to be called Bethesda Naval Center. I frankly I used to live like five blocks uh south of that. So, uh, there there's a lot more damage being done to the United States than they want to admit. The other clue, State Department's really upset with CNN. I mean, CNN's going into Iran and reporting that things aren't that bad. Now, if if the United States was doing the level of damage that it claims to Iran, wouldn't you want to get every media outlet possible in there? get them in. Let's show this, man. Let's look at it. Because Iran's not putting restrictions on people, unlike what Israel does to journalists that want to get into Gaza or even go into Tel Aviv or Hifa right now. So this this this information operation game that the United States plays repeatedly in these wartime scenarios uh is you know they're at it again and they're ignoring the fact that Iran now is in a position to to launch missiles that previously with those ground radars they were detected 15 minutes 30 minutes beforehand. Now even the Israelis admitting they only get like one minute warning one to two minute warnings. So, uh, Iran, you know, Iran's holding its own. I'm not saying Iran's not getting any damage and they're not Iranians being killed. Of course, there are. But the the tendency of the United States to grossly exaggerate its accomplishments when what we what we're seeing is right now Iran firmly holds the straight of Hermuz. Uh there is uh the oil last I saw the price of Brent was creeping towards $100 a barrel. the uh when you watch Scott Bessant, you know, you feel like your head's on a swivel. Four weeks ago, he was pressuring India. Stop buying that Iran, that Russian oil. You got to stop that. We can't have that anymore. And now he's going, "Hey, you know what? We're listening those sanctions. Go ahead, buy it. It's okay with us." >> Yeah. They're also They're also considering lifting all sanction not all sanctions, but more sanctions on on Russian [clears throat] oil. This war is economically and militarily a godsend for Russia right now. All distraction away from Ukraine. The US spread thin. [snorts] By the way, your comment on CNN, I just looked it up. You're right. Uh a senior State Department official uh Dylan Johnson accused CNN of spreading pro-Iran regime propaganda after correspondent Frederick reported from Thran that daily life appeared relatively calm, normal. Example, people buying coffee groceries despite ongoing Israeli US Israeli strikes, implying things aren't that bad. The statement the State Department urged media to verify with official US sources instead. What do you mean official? How would you verify with official US sources instead about what's happening in Iran? >> Yeah, we're supposed to have, you know, this is CNN doing what it used to do. I mean, it used to actually be a world media report that we could rely on. I I I mean I'm I'm going to take you way back to show you how old I am. In in the in the summer of 1986, so 40 years ago, I was sitting in the CIA's operation center. So I was working I was working 12-hour shifts and uh this is before I to started my duties as an analyst. And there had been the hijacking of I think it was a TWWA airplane that was hijacked in in Pakistan. I don't remember the specific plane, but what I do remember is we were tuned there in the operations center to CNN. >> We were getting better information off of CNN back then than we were from our CIA sources out in the field >> back in the day. Yeah, I remember Prince um I went to interview Prince [clears throat] Al Wal Bent Tal in Saudi and he still had he's obviously an older man, older than you and he still has CNN TVs everywhere because that's what he's used to CNN and Fox. he had both on different TVs because he's used to that being the main source of news and it back in the day it was obviously now things have changed with X and he's invested in X so he knows that but just going back to your point like back in the day and it's good to see CNN do that and not only in I think a lot of this mainstream media we'll get back to the topic of Iran but a lot of mainstream media has really dropped the ball when it comes to domestic issues but still cover international issues better than than uh than most others um but let's let's go back to what's happening in Iran you make some interesting points. Um, I see Iran, I'll tell you my perspective and and let me know where you disagree and what you agree with. I see Iran as militarily struggling massively uh because of the strikes on their launchers. So, the radar systems, American radar systems are able to spot the launchers very quickly and send it um be the data to the fighter jets. There's a there's a name for it. Let me get the name for you now. Sensor shooter. So they send the data to the fighter jets and the fighter jet im the closest fighter jet immediately strikes the launchers and they're able to strike the launchers at times before it fires. >> So that hurt Iran militarily significantly and that's why we're seeing the attacks drop by over 90 95%. And I think I could be wrong that it's not intentional by Iran preparing for a war of attrition but it's actually their capacity to strike has been severely hampered when it comes to missiles not drones. But I also think that Iran strategically is winning because >> if they survive, they win. For a win for the US, they need to get rid of the regime. And I don't think they will succeed without boots on the ground. >> And I don't think Trump has the political leeway to send troops to Iran. So that's why I think that Iran, the regime will win strategically, but lose militarily. And I'd love to get your thoughts on that. >> Yeah, I I I think I agree with you strategically. Uh I have another take on the military side of it. The US is lying. Okay, the lying. How do we know that? So let's go back eight months. Eight months ago, Operation Rough Rider now. How did the How did the Houthies launch missiles? Oh, they had they had mobile missile launchers just like Iran, except their territory was not as dense, not as mountainous, not as forested. How did we do there against destroying the Houthi missiles? Because we had the predators up over we actually we had more of our aircraft flying over Yemen than we do in in in Iran right now. >> Wow. >> By far. Oh, yeah. If you look the the the US aircraft are staying largely outside. They're firing these missiles. The JASMs and the JDAMs, they're firing from outside the the western border of Iran where borders uh because if you if you look at the depth of the strikes in Chartum, they're all about 270 to 350 miles in the the range of those JDAMs. uh the the AGM uh the airto ground missile is about 500 miles. So the the planes aren't flying and I guarantee you whatever information they get about the location of a launcher in X point, it's still that missile's got to fly 10 15 minutes for a mobile launcher that's moving. All we know is that the United States didn't have that capability 8 months ago and now we're told that oh it's magical. We're destroying everything. We destroyed, do you know we destroyed 60% of their launchers? How do we know how many launchers they had? Huh? I mean, what what was their starting number? Because >> wouldn't Msad wouldn't wouldn't MSAD have access to that information? They're socially not because the missiles are underground. The launchers are underground. Now, if the launchers and missiles were being produced at above ground locations, yeah, we've got overhead imagery. We got satellites. You know, you can put analysts to work counting that stuff. I mean, it pretty tedious work. Uh, and you also got some artificial intelligence you can apply to it. But this stuff's underground. And plus, we're seeing missiles being launched literally out of the dirt. So, they're covered up. And so this this claim that we're just destroying launchers, I I think several of the what we think we destroyed were decoys. And this is not the first time they put decoys out, not just Iran, but the Serbs were doing it back uh you know, good lord, 28 years ago. So like I said, this this happy talk about, oh man, look at all the devastation we did. All I know we've got historical record of example after example going back to the first Gulf War in 1990 followed by the second invasion of Iraq in 2003 where with the military Pentagon makes all these wild claims about success like they claimed in uh you know Ted Posttol has re rebutted this that they claimed that they used like 90% of the patriots shot down or were successful in engaging targets and it turned out the statistic were exact 100 degrees 180 degrees opposite. But this is not new for the Pentagon. Go back to Vietnam. In Vietnam, you know, because you get this bureaucratic pressure to be successful, to do what the president says to show show we're winning. And by God, man, we we were killing so ving so many Vietnamese and Vietkong uh that the the war is almost over. That was 1967. And the analyst, George, the the the director for the Southeast Division at CIA, a guy named George Allen, who I he trained me as a new analyst. So I, you know, I look fondly back at the man because he was, you know, a man of great courage and integrity. And he had an analyst working for him by the name of Sam Adams. And Sam was fluent in Vietnamese. Sam was also a multi-millionaire. That made him even more dangerous cuz a lot of people, a lot of analysts are not swimming in cash and so they've always got to say, "I got to be careful what I say so I don't get fired." Sam basically didn't care. He said, "Hey, fire me. I'm not it's not going to affect my livelihood." But they were reporting that there were far more living, breathing, fighting Vietkong and North Vietnamese than the Pentagon wanted to admit. And lo and behold, along came Tet in January of ' 68, and the Vietkong overran US bases north and south. So, like I said, this the the times in which the US military have told the truth. And look, I watched this from the inside for 23 years working with Joock. You remember, you remember that we got told that story about Marcus Terrell, the lone survivor? you know, they put these four Navy Seals out and all this heroic struggle. >> H it was a it was a lie. The guy the guy dropped his weapon, ran away. I mean, you know, but he was a coward and, you know, doesn't want to hear that. But he in that situation, instead of sticking with his buddies and fighting like he was supposed to, he ran away. He survived. Good. I'm glad he survived. But what did what did the Department of Department of Defense do? spawn this hotel of great heroism and bravery and you know like they lie to manipulate the American public into this because here we're engaged in a war that there is absolutely no legal moral justification for it and now Trump was out today with the fact that the Iranians are cutting women in half and killing babies. I mean come on. >> You just ruined my favorite movie. You're saying the the actor and lone survivor Marcus Marcus Latrrell. I've I love that movie. You saying Mark? >> Yeah. Mark Wahberg played the movie. >> Yeah. Yeah. Latro ran away. >> All right. That's That's one of my favorite movies. Gone. Um I want to ask you a question though. And by the way, while you're speaking, Connor, the news is making your point. There's an explosion in quite literally two minutes ago. Um 30 minutes ago there was an explosion visual confirmation of direct impact in Bahrain [clears throat] in the in the city center in Manama and then you know I was doing an interview with our friend uh Colonel Davis and while we're doing the interview I had an alert on my phone. I'm in Dubai of a strike and then ended up striking one of the big towers here in Dubai. It was debris from debris from the air defense system striking a missile or a drone. Um, so and that comes after the president of Iran said that we're not going to strike neighbors that don't attacks are not don't don't launch from there. But at the same time, the volume of attacks by Iran has dropped significantly by over 90%. You're saying that's intentional preparing for a war of attrition. >> Yeah. I mean, they did that last June. So the you know the part of the initial rush you is you're trying to deplete air defense systems as well as you're trying to detect uh where the v vulnerabilities are. So you put out a lot of you know the initial missiles that were fired were not the you know not the highest u quality they weren't their best or most sophisticated. same with drones. But then then they cut back and you found that the targets were being more um hit with greater precision. And so one of the things that has happened in the course of this is as they've taken out these a radar systems, the effectiveness of western air defense systems have have deteriorated. So they don't need to fire as many. And again, I come back that if they're not having if they're not doing damage and if they're being defeated at, you know, 90 95% then Israel should be in, hey, look, come in here. Let's get all the reporters in the room. We'll show you that this Ayatollah is nonsense, that these Iranians are weak. They can't they can't touch us. But they're not we're not doing that. We're doing the exact opposite. Hey, we got to shut down that CNN. They're claiming, you know, they're they're pushing propaganda. Yeah. Because they can actually drive around the country and report on the reality. And I'm not saying that we're not, you know, we're not blowing up things and causing damage in Iran. We are. We're killing Iranians. >> But we keep forgetting our history. And by way of comparison, because you've you've done a lot of analysis over the years, look at look at Ukraine. Look at the volume of fire that the Russians have inflicted on the Ukrainians. The last number I saw was over 12,000 ballistic missile strikes in four years. Four years plus now. >> 12,000. Wow. 12,000 plus. And cruise missiles on top of that. That's not counting the thousands, tens of thousands of drones that have struck as well as these fab these bombs that can be dropped, the glide bombs. And that's been done across Ukraine and it's been documented the hits. Ukraine is onethird the size of Iran. So, you think we're inflicting more damage on Iran than Russia's inflicted on Ukraine in four years? >> Sorry, that's not happening. And this fantasy world that the US military lives in because uh we go through the you know, you're not really old enough to remember the whole shock and awe campaign of 2003, all the great I've seen the footage and Yeah. >> Yeah. And and again, you go back then, oh, we've decimated the the Iraqis, etc. And then we had a several month hunt for Saddam Hussein because we didn't get him and and we did kill civilians in the process. So, it's it's like we keep running the same playbook and and it doesn't turn out with a victory at the end. And we we keep we we keep thinking if we drop enough bombs, we're going to be able to force them to surrender. And I'll just give you one more again. example, real world, real time. Look at what Israel has failed to do in the Gaza Strip after two and a half years. Yes, they have decimated the place. They've killed, you know, the lowest estimate is 70,000. I think it's much higher than that, over 100,000. But they don't control it. Hamas is still leading it. And >> are we are we prepared to say that we can do more damage? They've leveled they've levered leveled Gaza and Gaza is a tiny slither of land and look at Iran. That's exactly what Colonel Davis told me. Um but when I see footage like this at least if you play that video my team's about to post it as well. It's just gaining traction right now. >> It is heartbreaking what's happening to Iran. >> This is Iran. It just looks like hell. >> Well, it's not the first time it's happened to him either. go back to 19 September 1980 and go through the following nine years. The United States encouraged and then uh Saddam Hussein to invade and then we supplied Saddam Hussein with weapons and particularly with precursor chemicals that were used to produce mustard gas that was that killed over 300,000 Iranians. So, you know, Iran has they've been through this. They suffered through this before. what they're doing right now is I I think pretty clever >> because um they they have shut off the straight of Hormuz and neither neither uh United Arab Emirates or Qatar can put up with this much longer. I I heard that the the source of fresh food is like down to a 10 10day supply. So there there's going to be some genuine logistic physical issues for those uh for those two countries. Dubai, Dubai and Doha, you know, which have become sort of these great uh vacation retirement spots and the destinations the the lusters, you know, the the the the gold the gold glimmer off of them is gone. Uh similarly, Saudi Arabia its cash flow, it's going to be severely impacted. And then when you look at the damage um you know done to the liquid natural gas production out of Qatar which is what onethird 1/4 or higher of the world production it's it's one of the top three producers u that's shut down and that can't get re if if they restarted it tomorrow >> it's going to be at least a month. Uh similarly with the aluminum smelting that takes place. Yeah, that's a very good point. Like I um the point I made and why in that same tweet when I said Iran want Iran is going to win strategically is all that Iran does by the small video footage of the destruction in Iran which is heartbreaking because today Trump said he's going to strike Iran very hard today and he struck a lot of their their old oil depots. Um and he also something we'll talk about he's from what I heard the US struck an Iranian water desalination plant which is very risky because if Iran starts to target those in the Gulf >> that is a big problem the Gulf depend on those desalination plants um but on the straight of Hormuz all that Iran really needs to do is shut >> the straight of Hormuz for another few weeks >> and the Gulf nations won't be able to sustain it Asia won't be able to sustain it Europe Europe won't be able to sustain it. Everything else is more like a bonus. Striking Israel is a bonus. It's not necessary. It's a bonus. Striking Gulf countries to an extent, depending what target, it's a bonus to pressure the US. Striking US bas is a bonus to have. But what is necessary for Iran, what they need to do, and that's not that hard with all their drones, is to target the uh straight of homes and keep it closed. >> Yeah, they can do that with drones. And then we're not even talking about putting in mines. They've got that capability and they've got submarines. The other thing I'm looking at >> Yeah, they haven't mined. Exactly. That's a good point. They haven't mined the straight over M. >> Yeah, >> they haven't done that yet. >> The other vulnerability is apparently this the Gerald R. Ford, the aircraft carrier is now traversing trying to diverse the Red Sea. And I've heard that there have been some attempts to attack attack it uh if the Houthies decide to really target it. And and frankly, if I was Iran and the Houthies, I would uh destroy the aircraft carrier in the Red Sea before it gets out. uh that that is going to create pressure on Trump because he's he's already facing political heat at home. It's not like this is unlike 2003 where the American people have been lied to about uh claims that Iraq was involved with al-Qaeda and Iraq was involved with the attacks of 9/11. Uh so a majority vast majority of Americans supported that and those of us that tried to speak out against and warned that it was all a lie, you know, we were attacked and called anti-American. Well, this time, this go around, he's only starting with 25% support. So, the vast majority of Americans aren't they're not they're not buying into the gaslighting. And as the as the pain increases, you know, yeah, those are those are vivid awful images that that you're able to show. But, you know, we we caused massive destruction in cities throughout Germany in World War II. We did the same to North Vietnam. And then we did the same to to Iraq. And it doesn't what this these kinds of attacks instead of weakening the resolve of the people, it ends up galvanizing them that they rally around the government. >> Larry, are you ready for this? This this uh the timing of our interview is perfect because news is coming out to to to make your point for you. >> New York Times just put this out. US officials provided classified briefings to Congress this week, estimating that Iran still retains as much as about 50% of of its ballistic missile program and a significantly larger percentage of its drone capabilities. >> Yeah, it's it's underground. You know, look, I I was >> I I I can't go into all the details, but uh about 15 years ago, I was directly involved in scripting a military exercise where we were going where we went into Iran to attack one of the underground nuclear facilities. And the lesson learned from that exercise was don't do it. It's too difficult. Well, what we also learned or understood in this, and this is going back some years, that Iran had been moving its capabilities underground, once they're underground, we can't see it. The only way you can get information is you've got to put a source, a human source in there that is going to come out and reliably report on that. Uh, to my knowledge, we don't have that kind of source. Now, MSAD, it's true. MSAD has they've done some penetrations of both the Iranian Revolutionary Guard uh they've uh the of the military of the police. So you know I don't want to discount and say that Israel's intelligence capabilities in terms of recruiting people that can provide information on uh Iran's weaknesses etc. But when it comes to what the what's happened on the missile front, uh we've the West has grossly in my judgment underestimated it. And and and we're starting to see it right now because I I return to the issue that if we're being as successful as we claim, then we would not have any hesitancy to bring in reporters and news media and and even, you know, podcasters like yourself to say, "Hey, take a look at this. You got we're giving you the free access." Instead, they're limiting the access. And and you know, one of the problems they've got now is people like yourself and and the the alternative media universe. This this ability to not have to worry about some corporate sponsorship that you're free to you're free to ask questions, investigate, and bring on uh you know, guests that you choose instead of being being told that okay, you got to have this guest on and they've got to say X, Y, and Z. I mean I I I used to be a regular commentator on mainstream news >> and then came after about 2006 2007 kept finding out that that they'd call first to do a pre-in to find out what are you going to say and then when I told him oh listen we're going to go a different direction today and and you know like right now with respect to the war uh whether it's in Ukraine or whether it's the war now in Iran they're not allowing ing alternative voices which have uh which can bring a different point of view to to it on on on air. >> That is that is a big development that that is pretty I know it's been you've been saying this for a while but it's so hard to really verify. [cough and clears throat] It's hard to verify are the launches completely destroyed and Iran's barely surviving or is Iran doing fine militarily still significantly stronger than what they're making it out to be. Is the US struggling with munitions or they have more munitions in storage that we don't know about cuz that's classified information. So, it's really really hard to tell. We can only speculate by looking at all the facts. And I look at the number of missiles and drones dropping so significantly especially especially missiles. But then as you said the same thing happened in the 12 day war dropped by over 90% for the missiles about the same even more for the drones. Then you look at all right are they still causing damage across the Gulf? Yes. Are they still striking Israel? Yes. Are they still striking American bases? Yes. Is the straight of Hormuz still closed? Yes. >> So, [snorts] how is Iran losing? >> Yeah. Well, let me get let me give you a couple other data points. So um with with respect to air defense missiles, yes, US stocks are are depleted if not near depletion or extinction and particularly the PAC 3 missile that is fired out of the Patriot. We know be we know thanks to the annual budget information that DoD publishes that the total number of pack 3 missiles produced since 2015. 2015 was the first year of full production is 4,620 through December 25th of last year. Okay, that sounds like a lot until you say how many uh of those missiles are fired against an incoming missile, ballistic missile or cruise missile attack. The answer to that is a minimum of two. So what that tells us is they those Patriot missiles are capable of engaging if the total number is 4,620 that means 2,310 missiles, ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. Well, we know that Russia fired 12,000 plus missiles. So we know that all the patriots that were sent to uh Ukraine were used up in that process. Uh we know through uh public information that there there were a total of 14 batteries or battalions, missile battalions in the US military. Three of those battalions are detailed to Endo Paccom or Pacific Command, the ones responsible for uh China. They have uh each of those battalions have between four to six batteries. Those are individual launchers. And each of those launchers can carry between 72 and 96 missiles. So I just ran the numbers using the high end and the low end. So on that US is running out of missiles. Hey, that's not speculation. That's just a fact of production. The same with the fats. The annual production the annual production right now on Patriots is 620. Okay. Uh and and the annual production on uh THAAD missiles, the terrain high altitude area defense weapons is 79. So that we're not talking a day or a month. 79 a year. Those are and those go to a pop at $13 million a piece. Look that one up. You'll see I'm I'm not making this up. >> That is these are insane number. 79 of which one? uh of of of the THAAD the the terrain high alitude area defense just ask how many what's the annual production on those >> I'll wait for it to finish >> that is >> so then why get into this war and how long could they sustain this war >> because we we we continue to not sit down >> less than a hundred of these interceptors a year >> as of now >> 96 I think is what you said 9096 that is insane Yeah. Now on JDAM front, they got thousands of those. Okay. Those are these aerial launch missiles. J Dams. They're not running out of those. Um they have run out of the air uh the uh >> how can you can you break down the effect effectiveness of each one? What's the difference between them? >> Okay. So the JDAM's in that's the one they're dropping right now on on Iran. It's launched. You know, the planes carry it. They launch it. It can fly out. I believe it can fly out to about 500 550 miles is considered its maximum range to be accurate. Um I I I haven't run the number on the J SAMs um but there there may be less >> they can produce 25,000. >> Yeah. Yeah. So they've got they're not running out of those but they are running out of the air air defense side which uh you know >> is there what are the what are the various air defense systems that they have? So, the Thad we just went through. What are the others? >> Thad and Patriot. That's it. That's it. >> There's no others. No other. >> No, no, no, no. Those are those are the those are the Lamborghini and the Ferraris of it. They're not the ones that can actually bring down ballistic missiles. I mean, those are the only ones potentially capable of bringing down ballistic missiles and they've been proven. >> So, they could they could they can make a 100 Thads less than 100 Thads and about 600 uh pack fees. The the Patriots. Yeah, >> that but how so [laughter] the math is not mathing. >> No kidding. >> How they But why why is anyone talking about sustaining this war? >> Well, because are not there, >> right? But but those >> Ukraine Ukraine hasn't ended either. Ukraine is still there. >> Yeah. Well, and let's remember that, you know, the the economics of this for these military-industrial comp. They're not getting paid on whether they win or lose. They're not getting paid on how many missiles get shot down with their systems. They're just getting paid to produce it. So the the average I've heard two different figures for the Pack 3,4 million and 6 million. So let's take the middle. Let's go 5 million. You fire two $5 million missiles at one inbound um drone fired by Iran that cost $50,000. The the maths don't work on that one either. over over an extended period of time. So, you continue to run the cost up uh at at a time, you know, it'd be one thing if the United States was sitting on a debt to GDP ratio like Russia where, you know, 19%, but we're not. We're we're like 128% debt to GDP. Uh so, yeah, it's unsustainable economically unsustainable. And then the economic shocks that are now coming as a result of the shutdown of the straight of Homus. You know, this is uh already in the United States, you know, they were the the MAGA influencers three weeks ago were bragging, oh boy, gas is heading for a buck 50 a gallon. Uh the gas prices are up almost 40 cents now in just the last six days and going to continue to rise. And all that's coming at the time we got news that unemployment in the United States is rising rapidly that the inflation that's increasing. So we're now getting this thing called stagflation that I remember back in the 70s >> when I was uh you know in my mid20s and you know we're we're going back to the future. The US is so unprepared if China decides to invade Taiwan right now, especially if they're not able to get their hands on the trade of Hormuz. If they're not able to to take down the regime, if they are, if they succeed in doing so, it's it's not looking good right now. But if they succeed in doing so, then having the ability to choke off the straight of Hormuz and choke off Chinese um energy imports, then they have a chance >> in at least deterring China from invading Taiwan. If they don't and [clears throat] China decides to make its move, if if the US fails now in Iran and the stock bars are this low and Ukraine still um is still going on and not slowing, then China may look at this as as their opportunity to reunify with Taiwan. [snorts] Well, let's look at it from the Chinese position. Number one, Taiwan is already part of China. China's position is that Taiwan is part of China. It has never ceased being part of China. So um I I put very very low probability that China is going to do anything militarily against Taiwan because when the what's happening to the west economically is going to mean that the west is no no more a viable economic partner for Taiwan that the future economically is with China in terms of uh China's production of energy. You know, the future of AI is dependent upon the ability to produce incredible quantities of electricity. China's got that in the bag. The United States isn't even they haven't even gotten into the game, nor has Europe. So, you come a point at which this this vision that China's had that they can somehow become a critical player for the West, I think they're going to at some point re recognize, you know what, there's no future with the West. The future is with the global south. That's where I think this is headed. >> By the way, Trump was just asked uh I don't know if is that true? Can you play this, Lee? Someone play this audio because there's no way this is true. This is just weird. Like I understand Trump has really interesting replies sometimes. He was asked about the US bombing in Iranian dalination plant. Lisa, if you could play the link I sent you with the audio, please. It's only audio. It's no video. He says they're are evil people. They cut babies heads off. >> Yeah. And women in half. >> Um let's let's let's ignore that comment. Let's let's just call it Trumping Trump. He makes some pretty outlandish comments sometimes. Let's go back to what's happening on the ground. There is a strategy right now to have the Kurds um >> become the boots on the ground. >> Yeah, >> I'm I'm with you when I saw this. They just don't have the capacity. They've got very limited troops. Just play the audio on that one, [clears throat] please. Uh, Lisa, from the beginning, put the volume up. Uh, we can't hear the audio. Well, we can't hear it. It doesn't matter. Don't worry about it. Um, so the the the Kurdish troops don't have the capacity to fight the Iranian army. No matter how no matter how much you bomb them, the Iranian armies and all the various uh the IRGC, the Artesh, I think it's called, the main army, and then you've got the the the the one that focuses on domestic security. um they are massive and there there's no way even if it's not the Kurds the Kurds and other militias other separatist groups like the Azaris and the Beluchi if they all come together it's still not enough to be able to um replace the regime or take on the regime. I think you'd agree with that statement but I I then how do you make sense of what's happening with the arming of the Kurds with the alleged arming of the Kurds? the the reason I'm laughing. Okay, so I go back uh let's go back to 1986. I take over as the Honduran analyst in a war in Central America where we're backing the Contras. The Contras were going to take over Nicaragua. Uh they got involved with drug trafficking. Uh it was a failure and a lot of those contras there were two there sort of two groups of them. There were there were some legitimate compinos, you know, poor farmers that really felt that their land had been taken unfairly by the Sandinistas. They were fighting and then you had the old sort of establishment crew, the Somosistas. Uh, and we backed both and and it didn't turn out well for them. Uh, at the same time as we were doing that, we were backing the Mujahadin in Afghanistan to carry out attacks against the Soviets to drive the Soviets out. Now what happened to all of those the the the mooj that we backed? Well, they turned into the Taliban and then all of a sudden we were not happy with the Taliban. So uh but what what we did do is we took some of those that we trained and sent them into Cheschna to uh try to break up the the the the Russian government. Uh and that was a 10-year civil war that Russia won at great cost, but but it won. So I I guess I turn the question around and say, can can you show me one of these groups that we've ever funded, going back to Vietnam that uh have succeeded in taking over a country and turning out to be a political security asset for the United States, not once. >> I can give you I can give you examples though where that strategy led to a failed state, Syria, Libya, Iraq. And that's what worries me. >> That's what worries me. Well, the the difference the difference here with Iran is, you know, Syria, if you will, was sort of a madeup country, as is Jordan. You know, these these were not these were not centuries millennial old societies, Persia is, Iran is. >> Yeah. Plus, Iran's relationships now with Russia and China uh have grown in strategic importance and been accompanied by uh very uh solid actions on the part of both Russia and China to boost the economy uh of Iran. Now, look, Iran's going to they're they're going to suffer and they're going to take casualties through this without a doubt. But you know what? The United States is not getting off cost free. Now, we we don't have our cities burning, at least not yet. But the what Donald Trump was hoping for economically, uh, is it it's now in the trash. >> What What do you mean not yet? When you say about the US, there's no one that could strike the US right now. >> Russia could, China could, uh, North Korea could, >> but North Korea. >> Yeah. >> North Korea has capacity to distract the US. >> Uhhuh. >> Yeah. But the missile the missiles able to reach the US mainland without being intercepted. >> Well, yeah. What are what are we going to intercept them with? I mean, you know, seriously, the United States does not have uh an established air defense system like Russia does. I mean, Russia's got the S400, S500, S550. It has a it has it it Russia has actually devoted its time to trying to to defeat a ballistic missile. We got the Patriot and the THAAD. That's it. Those are the high-end those are the high-end items we got. So, um you know the they tout the Eegis missile system. You know, there there's some limitations on that. So, it's just uh the United States has been living in a fantasy. We've been fortunate that with the protection of the oceans of the Atlantic and the Pacific, we've never really faced a threat at which other countries inflicted incredible damage on us. We've done the damage to ourselves in the American Civil War back in the 1860s that that we lost over 600,000 Americans in that. Since then, you know, we our our total combat casualties in World War II were less than 300,000. Uh we had another about 160 170,000 that uh died out of accidents and sickness, but I'm talking actual combat casualties. Uh similarly much much uh smaller numbers in World War I. Uh Vietnam 58,000, South Korea, the Korean War 55,000. You have Iraq and Afghanistan combined less than 5,000. So, you know, we've never really paid a price. That's why, man, all we find out is these wars, we make a lot of money off of it. Exactly. People do. >> Exactly. >> This is the world. This is what [clears throat] worries me. Like we're moving to a world, I did a tweet just before this interview. I said we've moved into a world where any country that does not have a very advanced and capable military is going to be bullied by the big guys. And the big guys, not just the US, all the powerful militaries out there. This is the world we live in because I think the technological advancements that we have right now are making such a big difference between the countries the halves and the don't haves or the have nots >> and with the advent of AI and there's a few few you know Naval Ravakan talks about it with the advent of AI and drones it allows a small country Israel as an example a small country to have massive capabilities where the size of a country and their military and their air force is not really that important, that significant anymore. So, we are moving into a new new age of warfare. >> Yeah. No, you're absolutely right. And and the Navy, you know, the US, one of the cornerstones of US international ability to project force, aircraft carriers, man, those are sitting ducks now. >> Yeah. And and so you look the the other aspect though is who has the both the resources necessary to produce explosives and the and have the rare earth minerals that go into these weapon systems. It's no longer the United States. And in fact, we've already seen the F-35A, the the the fifth generation fighter. It's being deployed without its advanced radar in the nose cone because China is not sending out allowing the United States for those rare earth minerals needed to produce the radars. >> I wasn't aware since >> Oh yeah, look. Yeah, look that up. >> The the trade war recently. >> Yeah. In fact, that >> I'm not going to look I'm not going to look up things you say, Larry. It's all you're turning out right with everything so far. I'm going to stop. I learned I learned long long ago if I lie and make stuff up, my credibility goes down to the toilet. >> No, it's not about lying. It's just your memory is so good. You you seem to have a very very good memory memorizing things. But the [clears throat] point you've just made right now is probably exactly why Iran's become so important. Is that >> China's chokeold on rare earths puts the US at a massive disadvantage in that race that's happening and that arms race that's happening. in the US's response is to have some sort of choke hold on energy which the US is still a leader with the with the gas and oil that it has. So this is what makes Iran such an important um strategic um you know country for the US. But >> you know Trump must have might have miscalculated and the way it was approached is not looking good. Like you know they there's been a lot of reports that they expected Iran to fall within a few days and every day that passes is the day Iran is winning because the choke the the straight of Homos is still closed and the energy market is still suffering. Yeah. And and and that's not I don't think that's going to turn around anytime soon. Now you you know maybe the United States will pull off some miracle and Iran will suddenly collapse. You know that could happen. But again I I base a lot of this upon I look back over the history of the last 25 years because we have example after example of what you know the US had ground forces in Iraq and we still couldn't control Iraq. We had ground forces in Afghanistan after 20 years. We couldn't control Afghanistan. And now all of a sudden we're going to control Iran that is, you know, four times the size of Iraq. And we couldn't handle Iraq. And yet we're now going to manage Iran when Iran's got a far more sophisticated uh system of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, uh, and then they hold strategic strategic points. I, you know, >> it sounds catastrophic like the US just depleted [clears throat] based on what you're saying. Unless we see like an Assad like collapse in Iran, as you just said, unless something significantly changes, Russia's gotten stronger, oil prices are up, >> the US munitions are depleted even further. Gulf nations are not too happy with the US right now. They've the US has just brought instability to the region and these are very important allies. And the energy market, even if the war ends today, I've spoken to a few energy experts. Even if the war ends today, as you've said, LG takes weeks and other, you know, all these refineries are shutting off because they don't have enough storage facilities for the oil they're producing that they can't ship because the straight is closed. >> So to all these refiners will be closed and started them up. It will take a long time. >> Let let me ask you a question. Did do you know that uh Emirati billionaire that sent that letter? >> I did. I posted about it. Yeah, I did. I did. the Alhapur something something Al Hapur he was pissed off with Trump I'll put it I was he was so upset it was a shocking tweet I was so tweet I was so surprised when I saw it >> um >> because he's he he wouldn't you know I don't know that for a fact but there it is here let me put it up wow it got >> it went viral got six million views on that one >> when I posted it so people people understand how significant it is but let me just read that quickly what for the people that don't know and Lisa if you could on screen. The one I've just sent you, he says the following. It's a know clip. I won't read the whole thing. Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield? Al-Habur there. He's a massive billionaire. He has a massive palace just a few minutes from where I am now. It's not too far off. Um he's also a former diplomat and an outspoken political voice in the Gulf. His questions, he asked the following questions to Trump. Was this your decision or Netanyahu's pressure? Did you calculate collateral damage before firing? I don't understand though one thing, Larry, is how >> they acted surprised when Iran struck all these Gulf nations. Yes, >> Iran warned from the beginning that they will, this is their strategy. They warned that if they if the US strikes Iran, they will bring the Gulf into it. They said there's here it is. Iran planned the exact response months ago and warned everyone that was coming through Oman. Larani passed a letter to the US via Oman before the February talks warning Iran would quote no longer respond respond proportionally and would react aggressively and he talks about how it would target other Gulf nations. So you cannot act surprised. Um and then you can see the the letter here where he's just uh uh going apeshit on Trump. >> Yeah. I mean it was when I saw that I thought uh I think he's reflecting some not just his own feelings. I think he's reflecting some sentiment of others in the Gulf that have paid they paid, you know, big money. You know, Trump Trump is taking advantage of these folks and maybe they're finally waking up that they're being scammed because his board of peace. >> Yeah. >> He starts a war. I mean, he has literally he started I would call this World War II. he has started it and uh you know you're right because they're e Europe is trying to sort of get into it but I think they're hesitant because they are so economically vulnerable now and they don't have an alternative for fuel they don't have an alternative for liquid natural gas and Putin piled on and says you know what they don't want my gas they're going to penalize us next year we're not going to wait till next year we'll cut them off now you know wait a second the what what alternative do they have? So uh and and the US production of certain weapon systems is going to be constrained going forward because of the Chinese restrictions and the Chinese and Russians are happily happily helping Iran with intelligence information. In fact, what's it's ironic to listen to the the bleeding uh you know bling bleeding like a sheep uh crying from the United States over oh that's not fair. Russia's helping Iran with intelligence. Well, what the hell have we been doing to Russia via Ukraine? >> Yeah. >> For more than four and a half years. And uh the the German word for it is I think Shoden Freuda. >> Um just now as well, Quake reports of impacts at the Quake Aviation Fueling Company reportedly targeted by missiles and drones. Not just drones, missiles and drones. >> Yeah. Salman port and manama Bahrain was targeted in the strikes and a large fire has broken out on the Bahrain Ministry of Interior. Holy Yeah. Well, Iran said, "You hit us, we'll hit you." And you know, the United States isn't listening. The US is going to wind up I I think, and again, I could be wrong, but I think Iran's got enormous leverage when it comes to a negotiated end of the settlement. And I think one of their demands should be and maybe will be that they're not going to lift the blockade on the street of Hormuz until the economic sanctions that have been leveled on Iran are lifted. Period. And they may even demand that the Palestinians be given free access to Egypt. >> Question. Um, as we wrap this, how how do you think the Middle East will look like? What will cuz what will the the Gulf nations are also pissed at Iran for striking them. >> Iran is pissed at everybody if the regime survives which I think it will survive this. >> Um this the the region will never be the same. And people said that after October 7th you remember how analysts said after October 7th the region will never be the same. >> That was even an understatement back then. >> Yeah. This is um in a way this I think the result of this will be to break the colonial hold that the west has had held over the middle east you know going back a hundred years. You know, we go back to Sykes Pico where they carved up, you know, it created Jordan creates Syria, a different kind of Syria. Iraq is sort of cobbled together. Uh, you know, the the if you will, the ancient empire really there apart from Egypt is is Iran. Uh I I actually think it's more likely that as as the the defeat of the United States in this instance will lead Iran and Egypt to reconcile and start working together more closely. Uh I think it's you're going to see a dramatic reduction in what in the US influence in the region and uh >> yeah I think Israel's in trouble. I think Israel's very existence its economic existence is imperiled. It can't keep the this it's it suffered more damage in a week. Uh you know, if you go to Instagram, there's that's one of the few social media posts that's still showing the damage that's being done in Tel Aviv. It's significant. Uh Stannislav Kpivic, who I'm sure you know, you talked to. Staz has been monitoring some other social media that's not being repressed by by the Israeli sensors. and and he he described it as, you know, Tel Aviv is getting the Gaza treatment and and it and that's what it looks like. Parts parts of Tel Aviv now look like Gaza in terms of destroyed buildings and rubble. >> And you think Gulf nations will move away from their alliance with Israel? >> Yes. Yeah. I mean, what's in it for them? I mean, it's not like Israel's sitting on a pile of gold it can give them. Israel is not some massive market of consumers that they're going to, oh, we want to consume what you produce. Uh that this, you know, I think if for their own survival and I think the survival instinct will kick in first in Bahrain where you've got an 80% Shia population, maybe as high as 90%. U and and it's not it's not like the Saudis or the Emiratis or the Qataris are governments based on a popular mandate with the public largely supporting it because you know they're you know great Democrats or great great leaders. You know these are these are just wealthy families that have been able to consolidate their power and I think the events that are unfolding are going to jeopardize that. Um, Larry, I know we're meant to rap, but uh just before we wrap, I just want to show the audience the Gulf is getting hammered right now. Uh, just now Shahad drone just impacted an apartment that's housing um uh American soldiers. I'm just going to put it on screen for you just to give you an idea. But I was just talking to to to someone close to me and I was just telling her like it seems to be quieting right now and um the attacks have been quieting especially after comment by the president. If anything, this is the video while the team puts it up on screen. That's just a drone going with no air defense whatsoever in Bahrain. >> There you go. Here you go. >> Yeah. Here you go. Go through. And there's impact. Wow. And that's just a drone. And we talked about missiles, Larry. We didn't even talk about the ease of, we talked about it previously, the ease of producing those drones in factories, in apartments, underground in in mountainous regions, and popping up those factories very quickly. The drones are very cheap and easy to produce. You can't you can destroy the launchers maybe, and obviously you've put a lot of doubt on that. And based on the New York Times report that came out while we're speaking, apparently, you're right. Um, the drones are even harder. The drone factories are even harder to destroy because they're easy to produce. >> Yeah. I mean, look, look, Russia's been trying to destroy them in Ukraine and Ukraine's still cranking them out and Russia's got far more firepower and and they don't have to fly as far. Uh, so I just, you know, it's recognition. There are limits to military power and the military power has got to be accompanied by some political and economic force. And in this case, uh, while things look dire for Iran a week ago, uh, I think they are they're executing, uh, a military plan of resistance that the United States did not anticipate and is not prepared is not prepared really to handle. >> Yeah, Larry, absolute pleasure as always, sir. Thank you so much for your time. >> Hey, I appreciate you staying up so late, but you're still young. You can you can handle that. You don't need sleep like this old man. [laughter] >> Thank you, man. I appreciate it, brother. >> All right. You take care. Have a good morning.

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