THE IRAN WAR JUST TURNED INTO A NIGHTMARE | Larry C. Johnson

Um, Larry, I I I think what we're seeing right now is a very different war than we we've seen before in the Middle East, right? We see a tremendous amount of disinformation that's now coming out from the Trump administration. I think we [clears throat] really see the Trump administration trying to scramble and trying to save face, trying to basically cover their tracks up. Uh, but I I really feel that the American public here are are certainly not behind this war at all. Both the Republicans and Democrats, I think. So, I think that Donald Trump really has a very long road ahead of him. Would you agree with that in trying to uh in trying to win this war? I mean, how could he possibly be able to turn this into a victory in the future with with what's going on? >> Okay. Are you old enough to remember George HW Bush and his famous promise in 1988? Read my lips. >> No, I wasn't. >> Read my He said, "Read my lips. No new taxes." >> Okay. >> Got elected. Yes. >> And he he won the first Gulf War against Saddam. >> People yay cheering George W. Bush. And what did he George HW Bush and what he did was he raised taxes. >> He then got his ass kicked in the next election, >> right? >> His popularity plummeted, >> right? >> Well, what was Donald Trump saying in the 2024 campaign? Uh, no wars. >> He he he said he said, "I'm the first president in modern times to start no new wars." He said at the Republican National Commit convent Con convention in July of 2024. He said, "My foreign policy is going to bring stability to the world." And then repeatedly at all the different rallies he says,"I promise to turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of neverending wars. I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars." He's now politically dead. >> He is now politically radioactive. Uh I will predict now and hold hold me to it. >> Yeah. that in in November the Republicans will lose not only the House of Representatives, they'll lose control of the Senate and Donald Trump will be impeached and I believe Donald Trump will be convicted and he will be the the the second president since Richard Nixon. >> Yeah. >> To be forced from office. >> I I honestly I honestly feel the same to be honest, Larry. I just I don't see how he could survive this politically. I I think that the it's a very different situation than in 2003 when you know the Iraq war happened and you know there was a very successful PR campaign from the US government really trying to convince US citizens that [clears throat] hey this is what we needed to do. Most Americans were on board with that saying yes I believe you. We we we know this to be true. We have to support our troops. Um I mean obviously we support our troops and and we don't want to see our troops lose their lives but we certainly don't want to see our country go to another long-standing war in the Middle East. Well, and uh you know, so you are old enough to remember the what what the political mood was in the United States on September 10th, 2001, >> right? >> And what it was on September 12th, 2001. What what happened in those 48 hours? Well, after the attack on 911, the partisan differences, the Republican versus Democrat versus independent sort of melted away. >> People were focused on patriot. we're Americans. We've been attacked. We're going to stand together. >> That's exactly what's happening now in Iran. >> That they have been attacked brutally from the outside. They were negotiating, they thought, in good faith. They were make making concessions. >> They weren't telling the United States, "Hell no." They were saying, "Absolutely. We had the on Thursday, we've had the best progress yet and look forward to the discussions on Monday that were going to be held and instead the United States launches this sucker punch of an attack uh just like the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor >> right >> in in December 7th, 1941. And in the process, we murdered, the United States murdered 165 girls between the ages of six and 12. >> Yeah. Incredible. You know, this is so sad. >> And And you're And you're proud to be an American. I'm not. I'm ashamed to be an American to do that. Ashamed. And I say that one as as someone who's got I have 20 28 ancestors that fought in the American Revolution. So I come at this with a longstanding love for this country. But when we act like a bunch of murderous thugs, which we are, then don't be surprised that you know we say, "Well, these why do those Iranians chant they death to America? What have we done to them?" Well, let me tell you what we've done to them. Before these latest attacks back in 1980, we encouraged Saddam Hussein to start a war with Iran. Saddam did. Next thing you know, I maybe you've seen the pictures, maybe you haven't. Don Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein, right? And what was Don Rumsfeld doing? Well, we were making sure that Saddam Hussein's troops had the precursor chemicals needed to make chemical weapons, weapons of mass destruction. We're providing that. And then using those weapons of mass destruction, Iraq was responsible for the deaths of 300,000 minimum 300,000 Iranians, >> right? >> And and we wonder why Iran chanced death to America. Hell, when ISIS just killed less than 4,000 people, we were wanting death to ISIS and anybody else who dared support him, >> right? >> So, I guess the American public has been has been lied to so much, so repeatedly with, you know, this claim that Iran's the number one sponsor of terrorism. Absolutely not true. Probably not true. But, you know, that's the story we're told that they've killed thousands of Americans. That's not true. But we use that to justify going in and doing to the Iranians what we claim that we they've done to us. >> It's it's so sad. I I agree with you. I mean, you and I are both US citizens. I mean, just uh uh it's really hard it's hard to process, you know, it's really hard to process to see our government act like this. And I, you know, Larry, I want to tap into your knowledge, you know, your extreme, you know, many, you know, decades of tactical study and and, you know, learning all of these missions and things like that. I want to know a little bit more about, uh, you know, what makes this war so difficult to fight and, you know, really some more of the insights into, for example, some of the missiles that Iran has and how this war is going to be playing out as far as the equipment that both sides have and what's going on on the battlefield. Because I think what I've seen is I've seen that the United States is launching million-doll missiles, but Iran is able to combat those with, you know, $50,000 drones or something like that. You know, there's a very big discrepancy there. So, tell us a little bit more on that. Well, uh, basically the United States is try is fighting an air war, uh, with with with, uh, fixedwing aircraft and some missiles launched from those aircraft and maybe a few launched from uh, submarines and or destroyers. But the the problem we face and again go through history. You can't point since since World War II, [snorts] the US military starting with the Army Airore had this fantasy that we could drop enough bombs that we could win a war. >> Never been the case. You look at all the bombs we dropped on Iraq during the first Gulf War and then during the second G second war in 2003, we had to send in ground troops to be able to carry it out. So, um, and don't get taken over by the current media reports about, oh, we blew this up. Oh, we've blown that up. Oh, they've hit this overnight in Thran. Simply look at the war that's been going on in Ukraine. The attacks that Russia has carried out for the last four years. Hundreds of missile and drone strikes a day. Hundreds >> over, you know, probably at least 300 days. So, we're talking tens of thousands of missile strikes. And what has happened? Has that caused Ukraine to completely collapse and give up militarily? No. >> Right >> now, I believe Russia's going to win that one. But my point is use that as a benchmark, as a standard of comparison in terms of how much actual destruction can be visited upon a country and how they are able to endure. So right now the United States initially deployed its uh seven wing seven squadrons of F F-35 uh combat aircraft fifth generation. Uh they deployed some of them to the Prince Sultan field in in Saudi Arabia [snorts] and others to the Moafik Alsalti field airfield in Jordan. Since the start of the operation on Saturday morning Iran time, uh both of those airfields have been attacked by Iran and the aircraft previously stationed there have had to relocate to somewhere else. But understand that the distances they have to travel require a minimum of two to three air refueling stops before they're actually able to get in position to launch a missile, an airto ground missile or a tomahawk cruise missile, whatever is being launched from those platforms or or a JDAM is another. So uh here's the United States. We we can't introduce troops. To to introduce troops, you normally when you're attacking a defending force, you need a 3 to one advantage minimum. Iran has 500,000 soldiers spread between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian Army. So that means we need 1.5 million. Our current army total worldwide is 472,000. and add in probably another 110,000 Marines, >> we're we're barely above, you know, 500 600,000. >> So, we would we would be more than a year trying to round up troops to to match that uh to have the numbers to go into Iran. So, we can't do a g ground invasion at all. And we try to do it through proxies like Kurdish uh insurgents, they're going to get wiped out. Uh so uh we how about our naval power? M well um want you to recall that last March with Operation Rough Rider, we had two aircraft carriers off the coast of Yemen, they're accompanied by five destroyers. And the reason they're accompanied by destroyers, those destroyers put up a defensive screen of missiles uh to bring to defeat anything inbound to attack the ships, >> right? problem with that is the those each of those destroyers can carry potentially up to 96 air defense missiles. And this is where we get into the math and the capabilities you were talking about in your question. >> But for every inbound uh bogey that's coming to attack a US ship, you're going to fire a minimum of two uh air defense missiles. And that's that's whether you're talking Eegis or THAAD, the the theater high altitude area defense weapon or the Patriot missile, at least two, sometimes more. Well, once those are fired out of a destroyer, that tube's empty. And the only way you can reload it is you have to sell to a nearby port where they've got the cranes and they've got the actual munitions stored there so you can reload them. Wow. >> So, you know, this is not during World War II when our battleships and destroyers when they ran out of ammunition, you had an oiler, a ship pulled up next to it. Think of it as a floating uh price club or or BJ's. If if it draws up, it's got everything on it, food and and and sanitary items and water and munitions. and they would reload and then they they didn't have to leave leave this battle scene at all. Now they do and with the destruction of that naval facility in Bahrain, they no longer have access to that. Plus, they'd get caught trapped by this the shuttering of the straight of Hermoose. They were also trying to build one in Muscat uh in Oman and that's you know that's ineffective now. So the nearest place is Diego Garcia and that's under British control. And then you get then you get into the production issues for the United States. We we manufacture between 6 and 800 Patriot missiles a year. >> Wow. >> When you realize that you're going to fire at least two per attack and Iran on on Saturday fired 140 missiles. Do the math. That's 280 Patriot missiles. >> Wow. >> So right there you're at a what? 35% of annual production in just one day gone. >> Jeez. >> And so if this continues, >> wow, >> over 3 weeks at that same level, the United States supply of air defense missiles is going to be depleted as is Israel's. And then at that point, Iran's going to be able to fire at will at the different targets in Israel and what remains of US military targets uh in the Gulf Gulf States. to you a clip that I saw yesterday that just kind of shows you a little bit of the incompetence that we're seeing from the White House. Take a listen. >> Uh he said there is a plan. Uh he points to Venezuela as a template. Uh which means to me uh that going in they had some sense on the ground of uh what was coming next. >> Okay. I I actually I can give you breaking news on the Venezuela thing. >> Yeah. Uh, I know who brought this together. >> Okay. >> An old friend of mine. >> Uh, how did they do it? Remember there was a $50 million reward on the head of Maduro. >> Correct. >> Uh, so informants connected with DEA, one of whom was the chauffeur for Maduro, two others who were in his security detail. They were collaborating with the US government and they arranged by the this entire operation. It was done to get the reward money. >> That's where this originated. >> Wow. >> And and Trump, shame on him, has refused to pay the reward. >> Oh gosh. >> So, you got all these guys that cooperated and now they're getting stiffed. >> Wow. That is breaking news there. That story that story should uh come out. I know the my friend is going to give it to Katherine Herage I think. >> Okay. >> And uh she may break it in the next week or two. But that's that's how it happened. The the information that Delta Force got came through my friend and the these these sources these informants. Okay. So that's an So this is one more example >> where you know Trump is lying pretend making pretending that they did things in a certain way in Venezuela which they didn't. It was done it was entirely bought and paid for >> except he never paid off. >> He's like a bad slot machine. >> Jeez, that is crazy. Well, I appreciate you breaking that story. I mean I haven't heard that story um yet. So I mean hopefully they do break that news and it becomes uh you know nationwide that that all of America can understand that. But I think it speaks a lot, Larry, to just how incompetent the US government is right now and the leaders that are making the decisions because if they think that Venezuela it would be if they think that Iran is going to be exactly like Venezuela, just this walk in the park, we're going to capture Maduro and then off you go. And then obviously we we've gone one step further. You know, we've assassinated Ayatollah, you know, caused a significant amount of deaths as you mentioned earlier with those school children that were unfortunately lost their lives in a military strike. I mean this has really enraged an entire nation and like you said you can understand why they chant these certain slogans against the United States. I mean it's based on what our government has done to them and it is just really really unfortunate. >> Yeah. No, it it is um you know when you go back and reconstruct the history of the relations between the United States and Iran again, we always we always tell it from the standpoint that we're the victim that here we were minding our own business and they just attacked us out of nowhere. Uh we blame Iran for the bombing of the US embassy in Beirut in April May of 1983 followed by the October bombing of the Marine barracks or the building in which they were housed in Beirut killed 241 Marines. M [clears throat] >> we ignore the fact that we had deployed battleships to the region that those battleships were shelling Shia villages in the Bau Valley and killing Shia men, women and children >> and that there were already existing political movements that had nothing to do with Iran. We frequently blamed Hezbollah for that attack in 1983, but it wasn't Hezbollah. Alistister Crook was on the ground then a British intelligence officer um but described as a British diplomat but he was he was a British intelligence. >> Yeah. >> Uh he said he said the ones that carried it out was this group called Amal AMA. Well, Amal was created organized in 1972. Huh. 7 years before Iran even existed. So, this was a Shia movement that predated Iran and they're the ones that carried out the attack. Killed Marines. Uh, and but why did they kill the Marines? Because we were there killing them. You know what? So, you know, let's put that out of the way. And then, as I mentioned earlier, we started the war. We helped Saddam Hussein start the war in against Iran by Iraq that killed, you know, hundreds of thousands of Iranians. Uh when we went into uh Iraq in 2003, we discovered this group called the Mujahedin Alcal MEK and they were a notorious they were described as Marxist Islamists. Now, I don't even know how that, you know, that's like talking about a transgender dog or something, >> but uh uh they immediately got put under the wing of the CIA >> and [clears throat] even though they were listed on State Department's list as a foreign terrorist organization because they had carried out frequent terrorist attacks, attacks against civilians for political purposes. Uh they started receiving CIA support and protection. CIA then moved them to Albania and then used them to carry out attacks inside Iran. And in 2012, uh, the Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State had them removed from the list as terrorists as terrorists. They got to be, you know, friends of the United States. [snorts] And so we have this habit, long habit of working with the radical Islamic Sunni terrorist groups. We just did it in Syria again with this guy Al-Shara who used to be known as Al Galani, head of Hayat Al-Shem, had actually carried out terrorist attacks, chopping heads off of people because he was a quot a devout Sunni. >> Wow. >> And it was Iran that was fighting in Syria against ISIS, against al-Qaeda. Those are the ones that attacked us on 911. Here's Iran fighting against them. And we claim Iran as the enemy. I mean, it's it's so screwed up. It makes no sense. And yet, the American public have continually been gaslit with this nonsense that Iran represents this major threat to us. when the reality is they would have they should have been one of our best allies in the region. Much more trustworthy than the Saudis and the Qataris and the Amiradis who have been funding did fund the very terrorists that attacked us on 9/11, >> right? >> You can't make this stuff up. >> It's it's it's hard to really it's hard to really believe all of this, you know, and just to see how how gross the incompetence has been. Yeah, again, this is why I really love having you on the show because [clears throat] you bring in so many years of incredible insight and in just a great knowledge of this. So, Larry, I have a question for you. I mean, you know, if you were still advising the CIA and the US military, which I wish you were because I think we'd be in a much better position, but what what is what would your strategy be right now for the future as far as where we are in this? Because I think like we mentioned at the start of this, I think Donald Trump has found himself that he's opened a can of worms that he had no idea what was inside that can and I think he has bitten off a lot more than he can chew. Where does the United States go from here? How do they actually, you know, you know, basically, you know, end this threat? I mean, is there where's the exit ramp here is my question. >> Well, and let me uh in fairness to Donald Trump, this is not his plan. He's not driving the train. you know, he's not Case he's not Casey Jones, okay? Uh instead of saying that he's driving that train higho cocaine, no. Uh he's a passenger. >> Uh this train, you know, I'll call it the deep state train. And it's it's an alliance between uh senior bureaucrats in the intelligence community, in the military community, and then in the in the world of both finance and industry. And and it's it's really sort of a small it is a large relatively small group because what I'd say is you step back and say, what is it we're trying to accomplish? Well, instead of assuming that all these countries are out to screw us out of something, to take us over, to conquer us, the fact of the matter, we're the ones doing that. So, right now, as an example, one of the largest bases CIA stations in the world in terms of per capita number of CIA personnel assigned to a country in terms of the country's population is in Armenia. >> Why is Armenia? Well, Armenia sits in the caucuses. It is the one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, but it sits there also between Russia on the north, Iran on the south. >> And why does the CIA there running operations to destabilize Russia to the north, Iran to the south? So the the the CIA continues to have it its objective is to secure control of the oil and gas in Iran, cause the break up of Iran into smaller components, do the same to Russia, all with an eye ultimately to being able to corral and defeat China. That's the big plan. >> Now Trump, you know, he's just he's just a play. He thinks he's in charge and he's more like, you know, I don't know, when you were a kid, did you ever sit on your dad's lap or mom's lap while you're they're driving a car and they let you pretend like you were driving? That's Donald Trump. >> Yeah. He gets to imagine like, hey, look at me. I'm driving the car. >> You know, last year when he hosted Armenia and Aaraijan for this great peace agreement and he kept calling it Iberian >> and Albania, >> right? So he didn't even know who the hell he was meeting with, >> right? >> Because where did that meeting originated? That meeting originated with the CIA >> because of what the CIA is pursuing as part of its as part of its covert operations, covert actions. So that's where um you know going forward, we got to get we we need to start by dismantling the CIA. We need to break it down, burn it to the ground, start all over. >> Wow. because uh we need we need an organization that's not beholden to these outside interests and is is it general per his real purpose should have been produce information that the president absolutely needs to know in order to keep America safe not let's let's jin up information let's fabricate information that will compel the president to act in a certain way that'll serve our econ or or let's call it these bureaucratic financial interests without regard for what it does to America. >> Right. >> And that's what we've had endless war after endless war going back uh you know there's a book up on my shelf by Tim Winer Legacy of Ashes. It tells really the first uh history of the first 50 years of the CIA. And in that entire time all we're doing is trying to subvert other countries instead of trying to say how can we get along? How can we help them? How can we live together in a peaceful world? That's uh very sad. And I mean, we know that famous clip from Michael Pompeo when he was the director of the CIA who said, you know, we lied, we cheated, we stole. That was basically the playbook that I learned, you know, to become the director of the CIA. I'm so surprised that he would actually admit [clears throat] that on camera. Uh but it is a viral clip that has been shown many times. And of course, uh I mean, that's country is it's interesting. I do cover China quite a lot of my uh work here on YouTube. And I think that's a clip that's very famous in Chinese media because whenever, >> you know, we talk about the US government and the CIA and how the government works. They frequently bring up that clip and said, "Well, you know, we kind of know, you know, what's going on behind the scenes because it's it's, you know, we we never take what you say with truth because you guys are lying, stealing, and cheating." And, you know, you even admitted it when you were the director of the CIA. Uh, this is this is really crazy. Um, [clears throat] Larry, I have one more question I want to ask you uh for today's podcast and it really deals with um, you know, where the future of this is going and and how long of a war that you think that this could be prolonged. Um, I think that, you know, very similar to Iraq, you know, when, you know, I think it was done u when it was Dick Cheney, they asked him, "How long do you think this is going to be?" He said, "I'm very confident in our troops. I think that we can get this done in, you know, maybe weeks, not even months, you know, maybe days. It might stretch to weeks, but we're going to be in and out. Of course, that turned into a disaster. We've seen Afghanistan that has, you know, certainly 20 years of fighting on the ground. I think the key thing here that I want all of our listeners to understand is that there has never been a successful regime change launched by the United States simply by dropping bombs. You alluded to that earlier, right? You can't just launch an air mission. Um, what it does actually require is to have boots on the ground. I think the successful uh case study would probably be Germany back in 20ou, you know, back in World War II, but obviously that was World War II. There was a significant amount of effort there, the troops on the ground, a huge loss of American life obviously. Uh but we have not had any success in the Middle East at all. So what do you think as far as the timeline of this and and our efforts? Um if I if Iran can continue to sustain the launch of the missiles over the next three weeks uh they will deplete both Russian uh both Israeli and US supplies and if they continue to maintain control of the uh straight of Hormuz and the shutdown of maritime traffic out of the Persian Gulf uh is the the United States is going to be pleading for a And I can't dismiss the possibility the US would go hand in hand to China and Russia trying to say, "Hell, help, you know, we need we need to get this to an end." But that that puts Iran in a potentially very powerful negotiating position. I think one thing that they would likely demand upfront is you're going to lift all economic sanctions against Iran. Number one, >> right? Uh, I could see him also demanding that the Israelis abandon Gaza, get out of Gaza, allow the southern uh exit to be open to Egypt so that the normal trade and commerce between Egypt and Palestinians could take place, >> right? >> Uh, and and they may they may very well be in a position to dictate those kinds of terms. Uh I'm sure that they would also be willing to offer some concessions with respect to inspect, you know, if they continue with the religious mandate to not build a a nuclear weapon. What what I can't rule out is the the the new Ayatollah who will be confirmed soon. If he comes in and says, you know, we tried to live by God's law and it has resulted in all of these martyrs being made. So, we now need to, you know, find a religious justification. We need to protect ourselves in order uh to protect people so that they can do the will of God and Iran will quickly get a nuclear weapon. The very thing that we claim we wanted them to avoid doing, we will have triggered and made possible because you know we we killed the one guy who for 36 years has opposed building a nuclear weapon. You know >> that it was it was a K& religious edict that prevented Iran from building it. >> Now he's gone. And if his successor says no, we're not going down that path, boom, genie's out of the bottle. So, um I I think Trump is going to be faced with a stalemate or let's call it a stalemate because we we can't we don't have the troops to put it on the ground. We don't have the naval force to deploy because if it gets too close to the shore, it's likely to get, you know, uh sunk, >> right? And just today, Trump announced that uh you know he wants this wants the straight of Hermuz open you know making big threats and if not we're going to send in our US Navy to accompany those tankers. >> Boy suicide that would be >> sitting ducks sitting ducks you know Iran will blow them up in a heartbeat and without any regret. >> They would probably be salivating at the opportunity to do that. So Trump is Trump Trump likes to pretend he's the big tough guy and he's going to be exposed as being quite weak and having stupidly started a war that he couldn't finish and Iran Iran's going to make him uh you know eat that one you remember it was do you think that the United States according to reports over the weekend after the war started reached out to Italy to see if they could broker a ceasefire with Iran Iran on the promise that no we'd restart negotiations. Iran said no and hell no. >> Right. >> But why do you think Donald Trump was doing that? I mean, if he's winning as he says he is, we're winning. Big victory. We're do if if you're really defeating them, why take your foot off the their throat, >> right? You know, this is like saying, "Hey, we're up 48 to nothing in this football game and let's let's let's call a ceasefire. Let's call a timeout and just agree that we'll we'll we'll restart the game in some way so that there you guys aren't behind 48 to nothing." >> That doesn't happen, >> right? So, you know, when I saw that, I went, "Uhoh, it it's worse than we