IRAN IS CONSERVING MISSILES?! - US Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatowski

everybody that's it's there's a battle of narrative going on at the same time in all wars. So I don't know. I'm sure the Iranians though because they have prepared for a long I mean I think the general assessment is they have prepared for a long time and they have prepared to survive. They have to survive. It's an existential situation I think in the view of most Iranians. So they've prepared for a long fight and so they may be conserving what they have. the the intention I think the strategy we saw this to some extent with in in June is to use the older the cheaper uh munitions to expend the air defenses on the Israeli side on the American side and so they were doing that um and then of course we are hitting obviously we must be hitting something something beyond painted helicopters on the tarmacs I mean I think we're doing we're actually doing serious damage But um it's hard to say. I I because this war is so much more important and so much more rational from the Iranian perspective. They were attacked. They are being their leader was killed. Their religious leader was killed. Um they're being their cities are being attacked. I mean this is almost like a total war. It's only day five and yet we've already gone to uh you know let's blow up the cities where the people live. So this is serious for Iran and I think they're probably um harboring and and preserving some of what they have. On the other hand, as they look at what they've done to uh the western uh supplies of of missile defense and air defense, they've got to be happy. They've got to be happy. We don't have we have at most and I think you've probably had guests on that know more detail about um how much we have but um it's been reported even in the western media maybe two and a half more weeks that we have supplies for and this is not not all in theater this is this is saying uh none no more for Ukraine all the NATO allies cough up what they still have and then what what do we have in the Pacific theater bring it in so two and a half weeks we use up everything that we have I I think uh uh Iran's plan could very well be to ensure they're they keep shooting at drones and few things and then when they're totally vulnerable which that is the direction that we are going in um they they bring out what they've got. I can't say for sure. I know they have very sheltered they have this idea of underground drone cities and underground you know launcher cities. Um, I think they're very capable and and the weird thing to me is if I think that and I don't I'm not an Iranian expert, but if I think that from what I've read, how come the Pentagon and how come pre the president has not been advised um correctly and accurately as to, you know, the situation, the comparable situation, the the varying the different tactics and strategies that they use that we use. I mean, it's as if our assumptions were totally out of a comic book. >> Yeah. There's there's even there's even Israeli media, I saw it earlier, talking about how the killing of Kame might have been a strategic mistake. I saw that a couple of hours ago. Um, and obviously now we know cuz the person that's being potentially replacing him is even more of a hardliner. And we see people not going on the streets against the regime, people going on the streets in support of the regime. Um, could be because protesters are too scared to go out because the regime has warned them that they'll be dealt with even more violently than they were dealt with in January. So maybe it's a sense of fear as well or a rally around the flag or both. >> Yeah. >> But also we have um talking about the munition stockpiles. I'm sure you've seen the reports that potentially the US could be taking munitions out of South Korea. sorry, some of the air defense systems, the third missile systems from South Korea into the region. And there's rumors, talks, I don't know who reported it, that um they'd be trying to request some of that air defense systems they gave to Ukraine, the amunitions they gave to Ukraine to get some of it back because of the um stockpile depletion. I don't think it's that extreme, but I definitely think it is a serious issue, especially if the US wants to be ready for a potential unification between China and Taiwan. The US is militarily and everyone I spoke to, even people that are very they despise Iran, very critical of Iran, they also admit that there is a munitions issue. All analysts on both side of the debate agree on that problem. Um, and this is why I do believe the story of this was planned for 4 days and it ended up where we are today because of multiple mistakes. My question to you, Colonel, is what's next? Because I've brought it up a few times to a few guests. The arming of Kurdish militia. Now Conrias from the IDF told me Mario I he thought even Jonathan Conrius former IDF spokesperson he even thought >> he even thought it's a bad idea to arm them if to go to perform a regime change even he said it's a bad idea we agreed on that but he told me Mario it's potentially a tactic to pressure the regime so they cuz there's also talks and the foreign minister said it himself the Iranian foreign minister said they don't want peace they don't want an end for the war they haven't requested a ceasefire and they don't want to negotiate with the West and the argument for that is that Iran wants to cause so much damage to America and their allies that no one dares to attack Iran ever again. So for them, this is a time where either they they fight till their their end, the regime's end or they fight till the end of any aggression against them and the lifting of the sanctions where they agree on some middle ground. But any short-term end to this war like the 12-day war is not something that the regime would like. So putting all this together, the arming of the Kurdish militias, the depletion of the munitions, which another point there is the expensive air defense missiles versus the drones. Drones cost 30,000. A defense missiles are 2 to3 million if my numbers are correct. And you put that into the fact that Iran does not want to end this war now. Um what do you make of all this putting all the puzzle pieces together? What does Trump want? What does Iran want? And what is that going to end up looking like? >> Yeah. Um first off, the Kurds. Okay, we abandoned the Kurds, right? We used the Kurds when it was useful. United States did. Used it when they were useful to us and then when they weren't useful, we threw them out. Threw them under the bus in Syria, visav Turkey. We threw them under the bus. And this happened very recently. I mean, this is not within a year, you know, we they this is fresh memory. Um, all of a sudden, we're talking about the Kurds four days into this thing. Oh, we better go talk to them and see if they will do this. This in this smells to me like a uh reactionary unplanned uh unplanned situation. So So it's not very well planned out. Plus the Kurds, what makes anyone think that the Kurds want to uh do our bidding once again in a disrupting a nation? Um they're not going to be particularly effective at it. Uh they don't like us. We screwed them over multiple times.

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