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AddSportsCards · 30 views · 1 likes
Analysis Summary
Single-cause framing
Attributing a complex outcome to a single cause, ignoring the web of contributing factors. A clean explanation is more satisfying and easier to act on than a complicated one. Especially effective when the proposed cause is something you already dislike.
Fallacy of the single cause; Kahneman's WYSIATI principle
Worth Noting
Positive elements
- Provides a practical perspective on the risks of 'cracking' graded cards and the potential for hidden flaws in vintage paper stock.
Be Aware
Cautionary elements
- The use of personal 'OCD' and home-buying trauma to pathologize market behaviors he disagrees with.
Influence Dimensions
How are these scored?About this analysis
Knowing about these techniques makes them visible, not powerless. The ones that work best on you are the ones that match beliefs you already hold.
This analysis is a tool for your own thinking — what you do with it is up to you.
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Transcript
What's up, YouTube? Definitely hasn't been a while. Um, I got a big package back from the Ryan Foundation, which I'm excited about. So, uh, I thought I'd make a video, some pickups, and then, uh, my thoughts on a a recent sale on a Jackie Robinson, which I thought was ridiculous. Uh, so pickups. Um, I can't believe these are considered vintage, but uh, I wish I bought more from this guy, but there's a Moses Malone, if you know. You know, this guy was a beast. um pretty good shape as well as a Clyde Drexler from 86. I'm hoping to get this one autographed and this one actually looks really nice. Um really little flaws on this one. So this is a great purchase and if you don't know Dom Msi the ear man from 55. This one looked really good as well. Um pretty clean and I paid off for this one. 55 L allkine second year from Tops. Um, once I got it in hand, I was pretty happy. I was a little regretting like what I paid for it. I I definitely paid up for a raw version, but I'm glad now that I got it in hand. And I don't know why I bought the this specific lot. Um, these are my first ever Kabooms. So, Emtt Smith and Troy Palamalu. I I specifically bought it for the Palamalu. Um I remember watching a game where K Carrie Collins was hiking the ball or getting the ball. Um and just as he got the ball, Palamalu just came out of nowhere, flew over the O line, tackled him, he was able to read the snap count and risked going offside/ encroachment. Um this guy was a beast. There's definitely better Evan Smith cards, but uh this came in a lot, so I had to go for it. So, I'm in this football kick. So, some cool stuff. And the big card that I got, super excited from the Ryan Foundation, my OPI, Nolan Ryan, Jerry Kuzzman. I bought this in June at the end of June. Um it took a couple weeks. Well, I sent it to PSA. PSA first, came back miscut. So, I decided to go through the gauntlet of sending it via TTM to Jerry Kuzzman. Got it back pretty quickly with his awesome autograph. It's definitely a little bit shaky. Um Nolan Ryan is definitely running on PSA timelines. I sent it at the end of August and got it back just today. Um so that's what just under 23 weeks give or take. But I'm super happy. I'm not sure what to do if I should drop it off at Fanatics Fest or the National or just send it to CGC, but one or the other. Um, but yeah, this is I'm not a big autograph guy, but this is pretty cool. Just going through the whole gamut of sending it, getting back, sending it, getting back, and now sending it on for grading. So, cool stuff. Okay, the the Jackie Robinson Leaf 1948 PSA 1, that thing sold for just under 30K, but post sales tax probably around 30K. If you live in New York, whoever bought it, um, if they were from New York, they paid over 30K in my opinion. So, I'm not saying you should you shouldn't overpay for cards. I think you should pay more for a card if it looks great. I mean, I paid a ton of money for this LK line because it looked great, but the amount that this person person's bid on the card was just you could have bought a high efficiency Honda. What do Honda Accords go for? I I have no idea. But 30K, that is insane. That's 4 to 7x the comp of what they've been going for. Excuse me. Um, and that's bad news for anyone looking for a 48 leaf Jackie Robinson in a in a PSA 1 or authentic, but if I if I had to make a comparison. So, if if you're buying a home, so the home that I bought, um, the exterior wasn't that great. Um, it had some flaws in it, but the interior was good. It was it was functioning. The plumbing was great. The electrical was great. Um, and it has like I'll post a picture here, but um, the exterior had some stained glass. Unfortunately, we live in a historical district and we can't get rid of it, unfortunately. Um, although there's some trees growing just right outside of it and we've been letting them grow. Hopefully, uh, mother nature can do its course and maybe do something about those windows. But I'll let's be quiet about that. Um, yeah, regardless, like you can have this great home and let's say you have an inspector that checks it and he says it's great. It checks off everything, looks good. Um, that's the point of having like a third party representative. And I know PSA kind of has like a scarlet letter on them, but I do think we have to take some of their technical grading to an expertise to some extent. Um, it looks great the card, but is it worth four to seven? I would call almost five to sixx. Uh, whoever paid for that card. Is it worth it? Maybe to them. Like, if they have a ton of money, if they collect Jackie Robinson's, then, you know, no issue. But if you have an inspector, you're looking for a home. The outside look great, the outside looks great, the interior is good, the plumbing is good, chimney has no flu issues. Um, you know, everything about the home is great. But then he says, "But the basement has a crack in the foundation. It could continue to grow and we notice there is an oil tank. We don't know what's going on with the oil tank. Could be leaking or gas or radon meter showing that there is some some type of like gas in the air downstairs. Would you pay for that home?" Like I I surely wouldn't. We we overpaid for our home. That's kind of the the area that we live in. But if your home inspector, so excuse me, aka PSA, gave it a lower grade because of those issues. I wouldn't pay that much. Um, and those issues would scare me. Um, as a reference, I once bought like a Hank Aaron from I can't remember if it was 1963, 64, 65, but it was a PSA 1. And the case looked really, really, really nice. Decided to crack it because I said there's no way this Hanker deserved a one in that PSA case. So, as an example, this Trey Young, maybe Trey Young's not the best example. He's the most shield player, but looks good in the front, looks good in the back. Like, is it worth grading? I remember cracking out that handkerch. And when I cracked it out, just similar to this Trey Young, I opened it up and I said, "Oh, it looks good." But minus there's this issue where it's like completely cracking on the on the uh the corner. You wouldn't see that unless you cracked it open. and kind of similar to that Jackie Robinson. And I'm not saying very low likelihood that that Jackie has like an issue like this, but and the hanker that I used to uh open and crack, but if it did, you're this would b really bug me. I have OCD. Um, and I think someone overpaid. All in all, I'm not saying not to overpay for high eye appeal, but you could get burned if you have OCD um and you care about these little things. I guess what I'm saying is just be careful with what you purchase um and how it looks on the exterior. I know you may hate PSA, maybe you love PSA, but I do think if it's a PSA 1 and it looks like an A, there may be a small pinhole, which isn't a big issue, but you should just take that into consideration. And whoever paid for that, in my opinion, and maybe this is kind of a hot take and people may disagree with me, especially in the vintage community, but someone overpaid.
Video description
1986 fleer returns, 1955 Topps buys and 1968 #nolanryan auto return. Be careful with high eye appeal #vintagebaseballcard Recent 1948 #jackierobinson sale oof